Saturday, May 7, 2016

Post date: May 7, 2016 3:08:02 PM

Saturday, May 7, 2016 @ 0900 MDT: After a short ride north (from Lamar, CO to Burlington, CO), we rolled into town before our hotel rooms were ready, so we decided to check out the local museum --- called the Old Town Museum (http://www.burlingtoncolo.com/index.aspx?nid=162). I figured it would be kinda cheesy, but it was actually pretty cool!

After we finished there, Charles noticed that there was a cell of interest to the northwest of town, so we figured it was worth heading out to take a look. Well, long story short, it faded... really REALLY fast... but hopefully that was just a practice run for the storms that we're going see during the next few days... Right?

In any case, you can see a few of the pictures from our day right HERE (https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May06/).

So here's the way it looks at the moment for today's chase, and also for tomorrow and Monday. Are we going to see some great storms? We sure hope so! As usual, I will do my best to show you whatever happens!

SPC AC 071258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0758 AM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING OH VALLEY SLGT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN ID TO NERN KS AND SWRN KS TO SW TX...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

--- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ---

...SYNOPSIS...

PREVIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...OMEGA-SHAPED BUT NOT STRICTLY BLOCKED UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS THREE MAIN PROCESSES TAKE PLACE...

1. MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY/DELMARVA REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLC BY 00Z AND DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE CYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT FROM...

2. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NWRN ONT AND FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH 06Z...REACHING PORTIONS NY/PA BY 12Z.

3. LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE -- CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER GREAT BASIN AND COVERING MUCH OF WRN CONUS -- SHIFTS SLOWLY ENEWD AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ORBIT THIS FEATURE. BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/SERN AZ -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD TO CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL CO BY 00Z...WITH ERN LOBE INTO W-CENTRAL KS. THIS PERTURBATION WILL SHIFT NNEWD TO CO/NEB BORDER REGION BETWEEN CYS-IML BY END OF PERIOD. AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM NWRN QUE SWWD ACROSS LH...LOWER MI...SRN LM...AND S-CENTRAL IA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN NEB TO NEAR CYS RIDGE. HYBRID LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS DRAWN NW AKO...WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF FRONTAL ZONE IN NWRN CO. WEAK/PAC FRONT EXTENDED FROM NERN CO LOW SSWWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN NM. THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY AS DRYLINE JUST TO ITS E BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED ACROSS ERN CO...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWD TO BIG BEND REGION. INVERTED TROUGH WAS DRAWN NWWD FROM NERN CO LOW...WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS. FRONTAL ZONE MAY SHIFT SOMEWHAT NWD OVER SERN NEB TOWARD EXTREME SERN WY. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT IS FCST TO PROCEED SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER LOWER MI...LH...LE...AND NRN INDIANA TODAY...REACHING NWRN PA...CENTRAL OH AND SRN IL BY 00Z.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN INITIALLY OVER MTNS OF NRN CO/SRN WY AND THEN IN UPSCALE-GROWING ARC OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ACTIVITY WILL THRIVE BEST WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT ZONE WITH STG UPSLOPE-FLOW COMPONENT EXTENDING FROM INVERTED TROUGH AROUND NRN SEMICIRCLE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE...THEN SOMEWHAT SEWD TO SWD INVOF DRYLINE. NERN CO/SWRN NEB/SERN WY CORRIDOR ALSO WILL HAVE MOST STRONGLY BACKED SFC WINDS...LARGEST HODOGRAPHS AND RELATIVE MAXIMA IN BOTH SRH AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE-HAIL/SVR-WIND POTENTIAL...AND ALSO TORNADO RISK WHERE LCL IS RELATIVELY LOW. THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARD WIND WITH ABUNDANT MRGL HAIL AS CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMES MORE INTERMINGLED/QUASI-LINEAR. NRN BOUND OF SVR-WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN BAROCLINIC GRADIENT N OF SFC FRONT.

BUOYANCY IS FCST TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS CO/KS BORDER REGION. NEVERTHELESS...15%/SLGT OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SWD SOMEWHAT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS TOWARD VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED SRN LIMIT OF BOTH...

1. MIDLEVEL VORTICITY AXIS THAT SHOULD PASS FROM SW-NE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS DURING 21-00Z...THEREBY TRANSITIONING FROM LARGE-SCALE DCVA/ASCENT TO DNVA/SUBSIDENCE...AND

2. LEFT-EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET MAX...AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE RISING MOTION.

Saturday, May 7, 2016 @ 1130 MDT: We have left Burlington, CO, and are headed north. The SPC had posted their 1630Z update and have already released a mesoscale discussion for our area. In addition, the SPC has upgraded tomorrow to a MODERATE RISK day. Things are *really* looking up for us!