May 23, 2013

Post date: May 23, 2013 2:24:40 PM

Thursday, May 23 @0915 CDT: After a travel day yesterday --- including a wonderful reunion with Chris' very good friend Dave Lieb and a salute to our fallen friend (and a few more pictures from the day can be found HERE) --- we're ready to chase... and it looks like we will have pretty decent conditions, too! The SPC has set today as a MODERATE RISK for our area of interest, and we're nicely positioned for it. Wish us luck! We want to see a beautiful, photogenic tornado out in the middle of nowhere... and dedicate it to Chris.

Cross your fingers.

Thursday, May 23 @1130 CDT: The 1630z update is out, and it's much like what I read earlier this morning. Here's the full text from the SPC:

SPC AC 231620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1120 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...

WHILE THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A BIT LESS PROMINENT... LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW OVER THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO CHANGE. IN THE EAST...THE TRANSITION OF A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION... TO THE SOUTH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME... A DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO THE ROCKIES. A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OR BECOME MORE PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION MAY HAVE AT LEAST A GLANCING IMPACT ON PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... HOWEVER.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...

AHEAD/EAST OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION... MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION... SOME CONVECTIVE... IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY... AND IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY. THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEATING AND WEAK TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION... THE STRONGEST OF WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH... EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

WHERE SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION IS ABLE TO TAKE PLACE... SHEAR AND MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... CONTRIBUTING TO STORM MOTION AND ORGANIZATION. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS... WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OR A TORNADO.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE SEVERE STORM/SMALL STORM CLUSTER THAT EVOLVED FROM A LARGER SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH NEW INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... IN THE PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE DRYLINE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR CONTINUING WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY... MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING FOR STORM INITIATION ON THE DRYLINE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS/GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION... EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO INTO AREAS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS NEAR/SOUTH OF CHILDRESS. THIS IS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS... BEFORE CONSIDERABLE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE... BUT TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE HINDERED BY WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY GENERATE CONSIDERABLE OUTFLOW.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE BASINS WEST/SOUTH OF THE LARAMIE AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS OF WYOMING... THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... SOME OF WHICH COULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTH/EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA.

..KERR/BUNTING.. 05/23/2013

Essentially, we're in an area that could produce some good supercells and some significantly large hail.

Here's yesterday's travel map, too: