Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: N/A
Date: 09/07/2014
Event: John Humphrys on climate experts and the "pause": "we can't be sure that they've got it right"
Attribution: BBC Radio 4
People:
John Humphrys: The Committee on Climate Change has warned the government that we're not prepared for the effects of higher temperatures, both in terms of flood defences and places like hospital wards getting too hot, especially for older people. Lord Krebs is the Chairman of the Adaptation Subcommittee on Climate Change - morning to you.
Lord Krebs: Good morning.
John Humphrys: In terms of flood defences, first of all, you're saying three quarters of our flood defences are not properly maintained. So whether there's climate change or not, that's a problem.
Lord Krebs: Yes, we do acknowledge that since 2008 - the July 2007 summers and the subsequent inquiry by Pitt - that a lot of progress has been made. So we're not saying the government hasn't made progress but we're pointing out that the current levels of investment, according to the Environment Agency's figures, will show flat cash up to 2021, and as a consequence, three quarters of all flood defences won't be maintained according to the level that the Environment Agency thinks they should be maintained - and furthermore, 500 projects for new defences are on hold at least until 2019.
John Humphrys: And - and this is, not withstanding what happens to the climate? I mean, whether we are having - going to have abnormal weather or - however you define "abnormal" - or not, they still wouldn't be up to the job.
Lord Krebs: That's correct. Of course, over the next few years the impacts of climate change will only be minimal, but if you look in the longer term - and the projections that come from the Met Office scientists - we would expect extreme rainfall events to become more common, over the decades ahead.
John Humphrys: Yeah, I would say: what do we mean by the longer term? When do we expect - because people, perhaps, will become increasingly sceptical about the whole idea of climate change if it doesn't actually start getting hotter in this country, and they'll say "Well, when is it going to start?" - well, they are saying it now, aren't they.
Lord Krebs: Well, of course, you know, it has got hotter - the average temperature in this country has increased, over the last 50 years.
John Humphrys: Oh yeah, but not the last 14 years, has it.
Lord Krebs: Well, the pause in climate change is much debated, but I think there's no doubt amongst the vast majority of climate experts - the people that we seek advice from, including the Met Office but many others - that climate change is real, it's man-made and it's going to affect this country, not just in terms of increased temperature but in terms of increased rainfall, sea-level rise and very likely increased extreme events such as heatwaves and storms and droughts.
John Humphrys: But, given that they seem to be a bit surprised by what's been happening for the last 14 years, we can't be sure that they've got it right - I mean, in terms of their forecasts - everybody accepts that climate change is happening - pretty well everybody, anyway - but it's these forecasts that are problematic, aren't they?
Lord Krebs: Well, the exact time at which changes will occur is difficult to project but it's as though, you know, you said "Well, it's colder a few days in June than it had been in March, therefore summer isn't happening". You get blips but -
John Humphrys: 14 years is a bit of a blip, isn't it.
Lord Krebs: Not in the longest-term scale which one measures climate change. So we can be confident that towards the middle of this century, the climate in this country will be different and we need to prepare now. There's no point in waiting - it's more cost-effective to invest now, for example in better flood defences, in greater resilience of our infrastructure, than to wait for things to go wrong and then try to put it right after it's gone wrong.
John Humphrys: But something like hot buildings - particularly hospitals, hospital wards especially, in so far as it affects older people - that's the kind of thing we should have done ages ago anyway. Would it might not perhaps be more sensible for people like yourselves to say "Look, we've got to do something about this anyway, whatever happens to the climate, because it's stupid keeping wards in hospitals, for instance, or schoolrooms, so hot."
Lord Krebs: I agree with you that many of the measures that we recommend would be worthwhile doing anyway, but the imperative to do them, for example to make buildings more resilient against heatwaves, will become more and more acute as the climate changes, in the decades ahead. But they're sensible things to do in any case, so it's not really - it's not really a case of argument. It will be sensible to make our buildings resilient against very warm weather, because in fact our analysis suggests that 20% of homes are at risk of overheating, already today, and so, you know, there's a case for doing it now but that case becomes much stronger when you factor in climate change and an aging population, over the decades ahead.
John Humphrys: Lord Krebs, many thanks.