Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: N/A
Date: 01/07/2003
Event: By the year 2020, "Britain will face an almost routine threat of serious power cuts"
People:
Edward Stourton: The Institution of Civil Engineers says that by the year 2020, Britain will face an almost routine threat of serious power cuts, because we'll rely so heavily on energy from unstable parts of the world. David Anderson, who chairs the Institution's energy board, is the author of the report. Mr Anderson, can you take us through the logic that gets you to this conclusion?
David Anderson: I think our concern starts with the White Paper, and what it actually said. It's obviously looking for 20% to come from energy conservation, 20% from renewables - which is a very bold target - by 2020, and the rest of the slack will be made up from gas generation.
Edward Stourton: So the government's commitment, in the long term, is to rely heavily on gas. And you don't believe that we've got enough gas available to us in stable parts of the world.
David Anderson: Well, yes that's right. We become a net importer of gas very shortly. We'll then extend to the Norwegian fields. And certainly we'll need to extend the infrastructure beyond that, to Russia, North Africa and Iran. Russia and Iran, for instance, have half the natural gas reserves in the world.
Edward Stourton: And you can - you can predict this with certainty, can you? I mean, there aren't - you're not making assumptions?
David Anderson: Well, [laughs] the entire energy review is founded on assumptions. We - I think the Norwegian gas fields may well be extended, but the rest of Europe are moving towards gas as well. And therefore there'll be heavy demands on the Norwegian gas fields. So gas from other parts of the world, either through the infrastructure extension or through liquid natural gas being brought in - shipped into the country - will be the main courses [?].
Edward Stourton: And on the back of that prediction, you'll be building this rather frightening picture of Britain haunted by three-day week - or three days a week, that we had during the miners' strike - and power cuts an ever-present threat.
David Anderson: Well, the only reason that we actually survived these predicaments because we had fuel diversity. We had strategic stocks of coal, and that allowed us to pass through that. But we also had nuclear and some other sources. I would contend that putting all our eggs in one basket is a narrow-minded strategy.
Edward Stourton: Your conclusion about what the government should do?
David Anderson: Very much look at having a [sic] broad, diverse fuel sources like we currently have. Coal, clean coal, carbon sequestration is one route forward. Although I'm not a proponent of the nuclear build, I certainly think that we should have, in our back pocket, clear understanding of what a nuclear programme would look - its location, what sort of technology we'd use. Because I think in five, seven years' time, we'll certainly come back to this point. And we shouldn't just waste our time.
Edward Stourton: So what are you saying there - so we shouldn't actually build a new nuclear power station, but we should make provision for doing so?
David Anderson: Absolutely.
Edward Stourton: All right. Well, let's put that to the Energy Minister, Stephen Timms, who's also with us. Mr Timms, do you accept the basic thrust of this report, the rather bleak picture it paints, of the threats facing Britain in the year 2020?
Stephen Timms: No, I don't accept the bleak picture. The report is right, that we are going to become a net gas importer over the next few years, and that is a contrast with our own experience in the UK over the past 100 years. The report's quite right about that. But I think, actually, we are going to achieve the diversity that David's just been calling for. Certainly, we're looking at a variety of sources for gas supplies into the UK. We are looking to renewables to provide a growing proportion of our energy. And we haven't ruled out the possibility of new nuclear, either.
Edward Stourton: Let's deal, first, with that point you make about looking for various other sources of gas. The point of this report, and I'm just repeating by [?] Mr Anderson, is that you'll quite quickly exhaust the supplies available in what we'd regard as stable countries, and that you'd be forced to rely on parts of the world which are potentially unstable and therefore a threat.
Stephen Timms: Well, I don't agree with that. Of course, we are going to continue to get oil and gas from the North Sea for some time, although it'll account for a dwindling proportion of the total. Norway is going to be a supplier - I don't think Norway is an unstable -
Edward Stourton: No, but his point was there are going to be lots of demands on gas from Norway and other areas like that. And it would quite quickly run out, and you'd be forced to go to Russia, and other countries like that.
Stephen Timms: Well, Russia is interesting, because of course Vladimir Putin was here in the UK last week, to mark a closer partnership between Russia and Britain on gas. And Russia has been a very stable supplier of gas to Europe for 20 years or more. And there is very major new investments by Shell, BP, UK companies, in Russian energy. I think Russia is going to an important and a stable supplier.
Edward Stourton: So actually you do accept the broad thrust of what this report says. You just have a different view of the way that the countries, from which we all are going to be getting our energy, are going to develop.
Stephen Timms: I think we've taken good account, in the White Paper, of the changing energy requirements and the patterns of supply, over the next 20 years. There are some major issues for us to address, but I think we're on track for doing so.
Edward Stourton: Well, what about some of the solutions that Mr Anderson suggested, for example a willingness to contemplate the possibility of a new nuclear power station?
Stephen Timms: Well, we haven't ruled out new nuclear capacity, we made that very clear in the White Paper. There would, I think, need to be a great deal of public reassurance before that could be embarked on, and some convincing answers to people's questions about the disposal of nuclear waste. But we haven't ruled it out, and it may well be the right thing to do in a few years' time, as David suggested.
Edward Stourton: It would be a source of huge public debate, though, wouldn't it.
Stephen Timms: It would be a very major debate, and I think a great deal of reassurance would be needed before we could take that step. We're certainly not in that position now, and we don't need to be, either.
Edward Stourton: Well, the question underlying the basic thrust of the report is whether this whole - whole direction that your White Paper is taking us in, is the right one, and that it doesn't limit our options too severely, when it comes to the resources that we seek our energy from.
Stephen Timms: No, I think the direction is right. The report is correct, that we're going to become a net energy importer, and that is an unfamiliar position for the UK to be in. But actually it is the position in which most industrialised countries have long been in. They've managed the position well - and I'm absolutely certain that we can, as well, given diverse sources -
Edward Stourton: But that's the point - the question about the diversity of the sources that we're getting the energy from...
Stephen Timms: Yeah. And I've talked about Russia. There's new capacity on the interconnectors being developed with the Netherlands, with Belgium - we're looking at liquefied natural gas imports, with planning permission for a new development at Milford Haven. So there is a wide variety of new routes being developed.
Edward Stourton: Your response to this report is "Jolly interesting, but thanks very much, we'll go on as we are."
Stephen Timms: I think we're well set to achieve the diversity that the report rightly says we're going to need.
Edward Stourton: Stephen Timms, thank you.
Stephen Timms: Thank you.