20150202_R4
Source: BBC Radio 4 News
URL: N/A
Date: 02/02/2015
Event: Roger Harrabin: 2014 temperatures "reveal something of an enigma"
Credit: BBC Radio 4 News
People:
- Roger Harrabin: BBC's Environment Analyst
- Diana Speed: BBC newsreader
Diana Speed: Last year has been ranked as the hottest since records began in 1850. The World Meteorological Organisation says 14 of the 15 warmest years have been this century. But a closer look at the figures suggest temperatures are increasing only marginally, leading some scientists to reconsider the role of oceans in climate change. Our Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin has been looking at the figures.
Roger Harrabin: This year's record temperatures underscore the confidence among scientists that emissions of CO2 from humankind are warming the planet. But they also reveal something of an enigma, because although 2014 was technically the warmest on record, if you allow for a margin of error it was only really joint first with 2010 and 2005. And that means that although temperatures have been at unprecedented levels since 1998, there's been barely any extra annual increase since then.
This is interpreted in two ways. Some people previously sceptical of climate science are now accepting that yes the climate is warming, yes humans are probably to blame, and yes there may be future warming. But they say recent trends suggest it will be less dangerous than mainstream scientists predict. People with this view call themselves "lukewarmers".
The majority view is more pessimistic. Climate scientists say the ocean is likely to be soaking up the extra heat they'd forecast - it's probably just a matter of time, they say, before that heat comes out of the sea to send land temperatures soaring again. Politicians who are supposed to forge a new climate deal by the end of the year can't be certain what will happen with future temperatures. They need to decide how much risk they want to take.