20110531_R4
Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: N/A
Date: 31/05/2011
Event: Lord Stern on the need to review our "ambitions for emissions"
People:
- Sarah Montague: Presenter, BBC Radio 4 Today programme
- Nicholas Stern: Baron Stern of Brentford, British economist and academic
Sarah Montague: When you look at these figures, do you think that there's little chance, with any chance of cutting to a safe level - is it now impossible?
Nicholas Stern: It's not impossible, but the window for action is closing. If people did deliver on their obligations or their estimates of their cuts that they gave in Cancun, in December - last December - then it would take us back in ten years' time, roughly to where we are now. That would be 10% above where we we'd need to be for a 2 degree Centigrade path, which is one that people normally regard as on the borderline of dangerous. So we've got to do more -
Sarah Montague: So that would be all right -
Nicholas Stern: Well, two degrees itself would need quite a lot of adaptation. But what this does mean is that we're slipping behind in our intentions, we have to make sure we do deliver, as a world, on those commitments given in Cancun, and we have to think about going further, and what this does show is that it's really a wake-up call. It shows that we're slipping behind on the obligations that we've already made.
Sarah Montague: But it's worse than that, in a sense, in that it also shows the room for manoeuvre is very limited, because as this, as the International Energy Agency points out, 80% of the - sort of - the generating capacity, the energy that's going to be produced, is already fixed, because people are - there are power plants that will still be in place, and are being built, and that will - there's a limited room for man oeuvre.
Nicholas Stern: That's 80% of the capacity by, er, 2020 is already under construction or in existence. That's absolutely right -what it does show is that the room for manoeuvre is narrow and the window of opportunity is closing. But the IEA and many others would agree, and Fatih Birol, their chief economist, agreed over the weekend, that it's not closed, and if we act urgently, strongly now, what we can do is launch another industrial revolution full of all sorts of benefits, of energy security, clean energy, more biodiversity and so on. So there are enormous opportunities here. The risks are immense, and we're in danger of sleepwalking, but if we act strongly, then the opportunities are also immense.
Sarah Montague: It feels, though, that we've been getting that message for years, now, and perhaps we're, sort of, lulled into, not a false sense of security but, sort of, a feeling that, you know, we can still act. When you looked at this in 2006, you said: look, if we act soon, the cost will be effectively 1% of GDP. Does this still apply?
Nicholas Stern: I should think the investments we need to make now, were more like 1 or 2% of GDP, the reason I give a higher figure is that the science has become still more worrying, so I think our ambitions for emissions reductions should be higher than those indicated in the Stern Review. But the technology is changing very rapidly; lots of discoveries, capital costs are coming down. There's a huge opportunity here for a new energy and industrial revolution, and that's being understood in China and Korea, for example. You've got Brazil and Indonesia making some progress on stopping deforestation. We shouldn't look just at the attitudes in the rich countries, we should look more broadly. And many of the emerging markets are seeing the challenge, and seeing the opportunities. It must have now more rich country leadership.