A large part of Russia’s frustration with Ukraine at the moment is due to Ukraine’s attempt to join NATO. Ukraine wishes to join the organization to be more protected from Russia. The two countries have had a rough relationship with each other, much of it going back to World War II.

During World War II, Ukraine was divided. As a part of the Soviet Union when the war broke out, many Ukrainians’ lives shifted when the Germans invaded. While the eastern part of Ukraine, which was deeper into the Soviet Union and further from the Germans, remained strong in its support of the Red Army and communism, the same could not be said of the West, which faced a more complicated situation.

When the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa, the NKVD, the secret police of the Soviet Union, was very unprepared. Those in West Ukraine, where the surprise invasion arrived suddenly, were ordered to get rid of the prison population before the Germans took over. This resulted in large massacres of political prisoners, with historians (National WWII Museum, 2021) estimating the number killed as “somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000 people in dozens of prisons over the course of eight days” (para. 1). Those living in Eastern Ukraine had more time to prepare and did not suffer as heavily. Quickly overrun by the Germans, many Ukrainians in the West worked closely with the SS. Some had already been working with the Germans, though many had fought in the Polish army when Poland was invaded a few years earlier. When the Germans took over western Ukraine, they acted as though they had liberated the land from communism. Hoping to survive the war and avoid suffering, those living in Western Ukraine took up jobs from the SS, while those in the East still strongly supported the Red Army. Even after the war ended, a rift remained between those in the East and West.

With very different experiences during World War II and vastly different ideologies, it was hard for Ukraine to feel united even once the war had ended. Both sides experienced terrible damages, and while many came from the Germans, many more were also the results of Soviet actions. Anger against the Soviet Union grew strong in the West Ukrainians, who had been invaded and occupied by the Germans. Though the East did not experience as much loss, it had also grown icy with the Soviet Union. However, to this day, some who live there still strongly support Russia, an opinion not shared by those in the West, who are generally against Russia.

Following World War II and the Cold War, there were multiple other occasions in which tensions between Russia and Ukraine were high. In the past, President Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, has made critical remarks on Ukraine, questioning the country’s independence. In 2014, Russia invaded Crimea, catching many countries off guard. Crimea is located along a peninsula and was formally a region of Ukraine before getting annexed. Many were shocked by Russia’s actions, though there was little action from other countries.

The Current Situation

So why does Russia care about its neighboring countries?

One major reason is that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be easier for the country to develop or receive nuclear weapons, which it could position extremely close to Moscow due to the country’s strategic position.

Over the last few months, Russia has been increasing its number of troops by the Ukraine border. The recent military buildup has been so concerning that many European countries have started shipping weapons and supplies to Ukraine in preparation of a possible invasion. There are concerns that Russia, which invaded a region of Ukraine and annexed Crimea eight years ago, may have plans to invade the neighboring country again over concerns Ukraine may join NATO. However, the EU and some countries still remain hopeful for peace.

The US recently accused Russia of planning to stage an attack by Ukraine to justify an invasion, though many remain split on the claim. In response, Putin and the Russians are accusing the US and other western countries of pushing Russia toward war. Many Russian citizens also appear to be upset with the West.

The president of Ukraine stated that he believed the actions of other countries recently was making the military buildup along the border seem more serious than it actually was. Some Ukrainians shared his feelings, though others remained uncertain and cautious about the future.

At the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, Xi Jinping, the president of China, and Putin met up in person. Both agreed they don’t want NATO expanding. During their meeting, Putin agreed with Xi about his concerns with Taiwan. Over the past few months, China has increased military activity around Taiwan.

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, went to Moscow to speak with Putin about the invasion threat. Many EU diplomats are pleased with Macron’s efforts to aim for peace. After the meeting, Macron (BBC, 2022) paid Ukrainian President Zelensky a visit to inform him that “there would be no deterioration or escalation” (para. 3) with the threat of a Russian invasion. However, Russia responded claiming there would be no guarantee.

While the two were discussing the situation with Ukraine, President Biden met up with Chancellor Scholz, the recently-elected chancellor of Germany. During the meeting, it was decided that Nord Stream 2, a pipeline in construction from Russia to Germany, would be shut down if Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany’s lack of action earlier, only sending five thousand helmets to Ukraine and no other support, caused some to call Germany an unreliable ally.

As talks between world leaders and outside speculations increased, Russian troops and weaponry continue to move closer to Ukraine’s eastern border. While there were some weather complications impacting the movement of tanks and other large weaponry, Russians were planning to start massive military drills.

As of February 8, 2022, Russia had placed around 110,000 troops along the Ukraine border, surrounding the country on three sides. In addition to practicing military drills along Ukraine’s border, Russia was also holding military drills in Belarus, one of its close allies. Belarus, a country that borders northern Ukraine, is situated very close to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. On February 10, 2022, President Biden suggested all Americans living in Ukraine should leave immediately due to the increased Russian threats. He stated he would not send troops to rescue Americans still in Ukraine if Russia invades. According to BBC (2022), Biden said “that’s a world war, when Americans and Russians start shooting at one another” (para. 9). Many other world leaders are also suggesting their people leave Ukraine as Ukraine claims Russia is blocking off its access to the sea.

Invasion could even occur during the Olympics. Some believed that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be held off until after the Olympics have ended to avoid stealing attention from Russia’s ally China, while others are not convinced. Just recently, Russia announced it would be decreasing the amount of troops by Ukraine’s border, though it appears at least seven thousand more troops are situated at the border as of February 16, 2022.

As of February 22, 2022, the tension between Ukraine and Russia had increased noticeably. The US claimed Putin had already given the order for invasion. Biden was still willing to meet with Putin to continue talks as long Ukraine was not invaded. After Putin acknowledged the independence of some separatist eastern territories, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline upon hearing what just happened in Ukraine. Ukrainians in the East, who support Russia, have evacuated small cities to allow the Russian troops by the border to practice in Ukraine. Increased shelling in eastern Ukraine has caused thousands to flee so far. Ukrainian officials have claimed they have not fired back at the Russians yet. The separatists claim a few Ukrainians have been killed from the shelling. This may be the start of an invasion.