Britain’s Energy Problem
The way to establish a scientific truth is to guess, then analyze the available data, then to test the guess by experiment.
The Guess.
Britain is a collection of Islands.
It relies on imports to maintain its energy economy.
Britain should have an energy economy based on internal resource and internal energy generation to survive.
In order to keep agreements in accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty, the Earth Summit, in Rio de Janerio in 1992 and the subsequent Kyoto and Cancun agreements Britain will have to establish an energy economy of 20% of current levels.
Source: Unburnable-Carbon-2013 Wasted Capital and Stranded Assets.-Web-Version
However in order to achieve the reduction in Carbon Dioxide from the current 400ppm to 283ppm to reach the 2 deg c level of increase it is necessary to push this 20% level to a zero level.
The required level of CO2 ppmv returns the fossil fuel use back to an earlier age before industrialization back to an 1850 technology level.
This at the same production rate allows for a maximum end use date for fossil fuels of 2066 in 53 years time.
The need for energy will increase as the population increases up to the predicted 77,000,000 in 2050, If the international protocols and agreements are maintained the ability of Britain to provide for its population will decrease as fossil fuels decrease.
Localization by country, then region, then county, then by settlement is the only way variable localized energy reserves can be used through this period up to 2082.
The Data
Britain is a collection of Islands.
Britain is, by visual examination, a collection of Islands.
Looking deeper Britain is also connected to Europe by sea, air, tunnels, pipelines, communications, languages, cultures, weather, climate, geology, laws, health controls, animals, plants, and people. So it is a collection of umbilical connected ecologies.
Does Britain rely on imports to maintain its energy economy.
Taking each energy type in turn.
Electricity
Britain produces 352.7 billion kWh (2010 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain consumes 325.8 billion kWh (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
This in the 2013 population of 63,395,574 people is 5139 kwh person/year
This in the 2050 population of 77,000,000 is 4231 kwh/person/year
Britain appears to be able to produce enough electricity for its needs.
However the electricity in 2011 was mostly generated by gas then coal, then nuclear, then wind, then hydro, then bio fuels and finally waste.
"Nuclear Power in the United Kingdom". World Nuclear Association. April 2013. Retrieved 9 April 2013.
75.4% of total installed capacity (2009 est.) came from fossil fuels.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Conclusion. Britain is limited in its fuel resources it is reliant on imports of world wide limited energy resources to maintain its electricity supply.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to an 1850 level.
Britain would have to immediately stop its use of fossil fuels and generate its energy by alternative fuels.
Crude Oil
Britain produced 1,099,000 bbl/day (2011 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain exported 788,900 bbl/day (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain imported 942,100 bbl/day (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain crude oil reserves were 310,100 bbl/day
(from 2011-2009est)
Britain’s reserve and imported crude oil reserves were 1,252,200 bbl/day
(from 2011-2009 est)
Britain’s Crude oil, proved reserves stood at 2.827 billion bbl in 2013.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
This, allowing for the 2011 production rate, gives a lifespan of 2572 days or 7 years.
Peaking at 3.5 years. This places the end of Britain’s oil resource at 2018-2020
Crude Oil refining Capacity
Britain has approx. 40 fuel terminals
Source: http://www.ukpia.com/industry_information/refining-and-uk-refineries/Essar-stanlow.aspx
The total refining capacity of Britain is 65.5 million tonnes crude oil per year
This equates to a fleet of supertankers that travel at least 256 times a year just to get the oil that Britain needs to survive.
At 1 barrel of crude oil = to 0.1364 metric tonnes
Source: BP
This allows for 8 barrels per tonne (for gasoline)
This allows for 524 million barrels of crude oil being refined per year
Britain consumes 1.608 million bbl/day
Source: CIA World Factbook 2011 est
This equates to 587 million barrels a year being consumed
This is more than being refined in Britain 587 - 524 = 63 million barrels of crude oil imported.
This would equate to 8 million tonnes a year of oil imports
This equates to an additional fleet of 32 full super tankers a year to get the additional oil Britain consumes a year.
This means that Britain would need to finance, build, crew, fuel,
and maintain a fleet of super tankers that travelled at least 288 times a year to maintain is current consumption of crude oil.
Conclusion. Britain must import crude oil to survive and increase that import amount each year until it becomes totally dependant upon oil imports.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain would have to immediately stop its use of fossil fuels and generate its energy by alternative fuels.
Refined Petroleum Products
Everyday life is dependant upon plastics, medicines, artificial fibres chemicals and fuels. Britain as a consumer based economy is no exception.
