The critical technologies of materials surface engineering are the priority technologies with the best development outlooks and/or of key significance for industry within the analyzed time horizon of 20 years. All the critical technologies were classified according to two research fields: M (Manufacturing) and P (Product). Seven thematic fields were distinguished between each of the research fields, M1–M7 and P1–P7, respectively, each containing 10 groups of technologies, giving the pool of 140 groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies (Table 3). The pool was generated based on the results of a state-of-the-art analysis including its assessment according to the review of references, technological review, and a strategic analysis with integrated methods (STEEP, SWOT). It needs to be explained that there are cases where a given group of technologies occurs more than once in the pool of critical technologies, which is not an omission or an error but a deliberate action. It is possible that a given group of technologies is significant for several thematic areas at the same time, while this significance against other technologies of different areas may be either similar, the same, or quite different.

In order to determine the strategic position of the relevant groups of critical technologies and to formulate action strategies recommended for use for such technologies, a newly developed methodology of the computer-integrated prediction of materials surface engineering development was employed with its correctness verified positively earlier by using the results of classical material science research as a reference point (Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010b; Hasan and Harris 2009).
The results of the electronic survey of experts, the specialists representing particular thematic fields, are carried out according to the idea of technology e-foresight using the e-Delphix method and the accompanying information technology, enabling to conduct research in virtual reality, represented the original reference data, expressed quantitatively using the universal scale of relative states consisting of ten degrees (1, minimum; 10, maximum) used for preparing aggregate contextual matrices concerning all the analyzed groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies. The values of individual technologies were evaluated in particular according to their potential and attractiveness, and the results of such evaluations were entered into the summary dendrological matrix of technology value (Hasan and Harris 2009). The results of the positive and negative evaluation of the influence of external factors were entered into the summary metrological matrix of environment influence by Hasan and Harris (2009). A summary matrix of strategies for technologies was next generated using a dedicated computer program. As it is necessary to ensure that a figure of the matrix of strategies for technologies is adequately clear, for the purpose of matrix presentation it was divided into quarters with their layout and numbering shown in Fig. 17. The individual quarters of the matrix together with the provided strategic position of individual critical technologies of materials surface engineering are illustrated in Figs. 18, 19, 20, and 21. The strategic development prospects of relevant technologies expressed quantitatively with the universal scale of relative states were marked with circles entered into the relevant quarters of the matrix, and this allows to make a quantitative comparative analysis of the individual groups of critical technologies subjected to heuristic studies.
Considering a limited size of this publication, the data provided in the matrix of strategies for critical technologies of materials surface engineering divided into quarters (Figs. 18, 19, 20, and 21) is interpreted with an abbreviated description pertaining to the most promising of the analyzed critical technologies.

Laser alloying/cladding CSM1 (7.0, 8.4) and pulsed laser deposition ISMI (4.6, 8.4) have the best development prospects from among the critical technologies belonging to the area of the thematic field M1: Laser technologies in surface engineering, and they were evaluated highly (8 points). The technology group CM1 was placed in the dwarf mountain pine in spring field signifying its high potential and limited attractiveness; hence, the actions recommended for the group include the following: to render the technology more attractive and more modern, to automate it, to computerize it, and to promote it using strong market conditions. Pulsed laser deposition IM1 was placed in the cypress in spring field, meaning it is highly attractive with a limited potential that needs to be strengthened through further research efforts, improvement, and additional investments in strong market conditions.
The results of heuristic studies point out that reactive magnetron sputtering (RMS) BSM2 (8.6, 9.0) and cathodic arc deposition (CAD) ASM2 (8.5, 8.7) have the best prospects of strategic development for physical vapor deposition (PVD) technologies, referred to as very high (9 points), and these should be developed, enhanced, and implemented in industrial practice for achieving a spectacular success. An attractive group of technologies with limited potential JSM2 (4.6, 8.4), i.e., pulsed laser deposition (PLD), should be investigated, improved, and invested more using the robust economic market circumstances. In relation to an attractive, stable technology set in a foreseeable environment, consisting of electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) FsM2 (8.2, 4.1), a future success is foreseen while recommending at the same time that new.
