20130802_R4
Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: N/A
Date: 02/08/2013
Event: Sir David King: "a good moment to give an extra push on the development of solar energy"
Credit: BBC Radio 4
People:
- Marshall Burke: Graduate student, UC Berkeley
- Jenny Chase: Head of Solar Insight, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
- Corrie Corfield: BBC newsreader
- John Humphrys: Presenter, BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
- Sir David King: Former Chief Scientific Adviser to H.M. Government, UK
John Humphrys: When we were threatened with Hitler, the Americans produced the atom bomb. When we were threatened in the Cold War, they sent a man to the Moon. Now we are threatened by global warming, and we need a similar scientific effort to save the planet. That is what Sir David King, former Chief Scientist, has written in the Financial Times today. And, having posed the problem, he's offered the solution - solar energy. He's on the line. So is Jenny Chase of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which deals with the energy sector. Sir David, we've already got lots of solar energy, haven't we?
Sir David King: We have got plenty of solar energy, erm, altogether, by the end of 2012, 100 gigawatts of installed solar photovoltaic production across the world. But that in itself amounts to less than 1% - it's about 0.5% of worldwide demand. And all we're saying today is that since we have just passed the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere of 400 parts per million, and most climate scientists believe that passing 450 is likely to lead to potential calamities from climate change, so this is a good moment to give an extra push on the development of solar energy. Solar cell prices fall 20% for every doubling of industry capacity, that's what we've seen, and the price has fallen - the installation price has fallen, between 2007 and 2012, by 75%. So what we see is that the economic opportunity is now there, and the more we invest in solar energy, the cheaper it becomes to use it.
John Humphrys: And are you suggesting that it's industry, commerce or individuals who should be targeted?
Sir David King: All three of the above, and politicians. I would say that what we need is a much greater awareness of the scientific and technical ability to improve the situation year on year, which is what we have been achieving, but it needs a very special push. If I just point to one part of the world which is making a lot of progress, that's California. California currently has 2.23 total gigawatts of solar farms under construction.
John Humphrys: And it has a lot of sun.
Sir David King: It's got a lot of sun, and of course what we're pushing for is that those parts of the world which have a lot of sun and where land is not being used or capable of being used for food production, then we can optimise solar energy production.
John Humphrys: Okay, so you're not arguing for a big push for every home to have a - have solar panels on its roof, or every factory to run off solar power. What you're talking about is enormous projects, hence the atom bomb and sending a man to the Moon analogy... examples. You're talking about massive projects that the world would support.
Sir David King: I am, but I don't want to, of course, eliminate micro-generation, as you've just mentioned.
John Humphrys: Sure, but that's an addition, that's not the purpose of what you're - that's not the brunt of your message.
Sir David King: That's right.
John Humphrys: Well, let me ask Jenny Chase what she thinks of that.
Jenny Chase: So, I would echo Sir David's excitement about the falling costs of solar. Just an anecdote - solar is now so cheap that Spain is considering a law to charge people for having solar on their roofs to make their own energy supply.
John Humphrys: Really?
Jenny Chase: They are, they're considering it. They haven't passed it yet, but, um, this would be the first time people with solar actually had to pay more in taxes.
John Humphrys: Well, you say it's so cheap. I put in a solar thing myself, and it's quite expensive to install, I mean, not massively but pretty expensive - it will take some years before getting your money back. Most people wouldn't be able to afford - a lot of people, anyway, wouldn't be able to afford it.
Jenny Chase: A lot of people can't, and that's one problem with high penetration of solar into the grid. Solar tends to be for rich people - the way it's going at the moment, it does tend to be solar for rich people. And ultimately, you'll have the rest of the consumer base for electricity supporting that, by paying the fixed costs of running the grid.
John Humphrys: Mmm. Which isn't the way it ought to be.
Jenny Chase: Not really.
John Humphrys: So, what - because what Sir David's talking about is principally this idea that we kind of get together and build enormous installations in the world's deserts, effectively - I'm paraphrasing a bit, but that's the idea. Do you think that makes sense, from a - are there people who would invest in those sorts of projects?
Jenny Chase: I think you would probably pay a higher cost of capital, you pay a higher interest rate on the debt that you borrowed to build those projects, than you would for the same plant in Germany. However, there are some fundamental problems with putting a lot of solar in northern Europe, which is that most of our electricity demand is in the winter, and some of it is at night.
John Humphrys: Ah... Yeah, well -
Jenny Chase: I suspect -
John Humphrys: Yeah, well that - just take up those two points with you, Sir David - that's the point, isn't it. I mean, the sun doesn't shine at night, and in the dark winter evenings when we want most of our electricity.
Sir David King: And what we're pushing for, if you read the article in the Financial Times, this morning -
John Humphrys: Which I've done, yeah.
Sir David King: - yes, is for more investment into energy storage. This is of course a critical point. While there is a heavy demand for electricity during the day, many of us would like to have lights on at night, and so obviously we need much more research into energy storage, and I think that's the point we want to emphasise here, that it is a question of research. We could take a static look at the world and say "How much does it cost today to install this, and what's the return on my money?" But what is it going to be like in 20 years' time? And the answer to that depends critically on much more scientific research being invested in, so that we can bring this all forward. I'm really - we're very worried that the way we're going at the moment, we're capable of developing these things but there isn't the push required to -
John Humphrys: Push by whom?
Sir David King: The push by the politicians, by the public - we need to get public support for this - investors, who have seen - investors in solar energy - have seen the cost of installation fall dramatically, as I've said, and that fall will continue as the amount installed goes up. So I think it is a question of public support for the action, financial support, because this is an investment in our future, and political action. That's a combination that has come together in California - I could also say it's come together in China.
John Humphrys: Right. Well, Sir David King and Jenny Chase, thank you both very much indeed.
* * *
Corrie Corfield: A study says increases in violence around the world are strongly linked to changes in the climate. The research, published in the journal Science, found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall had an effect, from a surge in violent crimes in the United States and India, to conflicts such as civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa. Marshall Burke, from the University of California, is one of the researchers. He says all the evidence shows many people feel a bit more aggressive on hot days.
Marshall Burke: What our results shows this actually magnifies, so if you look across society as a whole, if, you know, you look across the entire US, on hot days there are enough grumpy people who get really angry and start committing violent crimes, so we see on hot days things like assaults and rapes and murders go up pretty dramatically.