The optimistic scenario race won assumes that the global downturn has been averted and economic growth is seen based on peaceful cooperation and international integration. The competitive position of the European Union is strengthening in the global economy. Numerous reforms are being successfully implemented in Poland having social approval, the purpose of which is the real transformation of economy supporting the sustainable development of a knowledge-based economy. Poland is skillfully combining endogenic growth factors with foreign investments and the effective use of EU funds. The consequence of the widespread actions planned is the gradual improvement of the society’s education, the wide-scale application of innovative and environmental friendly technologies in many thriving small- and medium-sized companies (SMEs) and large corporations operating more and more often in high-tech industries, effective use of Poland’s agricultural resources, and also the development of modern transportation and ICT infrastructure. The available potential is used adequately to put into life the strategic development goals: people are, statistically, better off; social attitudes are optimistic; and prospects for the coming years bright.
In line with a neutral scenario called progress achieved, the world economic crisis has been prevented, and the world is slowly returning to the growth path in the paradigm of sustainable growth based on cooperation and international integration, although the fear of terrorism and local wars is still looming which, in unfavorable circumstances, may spread to many countries. The European Union needs to fight hard for its position among global economies, especially with regard to China and India emerging as world powers. There are efforts made in Poland, with different outcomes, to tackle reforms aimed at economy transformation, and the reforms are often opposed by the society and the people’s reluctance toward change. Poland is attempting to make use of EU funds, but not all the money is managed effectively. The introduction of a knowledge-based economy and sustainable development brings such results as the growing education level of the society and its environmental awareness. The SME sector is developing at a constant but slow rate, and the level of implementing the innovative and environmental technologies leaves still much to wish for. Large corporations operate mainly in medium–low and medium–high technologies. The country is constantly facing problems in public finance, agriculture, and healthcare, and a modern transportation and ICT infrastructure is developing steadily, but relatively slowly. The available potential is only partly used to achieve the strategic development goals, statistically people are slightly better off but social attitudes are mixed. Theoretically, quite good development prospects for the coming years depend primarily upon the circumstances in the European and world economy, wise management of public funds in long term, and on how quickly the relevant reforms supported with the society’s involvement are introduced.
The pessimistic scenario inclined plane provides that the economic crisis has been slowed down to some degree only. The world is facing terrorism, growing oil prices, aftermaths of disasters, and local wars spreading to more and more countries. The European Union stays behind other global economies, especially China and India emerging as global powers. Usually unsuccessful attempts are made in Poland to tackle reforms serving to transform economy, and these are facing social disapproval and strong reluctance toward changes. The EU funds allocated to Poland dwindle year by year, and most of themoney is used to save the current economy, but the level of investments is plummeting. The implementation of the knowledge-based economy and sustainable development concepts, initially boding well, is now weakening. The SME sector is developing sluggishly, and innovative environmental technologies cannot usually be applied due to the lack of investments and the low availability of credits. Large corporations operate in medium–low and medium–high technologies, and many of them go bankrupt and move their head offices to Asia. The country is constantly facing problems in public finance, agriculture, healthcare, education, and transportation infrastructure. The available potential to achieve the strategic development goals – which most apparently had been wrongly formulated – is underutilized: statistically people are worse off and this is accompanied by social unrests. Development prospects for the coming years are weak, and Poland will be heading for a disaster if a sudden breakthrough is not seen.
Deductive reasoning was undertaken under the research conducted consisting in seeking the combinations of micro- and mezofactors that would contribute, with specific probability, to the occurrence of each of the three possible macroscenarios in the future. Using contextual matrices, strategic positions of specific technologies and groups of critical technologies were presented, corresponding to the microlevel, together with their predicted development – presented as statistics and/or technology strategic development tracks prepared based on the results of the expert studies. A methodology of IT studies based on artificial neural networks and original software SCENNET21 and SCENNET48 with artificial neural networks implemented as functions designed using commercial software Statistica 4.0F was applied for analyzing mutual interactions between events at a macro- and microscale. The results of the expert studies in the form of probability values of occurrence of the relevant analyzed phenomena, acquired in the electronic survey of experts with the e-Delphix method, were used as input variables divided into the following subsets: a training, validation, and test subset that were used for training neural networks. Output variables, on the other hand, are generated as different diagrams presenting relationships between the probability values of different macroscenarios subject to relevant trends of other factors of the analysis. This concept is illustrated with a diagram in Fig. 10.