20130807_R5
Source: BBC Radio 5 Live: Shelagh Fogarty
URL: N/A
Date: 07/08/2013
Event: "Where they count polar bear populations, the polar bear populations are largely going up"
Credit: BBC Radio 5 Live
People:
- Shelagh Fogarty: Radio and television presenter
- Andrew Montford: Blogger (Bishop Hill) and author, The Hockey Stick Illusion
- John Sauven: Executive Director, Greenpeace UK
Shelagh Fogarty: Now then, pictures of an apparently starved polar bear, found dead in the Arctic, have raised more questions over climate change. The bear was discovered on one of the islands of Svalbard in northern Norway. Scientists say a drop in ice levels in the region has made it harder for bears to hunt for food, and they think this particular animal may have been forced to travel further than is normal. John Sauven is the Executive Director for Greenpeace and Andrew Montford is a writer and climate change sceptic. Good afternoon to both of you.
Andrew Montford: Hello.
John Sauven: Good afternoon.
Shelagh Fogarty: John, what do you believe happened to this bear?
John Sauven: Well, look, I don't know the bear personally, and I haven't studied it, but I mean, look, all we can go by is what Dr. Ian Stirling, who is a bear scientist, said, and that is that, well, everybody knows that Arctic sea ice is retreating and has done so at record levels, and that's well reported, it's measured by satellites and by scientists on the ground. I think this particular polar bear has also been tracked, and I think Dr. Ian Stirling's point is that the retreating ice around Svalbard, where this bear was, has retreated so quickly and so rapidly that this bear, and other bears like it, are finding it increasingly difficult to hunt for seals, and they did track this population of bears, and so they have monitored it quite closely, and shown that they're travelling huge distances compared to normal, and obviously some of them aren't making it, because they're just not being able to eat the seals, they need that blubber, and I think that, you know, starvation, loss of weight and also a decline in most bear populations is being recorded across the Arctic, and so I think this is just something that is a consequence of what is currently happening in the Arctic, which is of concern to everybody.
Shelagh Fogarty: Andrew, do you accept that, however this particular polar bear might have died, there is a link between a drop in ice levels and the numbers of bears declining?
Andrew Montford: No, not really. There are fossil records of polar bears, going back thousands of years, you know, as far back as 100,000 years. So we know that polar bears have survived warm periods in the past. There was a period called the Holocene Climatic Optimum, which was, sort of, 5 -10,000 years ago. Polar bears made it through that fine. So, to say that changes in sea ice must have caused the death of this polar bear is a little bit of a nonsense, really. [John Sauven is starting to interrupt.] The polar bear, as I understand it -
John Sauven: He is a polar bear - he is a polar bear specialist, and there aren't that many polar bears, there's about 20 - 25,000 bears, and if you look at the recent IUCN polar bear specialist group, they said that of the 19 populations of polar bears, they said 8 are declining, 3 are stable and one is increasing.
Andrew Montford: Okay, well, I've actually looked at, I've actually -
John Sauven: If you look at their previous study, it shows that, you know, that the rate of decline, in terms of the number of polar bear species, has increased. And I don't think, Andrew, you can deny what is happening in the Arctic, is quite dramatic, I mean, it's lost 75% of its volume in the -
Shelagh Fogarty: Can you just allow him to reply. Go on, Andrew.
John Sauven: - is that, is -
Shelagh Fogarty: Let's allow him to reply, John Sauven.
John Sauven: [talking on regardless]: - quite a radical change that's happening in the Arctic today -
Shelagh Fogarty: John Sauven, let him reply. Go on.
Andrew Montford: Okay, I have actually read that study on the polar bear numbers. The problem is that it's not based on counts of polar bears. It's based on computer models. Okay? So, where they have counted the polar bears, as I understand it, all but one sub-population of polar bears are increasing, and there's one in which there's a small - and as I remember it, statistically insignificant - decrease in numbers. All the rest of it is computer simulations, based on ice declines - therefore the populations must have gone down. Again, this is a hypothesis, it's not science.
John Sauven: Well, this is what scientists -
Andrew Montford: Now -
John Sauven: - you know, you can deny these scientific reports, Andrew, but you know, this is scientists who are producing these reports, and they have -
Andrew Montford: - a hypothesis is not the same thing, though, as a scientific -
John Sauven: It's not a hypothesis.
Andrew Montford: You know, you can hypothesise all you like, you can create computer models that are as sophisticated and wonderful as you like, but they are only hypotheses.
John Sauven: Well -
Andrew Montford: Okay? So they're not - it's not denying anything, it's merely pointing out that they have come up with nothing more than a hypothesis. Now, we -
Shelagh Fogarty: John Sauven? Well, hang on, let John Sauven respond to that. I'll come back to you, Andrew Montford.
John Sauven: Okay, look, Andrew can say, you know, the world is square -
Andrew Montford: I'm not saying that.
John Sauven: - and if all the scientists say the world is round I have to accept the world is round, even if Andrew thinks the world is square. I mean the thing is, you can pick up every single scientific report there is, and start trying to pull it apart, but these are reputable scientists who are saying these things, and it's also logical -
Andrew Montford: No, I'm not denying that they are reputable scientists, but they are only hypothesising.
John Sauven: - and it's also fairly logical and rational, even for an ordinary person who isn't a scientist, to understand that if polar bears need sea ice to hunt for seals, and that sea ice disappears, then those polar bears are going to be in trouble, and that's exactly -
Andrew Montford: So how did they make it through the Holocene Climatic Optimum, then?
John Sauven: - exactly - exactly what you are seeing is happening today.
Andrew Montford: But we're not seeing it. That is what I'm saying. They have hypothesised that this is happening, but we haven't seen it. Where they count polar bear populations, the polar bear populations are largely going up. We know that a few years ago, there were many many fewer polar bears -
John Sauven: Andrew, I think you need to -
Andrew Montford: - but the population - as you said yourself - is up to 25,000.
Shelagh Fogarty: Okay, hang on.
John Sauven: I think you need to go away and read that - I think you need to go away and read that report, because they quite clearly -
Andrew Montford: I have read the report - it's based on computer models.
John Sauven: - they quite clearly say, the report says one is increasing and 8 are declining, so -
Shelagh Fogarty: Okay, we're beginning to -
John Sauven: - so I don't think there's much point on going on arguing -
Shelagh Fogarty: It's okay, we're beginning to repeat ourselves, and I think it's clear which position both of you have taken, but thank you - John Sauven, Executive Director for Greenpeace, and Andrew Montford as well, thank you - writer and climate change sceptic.