A complex methodological apparatus serving to diagnose the key scientific, technological, economic, and ecological issues in the area of materials surface engineering and to identify the directions of its strategic development and decision-making pertains essentially to the three overlapping fields of knowledge: materials surface engineering forming part of material engineering, technology foresight being part of a widely understood field of organization, and management and information technology originating from computer science (Fig. 2). The chapter of the book presents the forecast development of materials surface engineering over the nearest 20 years. The proposed methodological approach and the relevant selected results of the research carried out using neural networks and contextual matrices are presented. Contextual matrices were used for the graphical presentation of a strategic position of the critical materials surface engineering technologies. As part of the interdisciplinary studies pursued, a pool of methods was employed including originally matched methods already known in the literature concerning this domain, as well as completely new methods developed, verified experimentally for their correctness, and implemented in order to solve specific scientific problems. The selected results of the research conducted are presented further in the chapter in subchapters due to a limited size of this chapter.

The original reference data constituting a basis for the works performed at the further stages of the research comprises the outcomes of classical materials science experiments as well as the results of comprehensive expert studies. The overall scope of the materials science experiments performed is presented in Fig. 3, and details pertaining to this aspect are described comprehensively in the book (Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz et al. 2010b). In particular, the results of our own materials science and heuristic research are carried out for eight groups of specific technologies (S1 to S8) (Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz et al. 2011a, b, c, d, e, 2012a, b; Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz and Drygała 2011; Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz 2010a, 2011b, c; 2012a; Fig. 4), and 36 specific technologies (Table 1) were used for reviewing the correctness of the newly developed methodology of computer-integrated prediction of materials surface engineering development. After achieving the satisfactory results of reviewing the correctness of the original methodological concept, it was applied based on the results of expert studies to identify the strategic position of 140 groups of critical materials surface engineering technologies regarded as the priority technologies with the best development prospects and/or of key significance in industry over the assumed time horizon of 20 years. The results of the expert studies provided also original data used for creating the alternative scenarios of future events dependent upon the evolvement of the individual thematic areas and on the impact of key mezofactors, and artificial neural networks implemented in custom software were applied for this purpose.

A limited group of methods featuring diverse potential applications has to be selected originally from an extensive range in order to put technology foresight into life. A diagram of such methods together with their interrelations and monitoring zones and data sources is shown in Fig. 5. Originally selected methods of  organization, work, and management had contributed to generating a set of critical technologies that were next subjected to expert studies pursued in line with the concept of e-foresight. The pool of critical technologies of materials surface engineering generated in the course of the works is listed in Table 3 later in the chapter.

Electronic surveys embraced a group of nearly 400 experts from academic, industrial, and public administration circles who completed an overall of several hundred multi-question surveys (Hasan and Harris 2009) in three subsequent iterations of the studies. The scope of works pursued also included the creation of surveys, each time, in more than ten versions pertaining separately to each of the analyzed thematic areas together with an electronic online editing system.
The survey studies were carried out with the e-Delphix method (Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz 2010a, b; Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz et al. 2011f) deriving the main idea of the survey of experts, consisting of several steps, from the classical Delphi method (Costanzo and Mackay 2009; Loveridge 2009; Miller et al. 2009; Georghiou et al. 2008), but differing largely from the method in terms of methodology and in terms of the accompanying expanded information technology encompassing a virtual organization, web platform, and artificial neural networks. A virtual organization represents a system comprised of multitask elements created on a voluntary basis, functioning dynamically and structured flexibly, oriented at particular goals, and coordinated by means of information technology, allowing to collect, harmonize, select, disseminate, and manage the explicit and implicit knowledge in cyberspace. A virtual organization can be managed in cyberspace by creating, from the scratch, a web platform based on a custom concept of a computer system with a hierarchical structure. A separately developed individual algorithm had to be applied for each of the several dozens constituent modules of the platform, making up a complex multilevel structure of the platform. The last element of information technology applied in the works followed is represented by artificial neural networks developed using commercial software. An indispensable starting point for putting into life the IT goals of the work was to design a network, and the network was next enhanced with original software SCENNET21 and SCENNET48 for preparing alternative scenarios of future events for materials surface engineering. The computer programs created enabled to search a suboptimal solution randomly using the Monte Carlo method and to interpret and present the outcomes of the research followed in a graphical manner in diagrams. The approach presented, employing artificial neural networks for creating the alternative scenarios of events, is innovative and experimental and has not been described to date in the literature of the field.
The original data assembled through the electronic surveys of experts was used in further research basing on the original methodological concept for:

• Preparing alternative scenarios concerning the future of materials surface engineering
• Identifying the strategic position of the relevant critical technologies using contextual matrices
• Preparing technology roadmaps and technology information sheets

The further works performed relate to analyzing a set of various factors classified as:

• Critical macrofactors of general nature existing individually and influencing other factors strongly
• Mezofactors occurring in limited numbers and influencing other factors moderately
• Specific microfactors occurring in great numbers, characterized by sensitivity to the influence of other factors.