In the group of technologies consisting of chemical vapor deposition (CVD), the best strategic positions, evaluated each time to have 9 points in the scale of 10 points, have the following methods: metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) GSM3 (8.6, 8.5), laser chemical vapor deposition (LCVD) ESM3 (8.7, 8.3), and plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition/plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PACVD/PECVD) DsM3 (8.5, 8.2) found in the best 16 matrices of strategies for technologies for which the oak in spring strategy is recommended; thus, their future success is certain. A prototype technology of atomic layer deposition (ALD) JSM3 (4.4, 8.8) is also very promising (8 points), in relation to which it is recommended to use the cypress in spring strategy consisting of further scientific and research works aimed at its improvement and enhancement. It is also recommended to make additional investment in this attractive technology connected with exploiting numerous opportunities arising from the micro- and macroenvironment. An analysis of the results of heuristic studies visualized using contextual matrices indicates that among thermochemical technologies, the best strategic position has hybrid technologies JSM4 (9.0, 9.1) combining at least two surface treatment methods, i.e., nitriding and physical vapor deposition (PVD) or carburizing with chemical vapor deposition (CVD). The technologies currently experiencing a growing phase were also evaluated very high (9 points): plasma and low-pressure carburizing FSM4 (8.7, 8.9) and low-pressure nitriding BSM4 (8.3, 8.6). The experts also evaluated plasma nitriding ASM4 (8.6, 8.6) being in its early–mature phase, with 9 points. All the technologies JM4, BM4, FM4, and AM4 were found in the most advantageous group of 16 matrices, and the oak in spring strategy is recommended for them consisting in developing, strengthening, and implementing an attractive technology with a large potential in the industrial practice, and their future success is guaranteed.
It was pointed out by analyzing the results of heuristic studies conducted through an electronic survey of experts that the following polymer technologies of surface layers have the best strategic position evaluated with 9 points in the ten-degree scale of universal states: deposition of coatings with nanofillers GSM5 (8.3, 8.6) and graded coatings FSM5 (8.6, 8.1) with respect to which it is recommended to apply the oak in spring strategy where efforts are made to achieve a success by developing and strengthening the technologies that are boding very well set in a friendly environment bringing numerous opportunities. Electrophoretic deposition DSM5 (6.6, 8.7) and electrostatic fluidized-bed deposition ESM5 (6.6, 8.3) also rank high in the ranking (8 points), and they are placed in the field of dwarf mountain pine in spring, and a strategy recommended for them assumes that such mature technologies must be rendered more attractive, more modern, computerized and automated, and also intensively promoted in a supportive environment.
A heuristic analysis using reference data acquired via electronic surveys of experts with the e-Delphix method was carried out also with reference to the critical technologies of materials surface engineering classified as technologies of nanostructural surface layers among which a strategic position of physical vapor deposition of nanometric surface layers using ion beam-assisted deposition (IBAD) ESM6 (9.4, 9.1) and with electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) DSM6 (9.2, 8.6) was evaluated extraordinarily high (10 points). The oak in spring strategy should be employed with regard to those exceptionally promising technologies that were granted the maximum possible rate as it encourages their development, strengthening, and implementation on a wide industrial scale, and their future success is certain. The surface treatment of nanomaterials JSM6 (4.4, 9.0) (Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz and Lukowiec 2013) and also atomic layer deposition (ALD) FSM6 (4.9, 8.8) were evaluated very high (9 points). A strategic position of the deposition of coatings with nanomaterials on surface layers ISM6 (4.7, 8.4) and of electron beam lithography (EBL) BSM6 (4.3, 8.0) was evaluated very high (8 points). The groups of technologies JM6, FM6, and IM6 being in their prototype phase of development as well as the early–mature group BM6 require that the cypress in spring strategy is applied, showing that further scientific and research efforts need to be pursued to improve and strengthen the potential of such promising young technologies; numerous opportunities should also be exploited emerging in the closer and farther environment.
The results of heuristic studies indicate that thermal sprayed coating deposition BSM7 (9.1, 8.7) have the best prospects of strategic development for the technologies classified as other surface engineering technologies determined as extraordinarily high (10 points). The technologies were placed in the best 16 matrices of strategies for technologies, their further development and numerous applications in industrial practice should therefore be expected, and such development should be aided with development and strengthening of such proven solutions in supportive environmental conditions. The cypress in spring strategy, whereby the potential of an attractive technology is enhanced through further scientific and research works aimed at technology improvement, while using the opportunities from the environment, should be applied for the methods of ceramics/cermetals deposition ESM7 (5.0, 8.9), whose strategic position was rated very high (9 points), and casting and infiltration surface layers manufacturing methods FSM7 (4.4, 8.5) rated very high (8 points). A good strategic position (8 points) was observed for galvanic coating deposition ASM7 (7.0, 8.3) found in the field of dwarf mountain pine in spring, meaning that measures need to be undertaken to make this mature technology attractive, modern, automated, and computerized, with such processes being supported by a friendly environment, as well as for the deposition of coatings formed in low pressure from powders and sintering CSM7 (8.9, 5.0) for which the oak in autumn strategy is recommended. This strategy, appropriate for attractive technologies with a high potential being in a neutral environment, belongs to those with strong prospects and measures need to be taken to broaden the markets, customer groups, and areas of applications.
