The Loss of Occupations in the UK
Theory
This essay examines certain trends and technological changes will remove occupations from the total workforce of the UK between 2018 and 2100.
The Trends and Technological Changes are.
Automation of Occupation.
Phasing out of Fossil Fuels up to 2050.
Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
Environment Depletion.
Resource Depletion.
Energy Depletion.
Artificial Intelligence.
Definitions
In the scope of this essay the nature of occupation is taken as
‘Occupation’
‘A job or profession.’
Source: Google Search Definition
‘A daily routine carried out to finance your life for 48 years of your total life.’
‘The use of Time.’
‘An education extended to a skill that changes a society.’
‘A method of revenue transfer through an economy to maintain the incentive within a state to keep the majority of the population alive.’
‘Automation’
‘The use or introduction of automatic equipment in a manufacturing or other process or facility.’
Source: Google Search Definition
‘Automation or automatic control, is the use of various control systems for operating equipment with minimal or reduced human intervention.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation
In this essay ‘automation’ includes ‘robotics’, ‘cybernetics’ and ‘artificial intelligence’.
Method
The nature of occupation is determined from each of its definitions.
The current occupation data; taken from the V5 of the Standard Occupational Classification 2010 Coding Index SOC2010; is examined to establish a total number of occupations.
Source:http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160130011758/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guidemethod/classifications/current-standard-classifications/soc2010/soc2010-volume-2-the-structure-and-index/index.html
Each of the trends and technological changes are then examined and their effects in terms of changes to the number of occupations and as a percentage change are established.
Conclusions are then drawn.
References are included in the text and at the end of the essay.
The Nature of Occupation as a Job or Profession.
Any human being; and all occurrences in their life; is fundamentally a product of probability and mathematics. Occupation can therefore be examined through probability and mathematics to establish its nature.
The probability of any human existing in the world is 1 in 10 2,685,000
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/infographic-the-odds-of-being-alive-2012-6?IR=T
The chances of being a person in the UK surviving to the age of 100 have improved through changes in healthcare and lifestyles and so depend on their current age and the year they were born.
Source: https://visual.ons.gov.uk/what-are-your-chances-of-living-to-100/
If a person is in work as an adult in 2018 they will be approx. aged between 18 and 66.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/employment-contracts-and-conditions
Source: https://www.ageuk.org.uk/information-advice/money-legal/pensions/changes-to-state-pension-age/
The life expectancy from being 18 years old is 83 years. This allows for 48 years of occupation and 23 years of post retirement.
The life expectancy from being 66 years old is 87 years. This allows for 48 years of occupation and 21 years of post retirement.
The number of people of working age in 2016 was approx. 63% of the total population.
This would allow for 63% x 65,648,054 in 2016. 41,358,274 people
The actual number in the labour force in the UK in 2016 was 31,760,000 people. 48%
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/dec2016
The non-working part of the UK population account for 52% of the total population.
Non-Occupation dominates over occupation in the UK.
Occupation as a job or profession is not as important as non-occupation in the UK.
The Nature of Occupation as Time
A day in the UK is 24 hours.
A working person in the UK spends 1 hour a day washing and dressing. 1 hour a day eating. 2 hours a day in leisure. 2 hours a day travelling to work. 8 hours of each day of their lives for 48 years in work and 10 hours a day sleeping.
A non-working person varies this timescale by travelling to get provisions each day to live, in school, raising children or travelling.
Humans spend the majority of their time being unoccupied, unproductive and unaware of themselves or the Universe.
The Nature of Occupation as a Routine.
Occupation as a daily routine carried out to finance a life for 48 years of a total lifespan is not the concern of the whole population of the UK. Only 48% of the UK work to maintain the larger 52% of the total population.
Occupation is not a routine it is a choice.
The majority of the UK population have chosen not to have an occupation.
The Nature of Occupation as an Education and a Skill.
Occupation as an education extended to a skill that changes a society is not an innovation by an individual it is a standard system the UK society has set up to allow those with the greatest desire or skill to progress through to a higher education and to have increased access to information, clients, patrons and hierarchy and so influence changes in the current society.
The Nature of Occupation as Revenue Transfer.
Occupations can be regarded as a method of establishing revenue transfer through an economy to maintain the incentive within some of the population to keep the majority of the population alive.
The primary input of money into the economy each year is from Public Sector Current Receipts from the previous year. These are provided from occupations.
The secondary inputs of money into the economy each year are from Income tax (gross of tax credits), Value added tax VAT and National insurance contributions. These are provided from occupations.
Occupations therefore directly influence the major flows of money through an economy and so influence incentives to survive and improve the economy from the previous year.
