Source: BBC Radio 4: Farming Today
URL: N/A
Date: 01/12/2012
Event: "Unfortunately, we're not able to make robust forecasts or predictions for the next few years"
People:
Charlotte Smith: Well, for some climate scientists, the weather over the past few weeks hasn't come as any great surprise. Studies from research institutes across Europe have predicted more extreme weather over the coming decades. Anna Hill talked to Dr. Clare Goodess from the Climate [sic] Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who's been working on weather patterns and has been part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Clare Goodess: If we consider winter rainfall in the UK over the last 40 or 50 years, there is a clear pattern that an increasing amount of that rainfall is happening as extreme rainfall events, so the kind of events that are likely to lead to flooding.
Anna Hill: So give me the pattern, then. In 30 years' time, what are you thinking that we might see?
Clare Goodess: Our models show that we should be seeing increased winter rainfall in the UK, and a trend towards a decrease in summer rainfall. When I'm talking about these projections for the future, I'm talking about average conditions over a 30-year period, say at the middle of the century. And that doesn't actually tell you what's going to happen year to year. And I guess what farmers really would like to know is how climate or weather is going to be over the next five years. Unfortunately, we're not able to make robust forecasts or predictions for the next few years. So farmers are still left with a lot of uncertainty, I think, when it comes to planning.
And, of course, the other part of the picture are the temperature changes. And those are actually stronger, the patterns are more robust. And our projections for the future indicate a sort of strong continuation of those patterns. Now for some crops those changes could be beneficial and bringing in an extension of the growing season, for example, giving the possibility of growing different types of crops in the UK. But I think what's difficult is knowing the balance between those temperature changes and whether or not there might be constraints, for example, in summer rainfall, which might limit the choice.
One thing that came out in the Intergovernmental report that's indicating a decrease in what we call a "return period" between heavy rainfall events. So if you have repeated flooding, then the impacts of those types of events are likely to accumulate.
Charlotte Smith: Dr. Clare Goodess.