It was revealed in an analysis of strategic prospects of biomaterials surface engineering carried out using a newly established methodology of computer-integrated prediction of development that in this thematic area, regarded by experts as one of the most promising for those under examination, there are as many as six groups of technologies, HP1, DP1, AP1, JP1, BP1, and CP1, characterized by a very high strategic position (9 points). The strategies recommended for them are, however, diversified. As regards the physical and chemical vapor deposition methods (PVD/CVD) HSP1 (9.2, 8.4) and the sol–gel method DSP1 (8.9, 8.2), it is reasonable to apply the oak in spring strategy consisting of developing, strengthening, and wide application in industrial conditions of such early–mature technologies set in a friendly environment, which ensures their commercial success. The dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy is recommended for immobilization methods (6.8, 9.1) and for deposition of diamond layers and diamond-like coatings (DLC) JSP1 (7.2, 8.7), and the planned strategic measures should be aimed at making the technological solutions more attractive and modern, at automation and computerization of a machine park and at promotion, which should strengthen such mature technologies in a supportive environment. As regards the growing technology of self-organization monolayers, depositionP1 (4.5, 9.4) and pattering CP1 (5.0, 8.7) being in its early–mature phase of lifecycle – with such pattering potentially occurring in the processes of local laser irradiation, surface injection, or bombing with an ion beam – it is rather recommended to apply the cypress in spring strategy consisting of exploiting the opportunities from the environment while strengthening the technology’s potential. This strategy should also be applied for highly rated (8 points) infiltration methods ESP1 (4.2, 8.0), enabling the surface production of graded materials.
It was pointed out by analyzing the results of the heuristic studies conducted through an electronic survey of experts that the best strategic position for the critical technologies of structural metallic materials surface engineering, rated maximally with 10 points, has the physical and chemical vapor deposition methods (PVD/CVD) JSP2 (9.3, 9.5), with respect to which it is recommended to apply the oak in spring strategy consisting of attempts to achieve the guaranteed success by developing and strengthening those technologies boding well in a friendly environment. Thermal and thermochemical technologies CSP2 (7.3, 8.7) widely used in different versions and variants for the surface treatment of metal materials enjoy a very high strategic position (9 points). The group of technologies CP2 requires the dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy to make late–mature technologies more attractive and to modernize them, to computerize them, and to automate a machine park, and also to undertake promotional actions reinforcing their competitive market position at the market at which opportunities prevail. Similarly, the strategic position of the following technologies was also evaluated very high (9 points): ion implantation HSP2 (4.6, 9.2) being in its prototype phase of life and the growing ceramics/cermetals deposition technology ISP2 (3.9, 9.2). With reference to such groups of technologies, as well as to a highly evaluated (8 points) early–mature technology of laser melting/alloying FSP2 (4.7, 8.3), it is recommended to apply the cypress in spring strategy, according to which opportunities should be exploited coming fromthe environment, while making the technology more attractive and strengthening its potential, the purpose of which are for research and development works.
Contextual matrices were created, as part of a heuristic analysis carried out using a newly established methodology, visualizing the strategic positions of the individual groups of critical technologies classified to the studies under the considered thematic area of structural nonmetallic materials surface engineering. The highest possible rate (10 points) was given to chemical BSP3 (9.2, 9.3) and physical ASP3 (9.1, 9.1) vapor deposition methods with respect to which it is recommended to apply the oak in spring strategy leading to a market success in the supportive conditions of the environment. A prototype group of technologies of pulse laser deposition (PLD) or deposition using laser plasma extreme ultraviolet EUV JSP3 (4.9, 9.1) received very high rates (9 points), and the cypress in spring strategy is recommended for it assumes that the supportive environmental conditions are used and investigations into such technologies continued. The innovative – on a global scale – research into micro- and nanotreatment of organic polymers with EUV irradiation produced with laser and plasma sources is especially noteworthy. The technologies with a high strategic position (8 points) include the sol–gel method FSP3 (6.7, 8.6) and ion implantation ESP3 (6.5, 8.0) placed in 16 matrices of strategies for technologies corresponding to the dwarf mountain pine in spring, meaning that their attractiveness should be reinforced while making use of numerous opportunities coming from the environment, as well as the production of coatings in galvanization processes CSP3 (8.6, 5.1) with reference to which the oak in autumn strategy is recommended, where current benefits are derived while seeking at the same time new applications for technologies in the neutral conditions of the environment.
