Source: Talk Radio AM640
URL: http://www.640toronto.com/2015/07/05/roy-green-polar-bear-numbers-increasing-or-decreasing/
Date: 05/07/2015
Event: Polar bears "appear to be as abundant and as productive as ever"
Credit: Talk Radio AM640, Roy Green Show
People:
Roy Green: The US Geological Survey just released a report this week, quote, warning "a third of the world's polar bears could be in imminent danger from greenhouse gas emissions as soon as 2025", end quote. "Greenhouse gases are blamed for the climate warming that's reduced the polar bears' summer sea-ice habitat", that's another quote. Except... except... is that, in fact, the truth? In a moment, we're going to ask one of the world's leading scientists dealing with polar bears - Dr. Mitchell Taylor of Lakehead University has spent more than 30 years researching the status and management of polar bears in Canada and around the Arctic Circle, both as an academic and a government employee. Dr. Taylor has spent much time on the ice with bears. And while he supports the view the Arctic has been warming over the past 30 years, he challenges the insistence that polar bear numbers are precipitously decreasing.
Remember that famous photograph of two polar bears standing stranded on a melting iceberg? Al Gore likes to show that one. Well, the fact is, it was just a photograph that was taken because the ice they were standing on was such a striking image. Who said that? The photographer said that. Oh, Dr. Taylor was also barred from attending a meeting of the Polar Bear Specialist Group in Denmark. Why was that? Um, because according to the chairman, it was - quote - "the position you've taken on global warming that brought the opposition."
Dr. Mitchell Taylor joins me on the Roy Green Show, on the Corus Radio Network. We're also, in a moment, going to be speaking with Gabriel Nirlungayuk from Nunavut, and he's the Deputy Minister of the Environment for Nunavut. Mitch, good to have you on the show again - it's been a while.
Mitchell Taylor: Thanks very much, Roy.
Roy Green: And Gabe, it's good to talk to you. Last time you were on, you were also on with Mitch.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Yes Roy, I remember that. Hi Mitch.
Mitchell Taylor: Hello [?], it's good to talk to you again.
Roy Green: All right gentlemen, let me start - you were on the ice with the bears, you know the situation for what it is. When the US Geological Survey releases a report warning a third of the world's polar bears could be in imminent danger from greenhouse gas emissions as soon as 2025, Mitch, what are you hearing? What's the truth of this?
Mitchell Taylor: Well, I'm familiar with the methodology they're using, and in essence it's an expression of their opinion. I guess it's heart-felt but it's certainly not an established fact or anything that's absolute - it's simply their idea of what will happen if the carbon models are correct.
Roy Green: Yeah, you were - you wrote to me that there are only three subpopulations where data suggests a decline. Please explain what that means.
Mitchell Taylor: Well, we do population inventory work, to get scientific perspectives on trend. Um, of the some 13 or 14 populations that we have, actually, trend data on, there are only 3 that are suggesting decline. Two of those, the decline that is suggested is due to overhunting - one of those is disputed - and the other one is the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation, where the workers - researchers that work there are claiming that they've shown a decline.
Roy Green: The Davis Strait subpopulation has been deliberately reduced - why? Why did they do that? How did they do it, and why?
Mitchell Taylor: Well, the Davis Straits subpopulation was under-utilised for many years, and I wasn't at the meetings where they discussed their reasons, but I expect the reasons have to do with too many bears on the ice, causing problems to people that are hunting and camping. And, in addition, I think there's a sense that when too many animals are packed into one area, they start to interfere with each other and perhaps with densities reduced, there might even be higher productivity for that population.
Roy Green: So we're talking about a higher density than is healthy for the bears, potentially. And meanwhile, the USGS is talking about a third of the world's polar bears could be in imminent danger from greenhouse gas emissions as soon as 2025.
Mitchell Taylor: That's right.
Roy Green: The two - the two clash, right?
Mitchell Taylor: Yes and no - there's 19 subpopulations of polar bears. And sea-ice decline is not occurring equally, all across the Circumpolar Basin. Um, but again, 25 years from now - the future's uncertain. It's, um - I think it was 2025, really, so it's only ten years from now, but the future's uncertain and they're suggesting that declines will occur, based on what the climate models, that are driven by carbon dioxide concentrations, suggest. So currently, there's one that's - maybe - in decline from climate effects, and no others. Um, that's hardly a crisis, in my book.
Roy Green: Gabe, you've spent a lot of time on the ice with the bears.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Yes.
Roy Green: Um, you're a Deputy Minister of the Environment for Nunavut. Is the polar bear population, as far as you know and your observations are concerned and your government's observations are concerned, is the polar bear population in danger of precipitous decline?
