Source: BBC2: Andrew Neil Show
URL: N/A
Date: 09/10/2019
Event: Andrew Neil: "I see no reference to billions of people going to die"
Credit: BBC2
People:
Andrew Neil: Now, Brexit isn't the only game in town this week - Extinction Rebellion protesters have brought Westminster to a standstill with a storm of their own, descending in their thousands on the heart of government, where they plan to see out a full two weeks of carefully coordinated disruption, the latest in a worldwide effort to tackle the climate change problem. I'm now joined by Zion Lights, she's a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion - welcome. I've seen some of your activists claim on TV that billions of people are going to die in quite short order. One of your founders, Roger Hallam, said in April our children are going to die in the next 10 to 20 years. What's the scientific basis for these claims?
Zion Lights: So, these claims have been disputed, admittedly - there are some scientists who are agreeing, and there are some who are saying that they're simply not true. But, you know, the overall issue is that these deaths are going to happen - we don't know exact numbers and actually it's a little bit, um, you know, concerning to focus on just how many deaths - there will be deaths and mass suffering, and any amount is enough, as far as we're concerned.
Andrew Neil: But most scientists don't agree with this, climate change scientists, those who know there is a problem and it has to be tackled, that things have to be done - more has to be done than is being done. I looked through the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the latest AR5 and the October of last year Special Report - I see no reference to billions of people going to die, or children going to die in under 20 years.
Zion Lights: Well, we're not claim- I don't think he was claiming that that was from that report -
Andrew Neil: No, I know that, but -
Zion Lights: Right.
Andrew Neil: - what I'm saying is: I don't know where the scientific validity comes for that, I mean -
Zion Lights: So there's a lot -
Andrew Neil: - how would they die?
Zion Lights: Mass migration around the world already taking place, due to prolonged drought in countries, particularly in South Asia - there are wildfires in Indonesia, the Amazon rain forest, also Siberia, you know, the Arctic -
Andrew Neil: These are all -
Zion Lights: - [inaudible] death and suffering -
Andrew Neil: - these are all really important problems and they can cause fatalities. But they don't cause billions of deaths. They don't mean that our young people will all be dead in 20 years.
Zion Lights: No, perhaps not in 20 years, but - I can't speak to what Roger was, um, you know -
Andrew Neil: He's one of your founders.
Zion Lights: - meaning with that. He's one of the members of Extinction Rebellion, yes.
Andrew Neil: I mean, you talk [about] weather-related disasters - there seem to be a lot of them around, at the moment, and people die from them. But the latest figures I've seen, a hundred years ago weather-related disasters killed half a million people a year. Today it's 20,000 a year - still 20,000 too many, but it's a reduction of 95,000. It doesn't lead to the - 95%, a reduction of 95% - it does not lead to a death of "billions". I mean, you're scaring people with this rhetoric, aren't you.
Zion Lights: I think - I think there's a danger of scaring people, simply because we're not taking it seriously enough, and people are feeling really, you know, desperate that we're heard on this, and unfortunately, you know, alarmist languge works, which is why we're discussing it right now.
Andrew Neil: But does it work? It could - I mean, I've seen young girls on television - part of your demonstrations, particularly the school ones, when they take the day off to demonstrate - crying, because they think they're going to die in five or six years' time -
Zion Lights: No, it's not necessarily -
Andrew Neil: - crying, because they don't think they'll ever see adulthood. And yet there is no scientific basis for the claims that your organisation is making.
Zion Lights: The young people that I've spoken to aren't crying because they think they're going to die in a few years, it's because they don't see their children as having a future - they don't want to have children, and they're worrying about, you know, coastal regions going under water, other countries, island nations going under water, you know, the Maldives going under water, the mass displacement that's happening, the weather extremes which may - may be on a downward trajectory but climate scientists are telling us they'll be on the increase.
Andrew Neil: Well, take, um, rising sea levels, 'cause the sea levels are rising, there's no [doubt] - the UN IPCC makes that quite clear. But even the UN IPCC says that its median projection for sea rising is half a metre by 21 hundred, by 2100, at the end of this century. Now, that will create problems for places from Miami to Bangladesh - but half a metre will not result in billions of people dying. If we do the right thing, it could be managed.
Zion Lights: If we do the right thing, but we're not doing much at all, at the moment, so this is one of the problems.
Andrew Neil: But you accept that half a metre would not - if the UN median projection is right, it would not result in the sort of apocalyptic predictions that your organisation makes.