An analysis carried out according to the results of heuristic studies presented graphically using contextual matrices allowed to determine the strategic position of critical technologies of tool materials surface engineering. The highest possible rate (10 points) was assigned to the physical vapor deposition method (PVD) ASP4 (9.5, 8.4) found in the very promising field of the matrix of strategies for technologies – oak in spring, just like chemical vapor deposition (CVD) BSP4 (9.1, 8.1), is assigned 9 points; therefore, wide applications in industrial practice using the opportunities coming from the environment are recommended for both groups of technologies. The strategic positions of very promising prototype treatment methods, i.e., pulsed laser deposition (PLD) JSP4 (4.4, 9.0), hybrid technologies ISP4 (4.8, 9.0), and graded coating deposition technology HSP4 (4.7, 8.7), were evaluated very high (9 points) with their further development requiring continued R&D works and the use of opportunities from the environment, i.e., the cypress in spring strategy.
An analysis of strategic positions was made, using the original reference data collected during the e-foresight research conducted, of the relevant groups of technologies classified to heuristic studies in the thematic field of surface engineering of steels used in automotive industry. The following technologies have the highest strategic position (9 points) for such technologies: hot dip zincing and annealing (Zn–Fe coating) BSP5 (8.1, 9.1), whose future success is guaranteed as it was found in the most promising quarter of the matrix of strategies for technologies – oak in spring – as well as powder polymer coating deposition ISP4 (4.6, 9.0) placed in the field of cypress in spring; the potential of this early–mature technology in supportive environmental conditions needs, therefore, to be reinforced. The cypress in spring strategy is also recommended for implementation for the deposition of coatings from polymer foils JSP5 (3.9, 8.2), being currently in the growing phase, as well as for thermal spraying FSP5 (4.6, 7.9) that has entered its early–mature lifecycle phase. The strategic position of both technologies JP5 and FP5 is high (8 points), just like of painting and lacquering using liquid polymer materials HSP5 (6.8, 8.5), which – as a mature technology – corresponds to dwarf mountain pine, and supportive environmental conditions make it reasonable to apply the dwarf mountain pine in spring strategy here, in line with which it is necessary to take actions to improve its attractiveness through modernization, automation, and promotion.
A heuristic analysis using the custom methodology of computer-integrated prediction of development allowed to define the strategic positions of individual groups of technology which, as critical technologies, were analyzed in the thematic area of surface engineering of glass, micro- and optoelectronic elements, and photovoltaic elements. Physical vapor deposition (PVD) BSP6 (9.5, 8.9) that received the maximum note (10 points) and, therefore, was classified to the most promising 16 matrices of strategies for technologies –oak in spring – has the best strategic position for the technologies analyzed in this area; it is therefore recommended to develop and strengthen this group of technologies which in the future should be used more and more at a wide industrial scale, especially that the environment is very supportive. The methods of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) ASP6 (9.1, 8.4) and sol–gel methods DSP6 (8.7, 8.6) evaluated very highly (9 points) were also found in the oak in spring field. Incipient technologies, including laser texturization ESP6 (4.8, 9.1) and production of organic–inorganic hybrid coatings JSP6 (4.6, 9.3), influenced intensively by positive factors coming from the environment, require a cypress in spring strategy, consisting of strengthening the technology potential using numerous positive external events influencing positively their progress.
A heuristic analysis carried out using a newly established methodology permitted to identify the strategic positions of the relevant groups of critical technologies of polymer materials surface engineering. The results of the research reveal that five groups of technologies, i.e., BP7, HP7, JP7, IP7, and DP7, were evaluated very high (9 points), signifying good prospects of the whole thematic area. Young, promising technologies, i.e., those obtained from graded coatings on polymer surface layers HSP7 (5.0, 9.5) and self-stratifying IS (4.7, 8.9), in situ polymerization JSP7 (4.6, 9.2), and laser treatment of polymer surface layers DSP7 (4.8, 8.6), were placed in the cypress in spring field, meaning that scientific works should be continued to develop them and numerous opportunities coming from the environment should be used. A relatively simple and efficient method of corona discharges BSP7 (7.4, 8.3) widespread in industry due to low expenses, both at the investment and operation stage, was placed in the dwarf mountain pine in spring field, similar to plasma treatment of polymer surface layers CSP7 (7.0, 8.4) evaluated highly (8 points); it is thus recommended for those technologies to exploit the opportunities arising from the environment while caring at the same time for their improved attractiveness to maintain competitive advantage.
An analysis made with contextual matrices, i.e., a dendrological matrix of technology values, meteorological matrix of environment influence, and a matrix of strategies of technologies, being the result of the two first matrices and statistical lists, generated on the basis of results of the e-Delphix method, allowed to determine the strategic positions of the individual groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies against the examined thematic area to which they were classified and to define their strategic development path for the assumed time horizon of the nearest 20 years.