Thursday, May 10, 2012

Post date: May 10, 2012 1:52:40 PM

0840 CDT: It looks like we may have something to chase today! Wooohoooo!!! Okay okay, so we're not exactly talking about an outbreak, but we've got a chance, so let's do it! Here's the map, along with the text from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC):

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN THROUGH SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH NRN MEXICO UPR LOW CONTINUING E TO ENE INTO CNTRL TX AS LWR GRT LKS TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES UPON MOVING E INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...POSITIVE-TILT PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN PLNS BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL ZONE THAT ENTERED THE LWR RIO GRANDE ON TUE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND REDEVELOP NWD INTO S TX LATER TODAY...WHILE THE ERN PART OF THE SAME BOUNDARY CONTINUES SLOWLY SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. THE BOUNDARY...AND ASSOCIATED WAA FIELD...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND ALSO MAY SUPPORT SCTD STRONG STORMS IN FL THIS AFTN. ...S CNTRL INTO S AND SE TX TODAY/TNGT... COMBINATION OF VERY RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS/...INCREASING WAA/UPR ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW...AND SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF SRN AND SERN TX THIS PERIOD. CURRENT BAND OF SCTD STORMS OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY LIKELY IS BEING FOSTERED BY LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT. THE STORMS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE BAND LIKELY WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION LATER THIS MORNING. WITH AMPLE SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS...SETUP MAY POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT AND IN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENED S/SSELY LLJ IN THE SRN HILL COUNTRY AND/OR THE AREA NEAR DEL RIO. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT E OF APPROACHING UPR LOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG TO SVR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. OTHER SVR STORMS MAY FORM ON THE NRN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVE E INTO S TX. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE MCS...WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TORNADOES TO THE TX CSTL PLN THIS EVE. PARTS OF S CNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL TX GULF CST MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE AND AREA OF AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE APPARENT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPR TX CSTL PLN THROUGH FRI AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO REGION BENEATH FAVORABLE UPR DIFLUENCE.

1150 CDT: Sorry for the delay with this morning's chase update... I was having some problems with my laptop. Hopefully they're resolved now. *crosses fingers* Anyway, we're chasing a storm south of San Antonio at the moment. Hopefully just a precursor to our day in general! *once again crosses fingers*

1645 CDT: It has been a busy day so far --- having seen two tornadoes already --- and we haven't even gotten to our original target location... Laredo, TX. We're on our way there now, so perhaps the main course is yet to come! Regardless, it has already been a great chase day!

Here's a low contrast shot of the first tornado that we saw. (Sorry, but the second one was blocked by trees.)

(Click on the picture for a larger version.)