Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1833902.stm
Date: 25/02/2002
Event: "Stott vs. Houghton on Today, radio 4"
People:
Philip Stott: I think the IPCC, over the years, has done a most important job, and Sir John Houghton too, but we now need to stand back a little from it. And I think this new publication does three very important things. First, it gives us an insight, in Europe, into the science that's being employed by the Bush administration. We know there are politics, but there's also scientists, and many of them advising Bush. Secondly, it does stress total uncertainty in the science, and therefore thirdly, we have to look at our own energy policies now, in the light of that uncertainty. We are making decisions, at the moment, which are - environmentally - potentially dangerous. We're about to cover beautiful mountains in Wales, and Scotland and the Cotswolds with wind farms in the name of this science.
Sue MacGregor: So you're saying all the renewable energy sources that we hear so much about - I don't know that we're about to cover the whole of Wales with windmills, but anyway -
Philip Stott: Plynlimon already has 250 giant orc-like turbines, for example.
Sue MacGregor: Yes, but you're saying that's really going too far - we don't know enough.
Philip Stott: I think the rush to alternative form of energies - we have to diversify energy - has to be looked at carefully, because all forms of energy production have a downside to them.
Sue MacGregor: Sir John Houghton, do you accept that?
Sir John Houghton: Well, I accept that we have to look very carefully at the way we do things, of course, in terms of renewable energy and any other sort of way of trying to combat the damage which will come from global warming. On the uncertainty question, I think this new report really is rather putting its head in the sand. It quotes the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel, as saying that between 70 and 90% sure that the problem is really very serious, and that the increase in temperature, at the moment, and the changing climate is 70 to 90% due to greenhouse gases, although likely to be. And saying that really isn't enough to take action.
Sue MacGregor: And you think it's dangerous -
Sir John Houghton: Most of us would have thought that was a head-in-the-sand position.
Sue MacGregor: You think it's dangerous not to take action.
Sir John Houghton: Absolutely. And taking action is not difficult. There are lots of things we can do. We can become very much more efficient at very little cost, or even perhaps no cost at all, in many cases. And we can also change the way we get our energy. And the need to do this is very - is becoming very urgent.
Sue MacGregor: Philip Stott, you talked about the science that is part of the advice that President Bush is getting. I mean, obviously some of it runs against what Professor Houghton would believe in, but what is convincing about the science that suggests that it may not be greenhouse gases that's causing global warming?
Philip Stott: Two things, Sue. I don't agree with Sir John, even in terms of his own report. Because there is a famous figure in the last report from the IPCC - Figure 6.6, it's called - which shows - and they admit publicly - they know nothing about 75% of the main factors governing climate change. And there's a wide range of these. And many of them will cause significant changes to our estimates, and I think that to predicate big policy on such uncertain science is dangerous.
Sue MacGregor: Is that right, Sir John, that 75% is uncertain?
Sir John Houghton: No, that's not right. And we've had hundreds of scientists, of course, arguing for three or four years, and producing a report with many thousands of references, and very well researched, very well argued, very well refereed. And the scientists have - including most of the leading scientists in the world - have agreed that we are certain about some things, or fairly certain, or almost certain about some -
Sue MacGregor: So you're saying press on with current policy, which is followed by most countries but not necessarily the United States. Cut back pollution urgently.
Sir John Houghton: That's right. And the United States has to join in, of course. And President Bush has to get better advice.
Sue MacGregor: Professor Stott?
Philip Stott: I think we all want to cut back pollution. But I think the link with climate is potentially dangerous. There are many good reasons for controlling pollution, such as asthma in children, that we've just been discussing recently. The climate link is potentially dangerous, because I think climate will do something which is totally unpredictable.