Thursday, May 19, 2011

Post date: May 19, 2011 1:47:59 PM

0830 CDT: Well, yesterday was a total bust. Nothing ever happened. We sat in the middle of a tornado-warned area, watching skies that simply refused to produce a thunderstorm... much less a mesocyclone. And this morning's look at conditions don't look nearly as good for today as I had hoped, either. Well, I guess all you can do is go for it and hope for the best, right? Here are the SPC graphics for the final three days for Tour 1. We REALLY need something to pan out for us... ASAP!

1130 CDT: It appears that there are two areas of interest, with one to the north and one to the south. We're probably going to head toward Greensburg, KS and keep an eye on both spots, waiting to see which one we will eventually commit ourselves to.

For now, here's yesterday's travel map:

...and for those of you who are interested, shots from yesterday can be found HERE.

1240 CDT: An MCD has been issued for our vicinity...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191730Z - 191800Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL KS WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG AND INVOF THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER AND THEN THROUGH CDS TO WEST CENTRAL TX. ONGOING STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE COMBINED WITH AN ENHANCED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM KING TO CHILDRESS COUNTIES TX ARE SUPPORTING DEEPER CU DEVELOPMENT.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED BACKING OF MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NNE WITH TORNADOES BECOMING LIKELY AS CELLS MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER VALUES OF EFFECTIVE SRH LOCATED ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE.

..PETERS.. 05/19/2011