The previous year Public Sector Current Receipts of the economy also have an impact on the ability for an occupation to remain active for another year irrespective of the nature of the occupation, its automation level, fossil fuel dependency, emissions or its depletion of environment, resources and energy.
Occupation Data Set.
The V5 Standard Occupational Classification 2010 Coding Index SOC2010 data covers 28,748 classifications of occupations. This data has been filtered to remove all duplicates, alphabet only classifications and grades. The filtered data covers a total of 21,136 classifications of occupations which are used as the base set for the extent of this essay.
Having established the current nature of occupations and the base set of data to be examined the trends and technological changes of Automation, Phasing out of Fossil Fuels from 2030 to 2050, Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Environment Depletion, Resource Depletion and Energy Depletion can be examined and their effect established.
Automation
Studies on the effects of automation of the labour force have been undertaken. From the results of each of these studies conclusions regarding the percentage and number of occupations likely to be automated can be established.
In 2013 Frey and Osborne published’ The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation ?’ This study reported that up to 47% of total US employment was at risk from automation.
This; related to the UK; equates to 47% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 47% accounts for 9,933 occupations.
In 2014 Deloitte collaborated with carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University on ‘Agiletown: The relentless march of technology and London’s response.’
They found that 35% of today’s jobs in the UK are at high risk of automation in the next 10 to 20 years.
Source:https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/technology-media-telecommunications/deloitte-uk-transformers-2016.pdf
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 30,190,000 in 2014.
Source: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160107100156/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_354442.pdf
This equates to 35% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated in the next two decades. 10,566,500 jobs.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 35% accounts for 7,397 occupations.
In 2015 the BBC published ‘Will a robot take your job?’ it estimated that about 35% of current jobs in the UK are at high risk of computerisation over the following 20 years, according to a study by researchers at Oxford University and Deloitte.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34066941
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 31,300,000 in Dec. 2015.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/december2015
This equates to 35% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated; replaced by robots; in the next 20 years.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 35% accounts for 7,397 occupations.
In 2015 The Bank of England predicted that 15,000,000 jobs in the UK could be at risk of automation over the coming 10 to 20 years.
Source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8152
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/12/robots-threaten-low-paid-jobs-says-bank-of-england-chief-economist
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 31,300,000 in Dec. 2015.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/december2015
This equates to 48% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated; replaced by robots; in the next 15 years.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 48% accounts for 10,145 occupations.
In 2016 Deloitte carried out a study that concluded that 5,043,000 total jobs in the wholesale & retail sector, transport & storage sector and the human health & social work sector have a high chance of being automated in the next two decades.
Source: https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/press-releases/articles/automation-and-industries-analysis.html#
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 22,980,000 in 2016.
Source: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160107100156/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_354442.pdf
This equates to 22% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated in the next two decades.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 22% accounts for 4,649 occupations.
In 2016 an OECD report ‘The Risk for automation in OECD Countries’ concluded that 10% of workers in the UK were at risk due to job automation.
Source: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/the-risk-of-automation-for-jobs-in-oecd countries_5jlz9h56dvq7-en;jsessionid=1dswkddyk5cl3.x-oecd-live-02
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 22,980,000 in 2016.
Source: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160107100156/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_354442.pdf
This equates to 10% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated in the next two decades. 2,298,000 jobs.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 10% accounts for 2,114 occupations.
In 2017 the consultancy firm PwC indicated that more than 10,000,000 UK workers are at high risk of being replaced by robots within 15 years as the automation of routine tasks gathers pace in a new machine age.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/24/millions-uk-workers-risk-replaced-robots-study-warns
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 32,250,000 in 2017-2018.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018
This equates to 31% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated; replaced by robots; in the next 15 years.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 31% accounts for 6,552 occupations.
In 2017 a McKinsey & Company study found that about 30% of tasks in 60% of occupations could be computerized.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/26/jobs-future-automation-robots-skills-creative-health
Allowing for a total employed, occupation; labour force of 32,250,000 in 2017-2018.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/march2018
This equates to 30% of 60% of the occupied labour force who have a high chance of being automated.
Out of the 21,136 classifications of occupations 30% of 60% accounts for 3,804 occupations.
The conclusions from these studies suggest that of 21,136 occupations in 2018 between 2,114 to 10,145; 10% to 48% of occupations could be lost in the next 20 years to automation.
This would leave 10,991 to 19,022 occupations remaining in the UK after automation.
Phasing out of Fossil Fuels up to 2050
Fossil fuels will be phased out up to 2050 to comply with the Climate Change Act 2008 and International Climate Change Agreements.
