Monday, May 16, 2016
Post date: May 16, 2016 2:06:58 PM
Monday, May 16, 2016 @ 0900 CDT: Tour 2 left Norman, OK, early yesterday, hoping to get into position in eastern New Mexico or the western panhandle of Texas by the time the storms started popping up (...since there was no way that we could get down to southwestern Texas in time for those storms). As it turned out, though, after we hung around at a Flying J in Tucumcari, NM for a few hours, we saw that all of the storm cells were dying just east of Albuquerque as they were clearing the mountains there. We decided to call it quits for the day and headed back to Amarillo for the night. Even so, we ended up doing ourselves a favor (we hope!) with regards to our chase today. And, of course, while in Amarillo, we headed to dinner at...
... drum roll, please ...
THE BIG TEXAN!
I'm sure you're all surprised, huh? NOT!
Anyway, you can see a few pictures from our first day of Tour 2 HERE (https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May15/).
As for today's plans, here's the SPC's present opinion:
SPC AC 161250
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND WRN/NRN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE CO SEWD INTO PARTS OF OK AND NW TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG BEND NNE INTO SRN KS...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPR TX AND LA GULF CSTS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL... DAMAGING WIND... AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER WEST TEXAS... THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH TUE AS ID LOW SETTLES SLOWLY S ACROSS THE GRT BASIN AND ELONGATED TROUGH/LOW PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/GRT LKS AND NEW ENGLAND. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WRN AND SRN FLANKS OF THE GRT BASIN SYSTEM INTO THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER S... IMPULSE NOW CROSSING DEEP S TX SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO NEAR LCH THIS EVE... AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY TUE.
WLY MID-LVL FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF GRT BASIN LOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY. IN RESPONSE... LOW-LVL SSELY FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND OK. BUT CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OH VLY /DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SPLIT/ WILL REINFORCE SFC RIDGE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING FROM THE SWRN STATES... AND DRIVE A REINFORCING SURGE OF LOW-LVL COLD AIR SWD INTO W TX AND NW OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...SE CO ESE INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES AND MUCH OF OK TODAY/TNGT...
SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW AND DOWNWARD MIXING IN WAKE OF SMALL MESOSYSTEM NOW OVER NW OK SHOULD SUPPORT APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTENING OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF TX-OK PANHANDLES LATER TODAY... WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPR 50S F. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE MATTER... IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES REGION LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING... CONFLUENCE OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE... AND MODEST UPSLOPE COMPONENTS... SETUP SHOULD PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO.
THE CO-NM STORMS SHOULD BUILD SSE ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE OK-TX PANHANDLES LATER IN THE AFTN AS HEATING ERODES SIZABLE EML CIN. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESE ACROSS SRN KS. 40-50KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.
FOCUSED AREA OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES. ULTIMATELY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN ESE OR SE-MOVING COMPLEX OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/NRN OK. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MCS COULD CONTINUE YIELD SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES... ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WIND... THROUGH LATE TNGT.
...W TX DRY LINE AFTN/EVE...
40 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN W TX LATER TODAY. WHILE THE REGION WILL BE REMOVED FROM UPR IMPULSE CROSSING THE PANHANDLE... COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THE DRY LINE MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LATE-DAY STORMS. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F AND SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG... THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEFORE WEAKENING WITH SUNSET.
...MIDDLE/UPR TX GULF CST INTO CSTL LA TODAY/TNGT...
LONG-TERM RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS/MCV NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST WILL PERSIST AND MOVE GENERALLY ENE THROUGH TNGT WITH ATTENDANT UPR IMPULSE. W TO WNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT GIVEN MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND PERSISTENT LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE INVOF ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH... POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES/SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO... MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST.
..CORFIDI/COOK.. 05/16/2016
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Monday, May 16, 2016 @ 1145 CDT: The 1630z update is out!
