Source: BBC TV News
URL: N/A
Date: 25/03/2013
Event: Beddington: "In a sense, we've moved from the idea of global warming to the idea of climate change..."
Attribution: BBC TV News
People:
Susanna Reid: Now, the outgoing Government Chief Scientist says there's already enough carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere to increase the frequency of floods and droughts over the next 25 years.
Bill Turnbull: Speaking in his final week as the government's advisor, Professor John Beddington's said world leaders need to take urgent action to tackle climate change, and to delay addressing the issue will only make it more expensive to deal with. Professor Beddington joins us now. Sir John, thanks very much for joining us this morning.
Sir John Beddington: Morning.
Bill Turnbull: Just to be clear about what you're saying. Even if we stop pumping more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere today, there would still be problems for - what, the next quarter century?
Sir John Beddington: Yes, that's it. The thing is that the climate system does have built-in delays, so that pretty much the result of global emissions, which have reached a peak at the moment - it means that for about 20, 25 years, we're going to see significant climate change. And even if we stopped increasing those emissions now, that would happen. But what is quite clear is the international community has not reached agreement on reducing emissions yet. Talks broke down in a succession of meetings, though there has been progress. But the longer it takes, the longer it's actually going to be that the climate change that is already happening is going to continue.
Bill Turnbull: Yes, so the fact that we're not making any progress on CO2 mean that these disruptions will get worse?
Sir John Beddington: Yes, I think the thing that has to be recognised - and I think there's been increasing scientific evidence shows this -
is that we're going to expect weather to be much more variable. In a sense, we've moved from the idea of global warming to the idea of climate change, and that's rather important. Yes indeed, temperatures are increasing, but the thing that is going to happen is we're going to see much more variability in our weather. I think you only have to look at the last few years to see how that is actually starting to manifest itself, even in the UK.
Bill Turnbull: Yet the thing about this debate, though, is that the climate change sceptics have also been making some - what some people would consider to be fairly strong arguments. Professor Richard Lindzen of Atmospheric Science at M.I.T. says claims that climate change is accelerating are bizarre, the quality of the data is poor and because the changes are so small, it's easy to nudge such data a few tenths of a degree in any direction. So you're fighting a battle on two fronts - one against CO2 but also against the sceptics, aren't you?
Sir John Beddington: Yes, I think the - obviously there are uncertainties in the analysis of climate and the climate change. But those uncertainties are completely outweighed by an enormous body of evidence that shows it's happening, and that it's happening in the sort of ways that the climate models would expect. For example, the Arctic is heating up vastly faster than other parts of the world - this is exactly what the climate scientists are predicting. And indeed there are sceptics, but for example, there was a significant study in California from - initiated by a group that actually were somewhat sceptical - and they come up after a couple of years' study with essentially exactly the same results as the rest of the community's got.
Bill Turnbull: Yeah, I mean we could sort of bat each - can you hear me?
Sir John Beddington: Yes, I can, but I need to - [He is adjusting his earpiece.]
Bill Turnbull: Okay, we could bat each other round the head with competing scientific papers all morning, really, but I suppose - as you get your earpiece fixed - the big question, really, is this: if we can't get governments internationally to agree now, what can we do to bang their heads together, to get them to agree in future? Because every time there's a big conference, they come away with nothing.
Sir John Beddington: Well, I think the issues are really - first of all, to appreciate it. And we've got massive problems in the world. In 12 years' time there'll be another billion people on the planet. We've got big issues of food security, of water security, of energy security. And many, many people will start to be living in cities. These are massive problems. Climate change is just going to make that worse. Now, how one persuades the international community to deal with these problems, that's obviously a political issue, and one that I would just advise that it really is important to deal with it now.
Bill Turnbull: Professor Sir John Beddington, thanks very much for joining us, this morning.
Sir John Beddington: Thanks for your time.