Britain had a refined petroleum products production of 1.584 million bbl/day in 2009
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain had a refined petroleum products consumption of 1.608 million bbl/day in 2011
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain imported refined petroleum products to the value of 493,500 bbl/day in 2009
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain exported refined petroleum products to the value of 535,300 bbl/day in 2009
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Conclusion. Britain must, for its current society and culture, reduce its consumption of refined petroleum products and also reduce its dependency on refined petroleum product imports to survive.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain would have to find alternative ways of manufacturing its current refined petroleum products using alternative energy sources.
Gas
Britain produced in 2011 47.43 billion cu m of natural gas.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britain consumed 82.21 billion cu m in 2011 of natural gas.
Britain exported 16.69 billion cu m in 2011 of natural gas.
Britain imported 53.43 billion cu m in 2011 of natural gas.
Britain’s natural gas, proven reserves stood at 253 billion cu m in 2012.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
If Britain became totally reliant on its own reserves then allowing for at 2011 production rate, its gas reserves would last 5 years. Peaking at 2.5 years. This places the end of Britain’s natural gas reserve at 2016-2020
Conclusion. Britain currently consumes far more gas than it produces. Its natural gas reserves are limited and will run out in the next decade.
Britain must currently import more natural gas than it produces for its energy economy to survive.
Britain has to completely remove its dependency on natural gas to survive. The use of natural gas imports also has, as has been noted, an effect on electricity production potential in Britain which will have to be revised, with alternative fuels if it is to be maintained.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain would have to totally stop its use of fossil fuels and generate its energy by alternative fuels.
Shale Gas
Britain’s shale gas reserves are estimated at 36812 billion cu m
Britain’s shale gas consumption at current gas consumption levels is 82.21 billion cu m
This would give a shale gas reserve depletion year of 448 years up to 2461
This would give a shale gas peak reserve year at 224 years up to 2237
Source: BGS and BBC News 2013
The shale gas reserves require a ‘fraking’ process to allow the gas to flow out of the rock strata in which it is potentially held.
This process may release greenhouse gases, need large quantities of fresh water and cause localised earth movement.
Previous estimates for recovering shale gas were 10-15% of the assessed drilling license area and volume.
This would then revise the figures to
Britain’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at 5.5218 billion cu m
Britain’s shale gas consumption at current gas consumption levels is 82.21 billion cu m / year
This would give a shale gas reserve depletion year of less than 1 year up to 2014
This would give a shale gas peak reserve year at 1 year up to 2014
If the shale gas reserves listed in the report ‘The unconventional hydrocarbon resources of Britain’s onshore basins – Shale Gas Promote UK 2013. BGS’ are used Britain’s reserve of shale gas could be as high as 150 bcm at a recoverable level of 15% this would allow for 23 bcm.
This would then revise the figures to
Britain’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at 23 billion cu m
Britain’s shale gas consumption at current gas consumption levels is 82.21 billion cu m / year
This would give a shale gas reserve depletion year of less than 1 year up to 2014
This would give a shale gas peak reserve year at 1 year up to 2014
The current cost estimate of shale gas was $200 per barrel of oil against North Sea Oil of $120 per barrel of oil.
Source: Gloyston, Henning and Johnstone, Christopher (17 April 2012) Exclusive - UK has vast shale gas reserves, geologists say Reuters Edition UK, Accessed 17 April 2012
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain’s shale gas reserves are estimated at 36812 billion cu m
Source: BGS and BBC News 2013
Britain’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at 1.65 billion cu m.
Britain would be allowed to recover 495,000,000 cu m of this resource.
Britain’s shale gas consumption at current gas consumption levels would be allowed to be 24.66 billion cu m instead of the 82.21 billion cu m of 2011.
This allows for an immediate depletion of the shale gas supply.
Conclusion. This indicates that, despite the initial surveys, the practicality of shale gas extraction is not yet solved. The amount recoverable is to low for it to be a viable fuel source.
Coal
Britain total coal production in 2012 was 16.8 million tonnes
Britain total coal consumption in 2012 was 64 million tonnes
Britain’s total coal imports in 2012 were 44.8 million tonnes
Britain total coal reserves in 2011 stood at 3196 million tonnes
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
Britain’s total coal reserves, divided by production, gives a total lifespan of coal reserve of 190 years up till the year 2201.
Britain’s coal peak point by production will be about 95 years in 2106.
Britain’s total lifespan of coal reserve divided by consumption will be about 49 years up till the year 2060.