Source: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out
The UK can be shown from data to be historically dependant on fossil fuels in terms of its Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption as a Percentage of Total Energy Consumption.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Agricultural_Revolution
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out#United_Kingdom
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_Kingdom#/media/File:Fossil_fuel_consumption_in_the_United_Kingdom.svg
From the 1960’s this dependency has been reducing.
In 1960 the UK was 99% dependant on fossil fuels.
In 2015 the UK was 81% dependant on fossil fuels.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS?locations=GB&view=chart
Based on this historical dependency and the 1960 to 2015 data a direct correlation between the percentage dependence on fossil fuels to generate the total energy consumed in the UK and the total number of occupations using that total energy can be made.
Allowing 100% of occupations to be 21,136 occupations.
Allowing for the oldest working person in the UK to be 66 years old.
This would place their birth year in 1952.
This would give them a working age of 18 in 1970.
The data from 1960 therefore contains all of the potential current occupations.
In 1960. 99% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 20,924 occupations.
In 1970. 96% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21136 occupations this is 20,290 occupations.
In 1980. 95% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 20,079 occupations.
In 1990. 91% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 19,234 occupations.
In 2000. 88% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 18,599 occupations.
In 2010. 88% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 18,599 occupations
In 2015. 81% of all occupation are dependant on fossil fuels.
Out of 21,136 occupations this is 17,120 occupations.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS?locations=GB&view=chart
The conclusions from this data suggest that out of a current total of 21,136 occupations between 17,120 and 20,294; 81% to 99% of occupations could be lost by 2030 as fossil fuels are phased out since they are historically dependent on them to exist.
This would leave 842 to 4,016 occupations remaining in the UK after Phasing out of Fossil Fuels up to 2050.
Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The UK’s historical dependency on fossil fuels also indicates that it has high historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
The current Climate Change Act 2008 relates all emissions reductions back to 1990.
Source: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.ZG?locations=GB
In terms of the Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions as a Percentage Change from 1990.
In 1991 the UK was 0.694% above 1990 base level.
In 2001 the UK was -12.115% below 1990 base level.
In 2010 the UK was -21.570% below 1990 base level.
In 2012 the UK was -24.634% below 1990 base level.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.ZG?locations=GB
The data indicates that occupations, industries in the UK and the economy have been dependant on fossil fuels and so have all been emitters of green-house gases up to 1990.
As with fossil fuel phase out data a direct correlation between the percentage emissions of the UK and the percentage of occupations creating the emissions can be made.
Allowing 100% of occupations to be 21,136 occupations.
Allowing for the oldest working person in the UK to be 66 years old.
This would place their birth year in 1952.
This would give them a working age of 18 in 1970.
The data from 1990 therefore contains all of the potential current occupations.
In 1990. 100 + 0.694% of all occupation are emitters. 21,136 occupations.
In 2001. 100 – 12.115%, 88% of all occupation are emitters. 18,599 occupations.
In 2010. 100 – 21.570%, 78% of all occupation are emitters. 16,486 occupations
In 2012. 100 – 24.634%, 75% of all occupation are emitters. 15,852 occupations.
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS?locations=GB&view=chart
The conclusions from this data suggest that as emissions are reducing the number of occupations remaining as emitters of greenhouse gases is also reducing.
In 2012, 15,852 occupations remained that would need to be removed or adapted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This would leave 5,284 occupations remaining in the UK after a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Environment Depletion
Between 2018 and 2100 the population of the UK is estimated to increase by 37% from 66,573,504 to 91,227,569.
Source: www.UKometers.info/UK-population/uk-population/
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/uk-population-to-hit-70-million-ons-in-less-than-a-decade
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary
Between 2018 and 2100 the land area of the UK is estimated to decrease by 23% from 243,610 km2 to 187,579.7 km2 due to sea level rise caused by global warming.
Source: CIA World Fact book 2017
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-235---the-greenland-ice-sheet-effect-on-the-uk
This allows a 2018 land area per person and so occupation of 0.003 km2 per person.
This allows a 2100 land area per person and so occupation of 0.002 km2 per person.
This equates to 66% of the 2018 area per person or occupation area depleted by 2100.
The conclusions from this data suggest that environmental depletion will reduce the current availability of environment per person and so occupations by 66%.
This equates to 13,949 occupations that would be removed due to environmental depletion.
This would leave 7,187 occupations remaining in the UK after environmental depletion.
Resource Depletion
As the land area depletes so the resources available to carry out an occupation deplete.
The resource depletion of occupations is therefore estimated at 66%.
This equates to 13,949 occupations that would be removed due to resource depletion.
This would leave 7,187 occupations remaining in the UK after resource depletion.
Energy Depletion
The UK must reduce greenhouse gas emissions back to 1990 levels to comply with the Climate Change Act 2008 and International Climate Change Agreements.
