May 12, 2014

Post date: May 12, 2014 2:24:38 PM

Monday, May 12, 2014 @ 0915 CDT: Three -- count 'em, THREE -- tornadoes, and a what??? An attack by some flying farm irrigation equipment??? Wow, what a day it was! All located around McCool Junction, NE, it was incredible! Fortunately, no one was hurt! Here are some photos from the day.

So today looks to be a late start... Obviously Charles needs to get the windshield replaced on the lead vehicle (and possibly clean a few of the seats *lol*), but once we *do* get going, there's a SLIGHT RISK day that's within reach for a potential chase day. Here's the SPC's outlook:

And here's yesterday's wild travel map:

Monday, May 12, 2014 @ 1200 CDT: The 1630Z update is out, and the 5% tornadic probability area has moved somewhat farther north than it was earlier. With repairs completed on the lead van, we are now leaving Omaha, NE, and will head east. Our initial target area has yet to be determined.

Here's the probability map and the relevant text from the SPC:

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL EDGE EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO GREAT PLAINS. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OBSERVED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL IA WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO UNDERGOING OCCLUSION AS IT DEVELOPS NNEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY WITH THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM ERN IA INTO WI/LOWER MI/OH...AIDED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A BROAD ZONE OF WAA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. A SUBSET OF THESE EARLY-DAY STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE MOIST WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS AS HIGH AS 13-14 G/KG. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.

THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE ACROSS MN/IA INTO WI/NRN IL WHERE A NWD-MIGRATING 30-40 KT SLY LLJ WILL ALIGN WITH THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. WHERE STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOWING AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

Monday, May 12, 2014 @ 1240 CDT: Oh, and by the way... For any of you who saw George's video on The Weather Channel (or elsewhere), for a moment, I was in the video. Fortunately, it catches my best side. *rotflmaoysst* Here's the link, once again, just in case you missed it: http://youtu.be/OrU73suW508