Britain’s coal peak point by consumption will be 25 years about the year 2037.
Conclusion. Britain is consuming more coal than it produces.
Britain has large coal reserves but is still importing coal as a fuel.
In order to use this resource before fuels for vehicles and mining machinery deplete after 2020 Britain has to move its energy economy into mining its resources.
Politically this will also cause Britain to come into conflict with the Kyoto protocols. Britain may have no choice if its wishes to survive.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain would have to immediately stop its use of fossil fuels and generate its energy by alternative fuels.
Nuclear.
Britain in 2013 had 16 to 24 nuclear plants including R & D reactors.
There were 9 to 10 operational nuclear generating plants in 2013.
Britain’s installed nuclear generating capacity accounted for 10.8 million kW out of the 88.02 million kW in 2013.
Britain’s Nuclear plants accounted for 12.3% of its total installed generating capacity in 2009.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
The last nuclear plant will be closed by 2035.
As energy and resources to manufacture nuclear plants decrease the likelyhood of other nuclear plants being built will also reduce.
Conclusion. Britain’s nuclear energy input into the production of its electricity is small. Its capacity could only be increased if a massive nuclear power plant construction programme were instigated. To achieve the 325.8 billion kWh of electricity consumption at 2009 requirements with 1.2 gigawatt nuclear power stations would require 271,500 nuclear power stations, which is totally unfeasible even if suitable sites could be found.
The last indicator to the future form of energy policy for nuclear is the rate of decommissioning of nuclear plants which will result in the closure of all current nuclear station by 2035.
Therefore the future of nuclear power in Britain is as an ever expanding or a short term support system to the production of energy.
Wind
The installed number of wind farms in Britain in 2013 was 362.
These account for 8,445 megawatts about 5% of the total energy generation.
Source: EWEA Wind In Power.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain’s wind farm energy input into the production of electricity is small.
As energy and resources to manufacture wind farms decreases the likelyhood of other windfarms being built will also decrease.
Conclusion. Britain’s wind farm energy input into the production of electricity is small. The energy lost in the distribution grid to the consumer is also a large factor in the wind farm effectiveness. If they could be localised to areas of the country with high wind speeds and be coupled to battery storage then they would be more effective.
Hydro
In 2009 Britain’s total installed capacity of hydro generation was 1.9% of total installed capacity.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain’s hydro energy input into the production of electricity is small.
As energy and resources to manufacture hydro plants decreases the likelyhood of other hydroplants being built will also decrease.
Conclusion. Britain’s hydro energy input into the production of electricity is small.
However if, as seems likely, environmental concerns will give way to need, then they can be built under civil works programmes quite rapidly.
The energy lost in the distribution grid to the consumer is also a large factor in the hydro energy effectiveness.
There is also a reliance on turbines which in turn have a reliance on lubricants from the petroleum industry if they are to operate at all.
Biofuels and Waste
In 2009 Britain’s installed capacity of biofuel and waste recycled energy was 7.3% of total installed capacity.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
Britain’s biofuel energy input into the production of electricity is small.
As energy and resources to manufacture biofuel and waste plants decreases the likely hood of other biofuel and waste plants being built will also decrease.
Conclusion. Britain’s biofuel and waste recycled energy input into the production of electricity is small.
There is also a reliance on transportation systems and turbines which in turn have a reliance on fuels and lubricants from the petroleum industry if they are to operate at all.
Solar
Britain’s solar energy input is very limited due to the weather patterns and climate of the country. It also is reliant on imports for the manufacture of solar panels and systems.
Effect of achieving a 2 deg C maximum increase in climate temperatures as per international agreements to reduce energy to 1850 levels.
As energy and resources to manufacture solar energy plants or panels decreases the likely hood of other solar energy plants or panels being built will also decrease.
The Experiment
In order to achieve the continuing supply of energy to its population to ensure that they survive the extremes of Britain’s climate the governments of the future will have to admit that they will have to continuously adapt the existing energy network by experimentation. Localization of responsibility is key to this strategy. Each area must isolate and create its own energy system. National grids are no longer viable since they do not store the energy they produce or transfer.
Moving Britain away from world sourced energy imports is crucial to reduce dependency on limited duration energy sources.
There is no energy system currently available to provide all of the power necessary for the population of Britain.
Natural coal reserves of Britain could be re-opened to allow the country to become self-sufficient in energy. This goes against the current environmental considerations but needs will decide policy as energy depletes.
Britain will have to change its state, political, economic, and cultural form.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
18/09/2013
14/10/2020
2899 words over 8 pages