20150129_IS

Source: BBC Radio 4

URL: N/A

Date: 29/01/2015

Event: Nick Pidgeon cites Oxford study claiming UK floods have become "25% more likely"

Credit: BBC Radio 4, Inside Science

People:

• Professor Nick Pidgeon: Professor of Environmental Psychology, Cardiff University
• Dr. Adam Rutherford: Geneticist, author and broadcaster

Adam Rutherford: Hello! Some weeks, it's all about the physics, today humans abound - where we come from, where we're going. We delve into the Anthropocene, the geological epoch that we're in right now, the one uniquely defined by our own actions. We take a look at our pillaging of the seas - one in five fish we eat is caught illegally - and what we're doing to police this... But first, this time last year the headlines were dominated by one thing...

[Audio montage of newsreaders' reports, from the winter of 2013-2014.]

Male newsreader 1: The Environment Agency has warned that there may be more significant flooding across parts of southern England, with heavy rain and high winds forecast for tonight and tomorrow...

Male newsreader 2: Rescue workers use a fire engine to drive along a flooded road in Weybridge in Surrey. They're checking houses close to the river, and asking any remaining residents to leave...

Female newsreader 1: In Kent, Sundridge High Street has now become a tributary of the River Darent...

Male newsreader 3: The only way in and the only way out is said to be by boat or tractor. The village of Binsey in Oxfordshire...

Adam Rutherford: Yes, we all remember the floods across much of central and southern England, this time last year, and the devastating effect they had on people's lives and livelihoods. Much of the coverage asked the question that the floods and other extreme weather events might be a consequence of climate change. Today a group of researchers at Cardiff University published a report on how people's perception of climate change has evolved, in the wake of the floods. I spoke to one of the authors, Professor Nick Pidgeon, and I asked him what the motivation for the survey was.

Nick Pidgeon: We've known for many years that climate change, for many people, is, to use a technical term "psychologically distant" - that is to say, if you ask people who it will affect, it's other people, it's other places and definitely far in the future, so climate change is something that's very difficult to make local, for people. And the idea was: although the events of last winter were tragic for the people involved, effectively you have a natural experiment going on there, that in the flooded areas there's much more local experience of something that might be connected to climate change in the future.

Adam Rutherford: What has been the change in perception about climate change that followed the terrible floods of last year?

Nick Pidgeon: At the first level, we took a thousand survey respondents nationally, across Great Britain - that's England, Scotland and Wales - and then another 995 in the areas that - some of the areas that had been flooded, across England and Wales. What we found in the national sample, looking at what people reported there, that more people are prepared to accept the reality of climate change - about 9 in 10, compared to about 7 or 8 in 10 over the past 5 years. And that is a significant change, in relation to the tracking we've been doing over the last 5 years.

The other interesting result in the national sample was that there was a rise in people stating that they believed that climate change had a human component, that's the anthropogenic component, to it - that went up to about 85% across two categories of measurement. And again, that was up about 10% on figures in the recent past, so we were surprised, seeing that.

Adam Rutherford: How different is the change in perception from people who were flooded, compared to people who weren't but were aware of the floods?

Nick Pidgeon: Well, I'll give you an example. We asked everybody, in both samples, "Have you become more or less concerned about climate change, over the past 12 months?" In the national sample, 26% said "Yes" to that question. In these most directly affected areas, it was about 40% who said "Yes", on that question. And, on a range of other questions, we've got much higher responses in the flood-affected areas.

Adam Rutherford: So, the broad conclusions are that, as a result of the floods that happened in the southwest and elsewhere, this time last year, that the perception that climate change is real and is caused by humans has gone significantly up.

Nick Pidgeon: Yeah, we can't say for definite that it's absolutely caused entirely by the floods - there may be other things involved - but it has gone up. And that's reinforced by other responses on the survey. So, we asked people directly about the flooding and whether they've become more concerned or less concerned about climate change, over the last 12 months. More people had become more concerned, and the two main reasons they gave for becoming more concerned were flooding and also extreme weather, so again there was more evidence elsewhere on the survey. Also, 72% of the national sample agreed with the statement that floods showed us what we can expect from climate change in the future, which again surprised us.

Adam Rutherford: And I suppose it's worth stressing that it's not possible for us, currently - or it may never be possible - to actually attribute the floods that we witnessed last year specifically to climate change, but I suppose your survey says that doesn't matter to people's perception.

Nick Pidgeon: Yes, that's absolutely right, that people are making the link between the two. I would add, though, that climate scientists are working very hard on the first part of that problem - what's called the attribution issue - and they have actually, in research in Oxford University and elsewhere, found that the events of last winter, the floods and storms, were 25% more likely, under a model of the world that's warming.

Adam Rutherford: And how does this translate into action on climate change?

Nick Pidgeon: That's a very good question, that people, for many years actually, have felt that it's government's role to take a lead on climate change, but I think these events helped to strengthen those beliefs. So, for instance, we found three quarters of the sample wanted the UK government to sign up to international agreements to limit carbon emissions, and of course, in the context of the Paris negotiations that are upcoming later on in the year, that's an important signal to the UK government.

I should also say, of course, under a warming climate, we have to think more about climate adaptation, and how increasing risks from climate change will be dealt with and faced, both in terms of building more flood defences and protecting against greater drought and heatwaves in the summer. So our results say that we have to think very carefully, both as scientists - social scientists and climate scientists - about building a careful narrative about these increasing risks and how we communicate that to the public and the people who need to know, to build an adaptation infrastructure, and other things, in the UK.

Adam Rutherford: And I suppose the obvious thing to do is to follow this up in a year's time, hoping - in the hope that we haven't seen another similar set of events - and see if the trend continues or falls.

Nick Pidgeon: Yes, of course. And I think the longer-term impact of this is that - remember we've had, going back to about the year 2000, when we had major flooding in York, then we had flooding again in 2007, there have been several flooding events over the last 10 - 15 years, and it's an overall change in what we call the framing of climate change that's been happening in the UK, I think, and these are very subtle and long-term changes that happen over time. And I should add that the research has relevance to other research that's happening elsewhere, internationally, so in America, similar research is done but with respect to heatwaves and droughts, which they've certainly have had heatwaves and severe weather events there. So similar findings are being found elsewhere.

Adam Rutherford: Nick Pidgeon, from Cardiff University. As Nick's survey has shown, more people than ever now accept that the climate change we're currently experiencing is the result of human action. Our species has had a profound effect on the planet...

[To be continued.]