20130531_R4
Source: BBC Radio 4: Today Programme
URL: N/A
Date: 31/05/2013
Event: Cornelia Meyer: "A lot of people, including myself, never believed in Peak Oil"
Attribution: BBC Radio 4
People:
- Simon Jack: Business journalist for the BBC
- Cornelia Meyer: Chief Executive, Meyer Resources
Simon Jack: ... really bring it down to earth and talk about shale oil and gas, and whether it's a threat to the cartel OPEC - it's holding its bi-annual meeting in Vienna, it starts this morning. Cornelia Meyer is Chief Executive of Meyer Resources - she's in Vienna, and given that one of the world's biggest consumers of energy will soon be self-sufficient in 15 years, thanks to shale oil and gas, just asked her whether this has weakened the cartel.
Cornelia Meyer: It actually has not weakened OPEC. What it has done is it has taken trade flows away from the US. The US has become to be nearly self-sufficient, so some of the exporters to the United States - such as Angola or such as Nigeria - are now shipping the oil to Europe or to Asia. So instead of it going west, it now goes east.
Simon Jack: What is the feeling about the direction of prices?
Cornelia Meyer: The feeling of prices is in the short term they may go down a little bit more, but that is when people like Saudi Arabia will just start to produce less and not fulfil their quotas, because they're the ultimate swing producer. But in the medium term and longer term we can see that the primary energy demand in the world, over the next 30 years, is going to go up by 50%. So we literally need every barrel of oil, every solar panel, every BTU of gas.
Simon Jack: And the fast-growing economies of the east, places like China, India, etc. - are they worried about a hard landing in China? What's the outlook there?
Cornelia Meyer: I think they may be a little bit worried about a hard landing in China, but when you look at where the future demand is going to come from, it's certainly going to come from the Chinas and the Indias. But it's even more importantly coming from what we call the "Next Eleven" - the Nigerias, the Pakistans, the Turkeys, the people with substantive populations which will still need to lift out of poverty - you know, hundreds and hundreds of millions. And if we look at what has grown fastest - or which region has grown fastest, over the last few years - it's actually been Africa.
Simon Jack: And is the concept of "Peak Oil" - the bit where we've got to the height of production - is that still a concept that's even discussed at meetings like OPEC?
Cornelia Meyer: Peak Oil is never discussed at OPEC. A lot of people, including myself, never believed in Peak Oil. Look, Simon, we've been running out of oil within the next 40 years for 150 years. And there's always that next reservoir, that next technology. And, you know, mankind is very ingenious and will find new ways of getting at it.
Simon Jack: Okay. On that positive - it depends on your point of view, if you're an environmentalist maybe not positive, but if you're hungry for oil, that's good. Cornelia, thank you very much indeed.