Thursday, May 26, 2016

Post date: May 26, 2016 2:44:11 PM

Thursday, May 26, 2016 @ 0930 CDT: For a day that was initially going to be a travel day, the conditions yesterday certainly changed rapidly! We were surprised with a cell south of Minneapolis, KS, where we saw a tornado from birth to quick death. Then we witnessed the birth of what would be an absolute MONSTER tornado, chasing it from near Solomon, KS until around Chapman, KS (almost 90 minutes later) when there was not enough light to safely chase it. This thing was one of the most intense and long-lasting tornadoes that I have ever seen, and it was a huge threat to the people of Chapman, KS! As far as I am aware now, no one was killed or injured by it, so I am very very thankful for that!

Even though I have not yet processed photos from yesterday's surprisingly great chase, I **did** finish the photos from Tuesday's awesome chase day! You can see them HERE: https://kingkey.smugmug.com/TornadoChase/Chase-2016/2016May24/ I will try to get yesterday's shots processed ASAP and share them with you.

As for today, it looks to be yet ANOTHER great chase day. I have included the SPC's description below.

Keep up with my latest updates on Twitter, which you can see by going to https://twitter.com/StickerThad.

SPC AC 261300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0800 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN KS AND SRN NEB...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF W CENTRAL AND SW TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AND EXTENDING INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS VICINITY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER NM TODAY AND REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A RELATED LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN TODAY NEAR THE SW CORNER OF KS... AS A OUTFLOW-REINFORCED SURFACE FRONT DEVELOPS NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL KS TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S IS PRESENT S OF THE BOUNDARY AND E OF A DRYLINE THAT ARCS SWWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE W TX/SE NM BORDER. THIS RICH MOISTURE LIES BENEATH A PLUME OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE COMBINATION OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THE INITIAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS... BUT THERE ARE SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT ARE ALREADY BECOMING APPARENT THIS MORNING. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL TX... WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO NW TX. SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY NEAR SJT... HAS RESULTED IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR FROM ABOVE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MIDLEVELS... ESPECIALLY FROM N TX ACROSS OK.

DURING THE AFTERNOON... IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT IN KS WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM THREAT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE STABILIZING AFFECTS OF THE EARLY TX/OK CONVECTION... THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND MODE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT EVEN IN KS. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM BY EARLY AFTERNOON... AND CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE CLOSER TO THE KS/OK BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD NEWD. AGAIN... THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE GREATER WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY... AND DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING... THE SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE COMPLEX WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND LIKELY OUTFLOW/STABILIZING INFLUENCES. AS SUCH... THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO RISK SHOULD PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN KS OR EXTREME SRN NEB... PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. FARTHER S... VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE BY THIS EVENING INVOF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK TO W TX. THE LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION... AND WIND PROFILES WITH PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL BACKING BOTH CAST DOUBT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK FROM NW AND N CENTRAL TX INTO OK. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF W CENTRAL/SW TX... TO THE W-SW OF THE EARLY CENTRAL TX CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME N OF THE LEE CYCLONE/SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD INTO SE AND E CENTRAL CO TODAY BENEATH LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT /IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER NM/ WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/26/2016