20140923_MM
Source: BBC Radio Bristol: Geoff Twentyman
URL: N/A
Date: 23/09/2014
Event: Michael Mann: "more than 97%" of climate scientists say "global warming is real"
Credit: BBC Radio Bristol
People:
- Professor Michael Mann: Climatologist, director of the Earth System Science Center, Pennsylvania State University
- Geoff Twentyman: Presenter, BBC Radio Bristol
Geoff Twentyman: The time now is approaching 20 minutes to 6 o'clock, and one of the world's leading experts on climate change and global warming is holding a lecture at Bristol University, this evening. Michael E. Mann will discuss the science, politics and ethical dimensions of global warming. It's highly topical, of course, as the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is welcoming heads of state and governments at a special one-day summit in New York - that's going on today, about climate change. Well, earlier I spoke with Michael, and he gave me his assessment of the threat of global warming and climate change.
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Michael Mann: Well, if you look at the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and a number of other recent scientific assessments, it's pretty clear that if we, you know, continue to warm the globe, above about 2 degrees Celsius, we will start to see some of the most serious - and potentially dangerous - impacts of climate change. The good news is that there is still time to do something about it, but there isn't a whole lot of time - if we want to avoid crossing that potentially dangerous limit, we really need to begin decreasing our carbon emissions now.
Geoff Twentyman: Yeah, notwithstanding this conversation, do you think people generally are aware of the threat of global warming, right now?
Michael Mann: Well, I think they are. Now, part of, you know, the attacks that I've been at the centre of are part of a larger effort to, sort of, undermine the public confidence in the science. And so I think, to some extent, the public is not as aware as the scientific community is. There's an overwhelming consensus within the scientific community - more than 97% of the scientists who study climate change will tell you that global warming is real, it's caused by us and it represents a threat if we don't do something about it. The percent of the public that has that same understanding is somewhat lower, and in part it's because there has been a successful campaign to delegitimise, to attack the science, to create doubt and confusion.
That having been said - and I think that's very true here in the UK, where you've just suffered, you know, this very unusual winter, the rainiest winter on record, the flooding that occurred over a large part of the UK this last winter was unprecedented, and even scientists from the UK Met Office are now on record saying that "Look climate change almost certainly played a role in that." And so people are feeling the effects of climate change already, and I think that is leading to a greater level of acceptance, that it's real and it's something we need to contend with.
Geoff Twentyman: Yeah, so if it is that greater level of acceptance, is there a greater level of awareness of how we can help ease, deal with this problem?
Michael Mann: Well, that's a great question, I mean, because ultimately that's the important thing, here. The important thing for the public to understand is: we can do something about this. There's no reason for hopelessness, for giving up. It's just a matter of doing the things we know we should be doing, like cutting our own personal carbon footprints, reducing our carbon footprints by, you know, reducing our energy use, um, you know, recycling, doing all those things that make us healthier, that save us money. So there's a lot we can do in our personal lives to lower our carbon footprint and make us better off, anyways.
Ultimately, though, what we need is for our policy makers to agree to put a price on the emission of carbon, to make sure that the damage that carbon emissions are doing to the planet is made part of the economic decision-making process. And there's a very worthy debate to be had, with conservatives and progressives at the table, as to how to go about doing that. But the bottom line is: that's what we need to do.
Geoff Twentyman: Okay, I mean, Ban Ki-moon asking countries to provide details of how they're going to deal with emissions of greenhouse gases, et cetera, ahead of this long-term agreement in 2015 - I mean, how optimistic are you about the future and the ability to deal with this?
Michael Mann: I am optimistic, and I'm glad you mentioned this - right now, in New York City there's this summit, this UN summit taking place, which is sort of a preparation for next year's summit in Paris, where, you know, world leaders are hoping we will make some real progress, we will get nations at the table. One of the things that really gives me optimism, here, is the fact that China - which was, you know, which is now our largest carbon emitter on the planet, making an increasingly large contribution to our global carbon emissions, and they were somewhat intransigent in the past about being willing to do something about their growing carbon emissions - China has now said that "Look, we're ready to come to the table, we are passing cap-and-trade system to price carbon, over the next year and a half".
By some measures, China is now ahead of the US, in terms of the commitment that they're willing to make, to do something about this problem. That gives me - that gives me optimism, the fact that major players like China and other developing nations are coming to the table puts more pressure on the industrial world, and the US, to come to the table at these agreements.
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Geoff Twentyman: A fascinating subject - that is this evening, at the Victoria Rooms, part of Bristol University, of course. Michael E. Mann, discussing science, politics and ethical dimensions of global warming, chatting with me, earlier this afternoon.