20130108_NT

Source: BBC TV: News at Ten

URL: N/A

Date: 08/01/2013

Event: Met Office forecast downgraded to "under half a degree Celsius" by 2015

Attribution: BBC TV

People:

• Huw Edwards: Presenter, BBC TV News at Ten
• David Shukman: BBC News Science Editor

Huw Edwards: The Met Office says it's standing by its long-term forecast of global warming for the rest of the century. It comes after a new computer system estimated the temperatures will rise by slightly less, over the next five years, than previously forecast. Our science editor David Shukman is here. What can you tell us, David?

David Shukman: Well, the Met Office tries to forecast everything from the weather tomorrow to the climate in a century's time, and what might happen five to ten years' time. And it's one of those forecasts that hit the news today, and here's why - the Met Office had forecast the world would warm by a little over half a degree Celsius by 2015, when compared to the long-term average.

[Screenshot: SHUKMAN_20130108-01.jpg]

Now they've had to revise that, as you say - downgrade it to under half a degree Celsius.

[Screenshot: SHUKMAN_20130108-02.jpg]

It doesn't sound a great deal, but it's caused quite a storm. Now the key thing here is if their forecast is right and there isn't much warming by 2015, we might have had a 20-year period without much warming. And a lot of people will say "What's the fuss about global warming all about?" The Met Office and climate scientists are saying: actually, global warming is a long-term threat. Natural factors may get in the way and influence things, with the oceans and the solar output. But bear in mind it's a long-term threat and one that's not going to go away.

Huw Edwards: Okay. David, thanks very much, once again. David Shukman there.