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Well, um, I think you know this, but in Nunavut the polar bears are heavily protected from overharvesting, and there is a - there are mechanisms like the Wildlife Management Board to set target levels and whatnot, if there is a decline. We have, you know, cut the quotas to even going as far as banning harvest of eight populations, so from natural cycles or overharvesting, if you will, if there is a decline or a seeming decline, then there is an action. But to natural causes, I have - I have yet to see any decline of - negative effects of climate change.
Roy Green: So, so if I understand correctly, there isn't a noticeable decline of bears, because of climate change -
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: No.
Roy Green: - and there isn't a noticeable decline of bears.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: No, again because of - the bears are heavily protected.
Roy Green: Right.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: And for us, living up in the north, where 365 days a year - you know, climate has been evolving over a number of years, bears have been around for hundreds of thousands of years and they've gone through various cycles of climate change. But in my lifetime, anyhow, we haven't - I have yet to see declining of polar bears, of climate change. And one is Western Hudson Bay, which was projected to be in decline 20 years ago - up to now, it should be less than 300 bears but we're seeing that the numbers have not really changed.
Roy Green: Do - er, Mitch, do - does the USGS - you said, earlier, when we talked, you said it was their "opinion". You can't be - you shouldn't be releasing information warning a third of the world's - world's - polar bears could be in imminent danger from greenhouse gas emissions as soon as 2025, if you're basing your - you know, that line on opinion, as opposed to true scientific research. And I don't consider - sorry, but I don't consider computer modelling to be true scientific research.
Mitchell Taylor: Well, the researchers themselves are being clear about what they're basing their prognosis on, and it's called a Bayesian network, sometimes called a belief network, and it's just basically a group of people get together and they put together what they think "What would happen if..."?" and if they take their scenarios from the climate models... So the researchers themselves are not making claims that are being - that are false or hidden somehow in, you know, sort of, papers that are dishonest - it's what people make of those. And partly, sort of, how it's provided, as well, that's where the problem seems to lie. Um, it's - if you accept their arguments, what they say, you know, could come to pass but it's not an empirical result, it's not taken from data, it's simply a collection of the people who contributed to this Bayesian network model.
Roy Green: So if I asked Dr Mitch Taylor -
Mitchell Taylor: Right.
Roy Green: - are the - based on your experience, based on your research, based on your time on the ice - and you were on the ice this spring, right?
Mitchell Taylor: Right.
Roy Green: If I asked Dr. Mitch Taylor to tell me his view of whether polar bears are in danger because of climate change, or in danger of massive population reduction because of climate change, what's Dr. Taylor's reply?
Mitchell Taylor: Well, I'd say: no, not at present. They appear to be as abundant and as productive as ever, in most populations. Again, my perspectives are a little bit dated now, Gabe has some more recent information, but he's saying the same thing I would have said [laughs], eight to ten years ago, when I was more active in the north. Um, and there you have it - Gabe and I have made a Bayesian network model together [laughs] and we have an opposite conclusion to the one the USGS did. But I guess in the north country, where the polar bears live, we prefer to go by the data and by what local people say.
Roy Green: I would - I would want to go with that, too. And Gabe, your sense, as well, is that the polar bears are not in - not in danger of massive decline, significant decline?
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Um, well, I mean we're up there [?] and the polar bears, for us, are very cunning and they're very intelligent and they've, on our Southern Hudson Bay and Western Hudson Bay, they live on the most southerly parts of the polar bear population in the world, and we've yet to see negative effects of climate change. So, if we do, then we'll be the first to tell the rest of the world. But today, we have not yet seen any decline of polar bear population of climate change.
Roy Green: It seems to me that if 25% of the world's polar bear population is in danger of being - imminently being - eradidated because of climate change in 2025 - which is 10 years from now - the first signs of this would have been evident not just today, they would have been evident some time ago. Fair statement?
Mitchell Taylor: Seems fair to me.
Roy Green: [Laughs]. It doesn't just happen overnight.
Mitchell Taylor: [Inaudible] - in 1880, so there's been 135 years of anthropogenic global warming. I guess we're still waiting for the first sign of a crisis.
Roy Green: Okay. Gentlemen, please hold on, I'm going to come back with Dr. Mitchell Taylor and Mr. Gabriel Nirlungayuk, who is the Deputy Minister of the Environment for Nunavut, and Dr. Taylor is lecturer and adjunct professor at Lakehead University - he's one of the world's leading experts on polar bears, stay with us, please.
[Short break.]
