20041012_R4

Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme

URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listenagain/ram/today3_climate_20041012.ram

Date: 12/10/2004

Event: Elliot Morley on climate change - "those few dissident voices" are like Flat-Earthers

Credit: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme

People:

Sir David King: Chief Scientific Adviser to H.M. Government, UK
Bjorn Lomborg: Author, academic and environmental writer
Sarah Montague: Presenter, BBC Radio 4 Today Programme
Elliot Morley: UK Minister of State for the Environment and Agri-Environment

Sarah Montague: We've been hearing warnings that the rate at which global warming gases are accumulating in the atmosphere has taken a sharp leap upwards. The jump in carbon dioxide emissions, over the past two years, is as yet difficult to explain. The government's Chief Scientific Adviser, Dr. David King, is due to discuss the global warming threat in a Greenpeace business lecture tonight. He puts the increase in emissions down to overuse of fossil fuels.

Sir David King: The point is, we do know what the origin of this problem is. It's not a natural occurrence. What we're seeing is that over the past million years, we know that through every ice age and warm period the variation has been below 270 parts per million. We're now exceeding that, and accelerating because of our use of fossil fuels. So, we are burning up the reserves of carbon that were kept in the globe at a rate that has never been exceeded before. That's the real problem.

Sarah Montague: Bjorn Lomborg is Director of Denmark's Environmental Assessment Institute. He says proposed solutions being put forward by governments up until now will not solve the problem.

Bjorn Lomborg: If everybody did Kyoto, the cost would probably be at least $150 billion a year, starting in 2010. We will postpone warming in 2100 by 6 years - that will do a little good but at a very high cost. The real issue, of course, still remains: is this the right approach? Is this the right place to spend an enormous amount of funding? And I'm simply pointing out: there we can do a lot better, elsewhere.

Sarah Montague: Well, we're joined now by the Environment Minister Elliot Morley, who's in Bangkok, attending a convention on endangered plant species - good morning to you.

Elliot Morley: Good morning.

Sarah Montague: Can you just give me your response to these latest carbon dioxide figures - they're rather scary.

Elliot Morley: They are a matter of concern. They are over two years, and that's a comparatively short time scale for drawing firm conclusions. But Professor King is absolutely right - what we do know is that this is a man-made problem, in relation to the involvement of human activities. And in that sense, we've really got to recognise that a great deal more must be done, in terms of combatting climate change. And the warnings that the Prime Minister has been giving, on this, and the call for international action that he's been making, is one that has got to be picked up by industrial nations.

Sarah Montague: Are you referring to agreements like Kyoto, which is likely to come into force in a few months? But without the United States complying, what good is it?

Elliot Morley: Oh, it's of major importance. And the fact is that Kyoto is the only show in town. It is the only international agreement where countries can come together, in terms of an action plan in reducing CO2. It is true that we do need to have the US on board, and I think at some stage it is inevitable that they're going to have to do this, But even in the interests -

Sarah Montague: But they haven't wanted to, so far, have they.

Elliot Morley: No, and I don't think the present administration will do so. I don't think that anything to do with Kyoto they will sign up to. But nevertheless, there is an awful lot of activity going on in the US, because of course not everybody in the United States shares the current administration's views on this. And there are many states, for example, who are taking very, very strong action, in relation to CO2 and climate change. And they want to be part of an international process, and I believe that we can facilitate that. And even the current administration are spending very large sums of money on R&D, for example, in relation to new technologies and technological solutions. But while we think that is part of the answer, we think that there's also got to be action taken along the Kyoto lines, as well. And the US must join that process, at some point.

Sarah Montague: There are so many uncertainties, here - nobody really knows what has caused this rise in CO2 emissions. You've got business arguing that the figures on CO2 emissions over the next three years are wrong, and they're warning that any cutbacks will make them uncompetitive. So there's an awful lot of pressure on the government, from business and industry, not to clamp down too much.

Elliot Morley: There is pressure and there is disagreements, and that is true, although I do reject Bjorn Lomborg's arguments. These figures he mentions have been plucked out of the air - they're not properly costed, and we've demonstrated, in relation to the reductions that we've achieved in greenhouse gases in the UK, for example, that you can still have economic growth without, you know, disastrous consequences, taking action to curb greenhouse gases.

So it can be done - so we don't go along with what Bjorn Lomborg is saying, although it's good to see him moving from a position where he was rejecting climate warming to embracing it, because the evidence is becoming overwhelming, and those few dissident voices are really increasingly looking like they belong to the Flat Earth Society. So we know what the problem is - it is to do with industrialisation, it is to do with fossil fuels, as Professor King has said. So that means that we do have to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that we're all pumping out into the atmosphere, and we can do that through energy conservation, we can do it by moving to renewable energy - there's a range of options, not just one particular one. There's a range of options that we must take. And we must do it, on a global basis, otherwise this will simply go on getting worse. And -

Sarah Montague: Well, indeed - how bad could it get? We're talking, aren't we, about a time scale not generations away but in our lifetimes, perhaps.

Elliot Morley: Well, the worrying thing, as you've quite rightly stated, is that there does appear to be accelerating, in relation to the impacts of CO2 and its concentration in the atmosphere. Now, we don't know whether this is going to be a long-term trend, but it is a matter of concern. And the point I was going to make, in relation to the cost to industry - there is no cost-free option here. If we don't take action, then we're going to see the kind of problems that we've experienced internationally, in terms of extremes of weather, rising temperature, warming seas, collapse of fish stocks, collapse of industrial infrastructure, power lines, railway lines in relation to raise in temperatures, desertification, pressure on water, with all the problems that go with that, including potential large-scale population shifts and the instability that will bring. And no country will be shielded from it.

Sarah Montague: On that sombre note, many thanks to you, Elliot Morley.