Sunday, May 15, 2016

Post date: May 15, 2016 12:24:06 PM

Sunday, May 15, 2016 @ 0715 CDT: Yesterday was our final day with the Tour 1 chasers. Theresa, Justin and Ashley, we're gonna miss you! We've had a great two weeks with you guys! Two tornadoes, great structure, lots of hail and LOTS AND LOTS OF FANTASTIC FOOD! Hahahahaha! Come on back and we'll do it all over again!

Today also marked the arrival of our Tour 2 chasers, too. It's going to be a three-vehicle convoy for the next two weeks, and we're all going to have a blast! It looks like it's going to be a very nice mixture of seasoned Cloud 9 veterans and some new chasers as well, so the combination should be a lot of fun. Let's just hope that Mother Nature does her part towards the adventure.

You can see a few pictures from our changeover day HERE (https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May14/).

As for today's plans, we're getting an early start out of Norman, OK, as was the case when we started Tour 1. At the moment it looks like we're going to head down into Texas... potentially even into New Mexico. Will we have anything good to chase? Time will tell... but as always, I'll do my best to keep you all up-to-date on what happens!

As always, you can get the most updated information that I have posted on my Twitter feed, which you can see by going to the following link: https://twitter.com/StickerThad

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE NM AND WEST TX...

...ERN NM/WEST TX/FAR SE CO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WEST TX AND ERN NM. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING EWD TOWARD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BIG BEND NWD TO NEAR ROSWELL NM INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS DOWNDRAFTS MATURE AND CELLS MOVE INTO MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL FURTHER TO THE NORTH FROM THE WEST EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WWD INTO NERN NM WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY DROPPING OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

Sunday, May 15, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: We have left Norman, OK, and are headed to New Mexico! There's no way that we can make it to the 5% area, though.