Roy Green: I've heard it said that the polar bears are the "canary in the coal mine", as far as climate change is concerned - we hear that, time and again. And so now the US Geological Survey says that by 2025, 25% of the world's polar bear population could be in immanent danger because of climate change. With me are Dr. Mitchell Taylor, he's an adjunct professor at Lakehead University, and Mr. Gabriel Nirlungayuk, who's the Deputy Minister of the Environment for Nunavut. We're talking about the projection by the USGS and others that in 10 years' time, 25% of the world's polar bear population will be in imminent danger because of climate change. And neither Dr. Taylor nor Mr. Nirlungayuk are seeing evidence of that, as far as the bear populations are concerned. So, um, what is going on, then, Mitch? What's the objective, here? Why are we getting this information if it's, you know, it's not - can't back it up? What's the objective, do you think?
Mitchell Taylor: Well, I don't think you can just assume that the researchers that are coming forth with this information are doing so with an ulterior motive. Um, there is evidence of reduced body condition, some reduced survival rate in cubs associated with sea-ice decline. Sea ice has declined, carbon dioxide is increasing, there is a correlation there. I think a lot of, a lot of the researchers are concerned and feel that being precautionary is appropriate, and I think they're, you know, frankly - most people, if you asked them on the street, would say that they believe it, that polar bears are in decline or in crisis because of climate warming. So they get a lot of positive feedback out of stepping up - it's almost a cliche, the scientist steps up and warns of a bad thing happening. And nobody listens, and "Oh no", and then it happens and the scientist saves the world. You know, it's a movie theme.
Roy Green: Well it is, but again, if I'm listening to both of you, there's no evidence to support the position that climate change is causing a precipitous decline in polar bear populations - not now.
Mitchell Taylor: Well once again, they're not saying that it has declined, they're saying that it -
Roy Green: - will, in ten years.
Mitchell Taylor: Yeah.
Roy Green: But the evidence would be noticeable already, I would think... in ten years down the road.
Mitchell Taylor: As Gabe said, they've, they've said that polar bears were declining in Western Hudson Bay, subsequent surveys showed they were wrong... said polar bears were declining in Western Hudson Bay and polar bears are not declining there, polar bears are staying about the same. Local people came forward with that information before the second survey was done. Um, they're suggesting, you know, all these, sort of, dire events but they're - the evidence for them is very weak or when subsequent research is done, you find out that the evidence was in fact wrong. So it's a problem when the dominant perception of most of the people working in a field is inconsistent with the underlying reality. So -
Roy Green: Well, exactly. And then there's also the perception on the street - as you said, where people, by majority, because they hear this information, will say "Well, yeah - polar bears are in decline, because that's what I heard. They're in decline because of climate change". They don't hear the other side of the equation.
Mitchell Taylor: Well, that's true. I speak to students all the time. By the time they enter university, they've already been, sort of, convinced that polar bears are dying out, that the "canary in the coal mine" is dying. And they're, sort of, shocked to find out that not even the people working on polar bears agree with that. They're - they're warning that this will happen, that no-one is seeing it happen yet, it's - they're saying it will happen 25 or 10 years or 50 years into the future, and it's based entirely on carbon model projections. So, it's - it's a different way of, I guess, talking about the world. Sort of a - kind of almost like a crystal ball approach.
Roy Green: Yeah, you know, my weather forecast is based on computer modelling, and the other day they were calling for rain - it was sunshine, and the next day they were calling for sunshine and it rained. I know it's a weak comparison but it's computer modelling. Gabe, is there - so that there's no real concern, if I understand you correctly, in Nunavut, there's no significant concern about a real decline in polar bear population because of climate change.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Well, yeah, I mean that's a very complex position. Um, if we're saying that we're not, er, concerned and, you know, people would say no, we're not concerned and those guys up there don't care. I mean, we do.
Roy Green: I know you care.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: We care for polar bears so we heavily manage polar bears up in Nunavut. One projection that is being made right now is Southern Beaufort Sea and the problem with that survey was that the US, the survey on the US side but they didn't go all the way to the Canadian side, so they see less bears, and that seems to ring a bell - when Western Hudson Bay was being conducted, they were just doing the Manitoba border, not going up to Nunavut border, so there is something... Where have I seen this before? [Mitchell Taylor laughs.] Comment that I'm making, so...
The Southern Beaufort Sea which I'm being on right now is the survey was conducted on the US side and not going on to the Canadian side, and now projections are made on this modelling exercise, which was made again for Western Hudson Bay a few years ago, so if it's true, then we'll be the first, like I said, we'll be the first to go at it. We've been down this road before where we've cut corners and because we perceived a decrease for Western Hudson Bay, that's what we did, but no, today we're not seeing any negative, negative effects of climate change.
Roy Green: Gentlemen, I thank you so much for the time. It's an ongoing issue, an ongoing question, it'll continue and... I really appreciate your joining us - Mitch, thank you very much, Gabe, thank you so much.
Gabriel Nirlungayuk: Thank you.
Mitchell Taylor: You're welcome.
Roy Green: All the best, gentlemen.