Zion Lights: Well, what I would say is that - they're very conservative numbers, that's what we'd say. And actually a lot of the data in the IPCC report - not criticising scientists, because they did an incredible job - using pre-industrial levels of data, they're looking at, you know, carbon emissions, they've not looked at factoring feedback loops, things like this. There are climate scientists saying now that we think it's a lot worse - you know, James Hansen, ex-NASA scientist, is saying we're in a planetary emergency, so we're using that language. We're not - we're not trying to use alarmist language - we're listening to what scientists are saying, and using language that we feel is appropriate to the situation.
Andrew Neil: You are - you are using alarmist language - one of your other founders said that she thought everybody could be dead within several decades - 97% was the figure she put on it. But you want - at the moment, the IPCC policy, the agreed policiy is to try and cut carbon emissions in half by 2030 and go to zero net emissions by 2050. But you want 2025 for zero emissions - only six years away. What would that require?
Zion Lights: I mean, I'm not here to give you solutions and to tell you what we should be doing, that's not -
Andrew Neil: Why not - you're gumming up the whole of Westminster for your cause.
Zion Lights: Well, what we're saying is listen to the experts, we're saying listen to the experts, let's listen to what their ideas are, what they're saying, and at the moment we're not putting those plans in place, we're not creating policies that reflect what those scientists are saying. This is why we're protesting.
Andrew Neil: But the experts have consensus around getting net zero by 2050. You're saying 2025 - you're not listening to the experts.
Zion Lights: There's some interesting - well, there's some research into the IPCC report that's more recent, by Professor Michael Mann, who looked at where they came up with the 2050 figure, and actually they're relying on a carbon capture biogas energy storage - BECCS - and there's a problem with that, it's an untested technology and by relying on that, there's a 50-50 chance that we will fail with the 2050 year in place.
Andrew Neil: You can always pick one piece of research - the fact is, the IPCC report has 6,000 scientific references, 91 authors and is a global consensus with review editors from 40 countries. But let's come back to the 2025 target - one critic has said it would mean the confiscation of petrol cars, state rationing of meat and limiting families to one flight every five years. And that was actually on a 2030 target. Do you agree with that?
Zion Lights: I agree that we need to do whatever it takes to bring emissions down, to, you know, allow young people to have a future, you know, be able to have some, some hope for the future, and I'm not - I'm not saying that because we're alarming children, I'm listening to what they're saying. They're learning about the consequences of climate change at school, and they're worrying about -
Andrew Neil: Of course - I'm not arguing about the consequences of climate change at all. But you would have to stop - to reach your target, you'd have to stop all flying. Aviation would come to an end.
Zion Lights: Possibly. I mean -
Andrew Neil: By 2025.
Zion Lights: Again, this is not - this is something that we need to look at - we need to look at the aviation industry and we need to do an analysis on what needs to happen and then we need to take action -
Andrew Neil: But we know what would -
Zion Lights: - on all industries - agriculture, energy, everything. I'm not claiming to be an expert in all these areas.
Andrew Neil: We know what would happen if we stopped all flying. It would reduce global temperatures, using the mainstream climate models, by 0.03 degrees - 0.03 degrees. And you would stop all flying, for that?
Zion Lights: But what you've just said, with the IPCC report - we're both in agreement that we listen to that 99% consensus of scientists - that's great, we agree with that. So that report is saying if we don't bring emissions down, to halt warming -
Andrew Neil: I understand -
Zion Lights: to 0.5 degrees, so aren't we in agreement that we have to -
Andrew Neil: It's the 2025 target, which is -
Zion Lights: - it's the precautionary principle -
Andrew Neil: - the keystone of your policy.
Zion Lights: - it's the precautionary principle that -
Andrew Neil: Let me just as you this - in this country, most homes are heated by gas, most people cook with gas. The fact is, all of that would have to go in six years, for a 2025 target, wouldn't it. All of it.
Zion Lights: We put a man on the moon before we had the internet and mobile phones. We made an international space station - 16 countries worked together to make this and send the parts into space independently, using math, and assemble it in space. If we really wanted to tackle this emergency, Dr. James Hansen, an ex-NASA scientist, calling it a "planetary emergency", Lord Stern -
Andrew Neil: So no cooking with gas or heating with gas, in six years' time.
Zion Lights: But we've had 30 years to think of better solutions, and now is the time to act to bring down those emissions -
Andrew Neil: All right...
Zion Lights: - before it's too late.
Andrew Neil: Zion Lights, I had more to ask you, I hope you'll come back to continue the debate - it's an important subject. Thank you for being with us. That's it for tonight - I'll be back here next week at 7 o'clock. See you then.