Three alternative scenarios of future events are considered at the macro-level: an optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenario created on the basis of the results of surveys made using an original computer system among several hundred experts. The results of the expert studies were implemented as input data into neural networks as a training, validation, and test set. Nine models of neural networks were created, of which 7 ones best meeting the set criteria were chosen to generate the final results of the research by implementing them as function into the computer system, enable to search, randomly, the solutions according to the Monte Carlo method, and to generate the final result as graphical diagrams. The final result is a set of probability values that the relevant variants of events, which depend on the occurrence of specific conditions or special factors, occur.

The mezo-level is grouping 16 key factors of the general nature influencing most greatly, in the surveyed experts’ opinion, the predicted development of materials surface engineering, presented in Fig. 6, and the 14 thematic areas analyzed were grouped into two research fields (Fig. 7). The research field M (Manufacturing) reflects a manufacturer’s point of view and encompasses production processes determined by the state of the art and a machine park’s manufacturing capacity, whereas the research field of P (Product) is conditioned by the expected functional and usable properties stemming from customer needs and is focused on the product and on the material it is made of.

The microlevel is represented by 140 groups of critical technologies comprising 10 groups of technologies selected for each of 14 thematic fields. The groups of critical technologies were selected from approx. 500 groups of specific technologies considered in the initial phase of the research according to the outcomes of studies including a state-of-the-art review, technological review, and a strategic analysis with integrated methods (STEEP, SWOT). Specific technologies can additionally be differentiated for the individual 140 groups of critical technologies, often differing in details only which can, however, substantially condition the development prospects of a particular technology and its applicability in the industrial practice. Some of the technologies, chosen in an arbitrary manner, were subjected to in-depth materials science and heuristic investigations for reviewing the correctness of the developed methodology, and the overall results were presented in the Dobrzan´ska-Danikiewicz et al. (2010b) book publication. A set of contextual matrices was created in order to determine the strategic position of the relevant groups of critical and specific technologies encompassing the dendrological matrices of technology value, the metrological matrices of environment influence, and a matrix of strategies for technologies. The matrices represent a tool of a graphical comparative analysis of the individual technologies or their groups, allowing for objectivized assessment and for determining the recommended action strategies with regard to the relevant technologies or their groups, and also to define the tracks of strategic development. The final outcome of the investigations carried out also appears in the Book of Critical Technologies, grouping a set of several hundred roadmaps and technology information sheets, representing a convenient tool for their comparative analysis according to the selected materials science, technological, or economic criterion.

A single-pole, ten-degree positive scale without zero called a universal scale of relative states (Fig. 8) was used in the surveys made in the course of the research undertaken in order to assess the factors and phenomena, where 1 is a minimum rate or a compliance level with a given characteristic/phenomenon/ factor/statement, while 10 is an extraordinarily high rate or a compliance level with a given characteristic/ phenomenon/ actor/statement. In the course of the research, the experts were also evaluating the lifecycle phases of the technologies analyzed or their groups, and a ten-degree scale compatible with the universal scale of relative states had to be established for maintaining consistency of considerations, and the ten-degree scale was used for an objectivized evaluation of the lifecycle of a given technology and group of technologies, where 1 signifies a declining technology and 10 is a technology in its incipient phase. A process of developing a new technology is accompanied by expenditures for materials, for the construction of new devices,  and for remuneration for the personnel performing research assignments, and the expenditures gradually grow, reaching their maximum at the stage of constructing and testing the prototype installations. In the case where newly developed solutions meet a manufacturer’s expectations, and one should be aware that many technologies do not go beyond a prototype testing phase, then a phase of gradual implementation into production takes place which allows the new technology to generate first profits, thus partially offsetting the costs incurred until a breakeven point is attained, i.e., a point where profits equal the expenditures made. A newly developed technology is next transiting to the growth phase, becoming more and more important for an enterprise’s general processes: first, serious profits are generated, but the costs incurred for its improvement and for ongoing modernization of the machine park usually involving its automation and robotization, for product customization, and for promotion continue to absorb large amounts. The proportions change over time as a technology entering the maturity phase generates higher and higher profits and costs decline, and this is the time long awaited by the manufacturer called – according to the terminology used in management sciences – milking the cow or harvesting the crops (Thompson and Strickland 1987; Little 1981; Hofer 1977; Glueck 1980; Henderson 1970). After a period of prosperity, profits from production using the technology begin to dwindle which usually mobilizes the company’s management to undertake rehabilitation, modernization, and improvement measures, accompanied by a promotional campaign in the media. The measures are usually moderately effective over time, and after a temporary improvement, gradual degradation of the technology – being already in its base phase – begins, and then it becomes an obsolescent technology and, as a declining technology, finally exits the market. As regards the presented typical and most classical technology lifecycle shown in Fig. 9, deviations may occur in practice usually as it relates to the duration of individual phases; untypical, sudden exclusion of the technology by other, more modern solutions; or, on contrary, its quite new applications may be found and partial duplication of its individual lifecycle phases may take place.