To achieve this an 80% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2050 must occur. To achieve this all of the UK fossil fuel energy production must cease by 2050.
Taking the previous fossil fuel energy consumption as a percentage of total energy consumption this is a reduction of 81% of 2015 energy consumption levels.
In 2015 the total energy consumption was 1,602,614,000,000 kWh.
For a population in 2015 this would be an energy consumption per capita of
1,602,614,000,000 kWh / 65,130,000
24,606 kwh / year /person.
If 24,606 kwh / year /person equates to 21,136 occupations.
This allows for 1.16 kwh/ year / person / occupation.
The energy consumption reduction would be 81% of 1,602,614,000,000 kWh.
Source:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/513244/Press_Notice_March_2016.pdf
This in kwh is 1,298,117,340,000 kwh.
This would require a reduction in consumption per capita of
1,298,117,340,000 kwh / 65,130,000
19,931 kwh / year /person reduction.
Allowing for 1.16 kwh/ year / person / occupation.
Allows for 17,181 occupations.
This would leave 17,181 occupations remaining in the UK after energy depletion.
Artificial Intelligence. A.I.
Currently A.I. is only ‘weak or narrow’ It is a machine intelligence with limited programming input and non-sentience that is focused on one narrow task.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weak_AI
By 2050 A.I will have evolved to be ‘strong A.I’. This is an artificial human level intelligence with constant programming input that allows for machines with consciousness, sentience and mind.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence
By 2100 Artificial General Intelligence will have evolved. This will allow machines to self-create and be capable of applying sensory intelligence constantly to any problem, rather than just one specific problem.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence
The speed of this revolution will be far higher than the previous agricultural and industrial revolutions.
It could occur over decades at 300 times the scale and 3000 times the impact of these revolutions.
Source: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8152
Source: Professor Tony J Prescott (ROB0020) para 1 ref: in above CBP-8152
Source: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, ‘The four global forces breaking all the trends’, McKinsey Global Institute (April 2015) ref: in above CBP-8152
The agricultural revolution can be stated to exist from 1500 to 1850. Over 350 years.
The industrial revolution can be stated to exist from 1760 to 1840. Over 80 years.
This from 1500 to 1850 is a combined timescale of 350 years.
These periods coincide with a population of variance of 20,000,000 people from 1350 to 1850.
The total population effected in 1850 being approx. 22,287,069.
Source:https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-244---the-green-house-gas-architecture-of-the-uk-1715-to-2018 and associated references
A.I. is capable of 300 times this scale. It could be fully implemented in 2 years. By 2020.
A.I is capable of 3000 times this scale. It could affect 66,861,207,000 people by 2020.
Well beyond the population of the Earth projected for 2100.
A.I. cannot be restrained once it is established; like human intelligence; it will spread globally; exponentially; and then self-evolve.
Automation systems with A.I. will need to be integrated into human society as members of the labour force and population with legal rights and tax paying contributions to the economy.
By 2050 humans and machine intelligence will be merging to produce a new species.
Conclusions
The nature of occupations can be defined.
Occupations are forced, transient, transfer mechanisms, of revenue, incentive, product, climate change and depletion in the UK economy. They are secondary to non-occupation in the UK.
The reducing trend in UK occupations means a smaller workforce, reduced income tax input, reduced national insurance and reduced VAT input into the Public Sector Current Receipts from each preceding year up to the end of the century. In 2016 - 2017 these amounted to 62% of the previous year Public Sector Receipts.
This will reduce the whole UK economy funding per year by 62% from 2018 to 2100.
The whole UK economy is therefore likely to reduce in size from 2018.
Automation of Occupation, Phasing out of Fossil Fuels up to 2050, Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Environment Depletion, Resource Depletion, Energy Depletion and Artificial Intelligence are trends, technological changes that will remove certain occupations from the UK between 2018 and 2100.
They can be listed in terms of scale of effect on 21,136 occupations from largest to smallest.
There would be 842 to 4,016 occupations remaining in the UK after Phasing out of Fossil Fuels up to 2050.
There would be 5,284 occupations remaining in the UK after a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
There would be 7,187 occupations remaining in the UK after environmental depletion.
There would be 7,187 occupations remaining in the UK after resource depletion.
There would be 10,991 to 19,022 occupations remaining in the UK after automation.
There would be 17,181 occupations remaining in the UK after energy depletion.
There would be a new species of human machine hybrid in the UK after A.I. is fully implemented.
A revolution is occurring in the occupations of the UK that cannot be avoided neither can its architecture.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
29/03/2018
22/05/2018
14/10/2020
3580 words over 9 pages