Monday, May 9, 2016
Post date: May 9, 2016 2:08:04 PM
Monday, May 9, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: Yesterday we headed towards the south-central Kansas area, thinking that initiation would probably be somewhere just south of there... likely in the vicinity of Coldwater, OK. While we were waiting for all that to happen, we had the opportunity to visit the Dodge City National Weather Service, which was very cool. Then we headed back to Greensburg, KS, once again, where they continue to recover from the devastating tornado that nearly wiped the town off the face of the planet in 2007. The "World's Largest Hand Dug Well" has always been a draw for our group, so we had to go visit there.
All in all, with the enhanced risk for the day, there was a large chaser convergence, and we got to see lots of Doppler trucks and see some old friends. It was especially good that I was able to see you, Chris Kridler and Chris Collura!
Oh, and as for the storms? They simply didn't cooperate. *sigh* We got to see some pretty decent structure, and there were several times that conditions looked like a tornado was imminent, but it just never happened. Oh well! We will continue doing the best we can with whatever Mother Nature throws our way, I promise!
Anyway, you can see a few of the pictures from our excellent chase day right HERE (https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May08/).
As for today
...
SPC AC 091250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX REGION TO SRN OZARKS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN NEB/SRN IA/WRN IL TO E TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SLGT RISK...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... OZARKS AND ARKLATEX. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS... BROAD CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER NEB PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY TODAY... WHILE BECOMING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD REACH SERN SD... NEB/IA BORDER AREA AND ERN KS BY 12Z. THAT WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS NRN ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED 500-MB LOW DIGGING SEWD FROM BC ACROSS INTERIOR PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. ON SMALLER SCALES... TWO PRIMARY PERTURBATIONS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM THAT WILL INFLUENCE OUTLOOK AREAS TODAY...
1. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN CO IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD TO WRN OK BY 00Z... THEN WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER OZARKS THROUGH 12Z.
2. POSITIVELY TILTED/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW LOCATED FROM SERN NM ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA -- SHOULD ELONGATE AND ACCELERATE ACROSS SRN PLAINS TODAY... REACHING SERN OK AND E-CENTRAL THROUGH SW TX BY 00Z. NRN PORTION OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL SEPARATE AND MERGE WITH CO TROUGH BY END OF PERIOD... WHILE SRN PORTION REMAINS POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTS SEWD TO UPPER/MIDDLE TX COAST AND S-CENTRAL TX.
Monday, May 9, 2016 @ 1200 CDT: The 1630Z update is out, and here's what it shows. We're headed south and east, in hopes of a chance late this afternoon...
SPC AC 091628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND MUCH OF AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... OZARKS AND ARKLATEX. TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG... AND FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT... BUT THE MAIN TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO RAMP UP AS THE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON... AND INTO AR DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA... SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS AFFECTING THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO RISK ACROSS MUCH OF AR BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MS RIVER.
...HART/GLEASON.. 05/09/2016
Monday, May 9, 2016 @ 2240 CDT: Wow! MASSIVE hail, and TWO tornadoes today! They weren't photogenic, but they were there! Photos and/or video will have to wait. Need sleep!