State Demographic Transition Population Control
Background
There is an unusual demographic transition between 1976 and 1977 in Britain that is indicated by the birth rate and the death rate matching each other and the population remaining stagnant.
This type of occurrence; according to the American Demographer Warren Thompson; marks the transition from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.
This raises the questions
Did this transition actually take place in Britain?
What may have been the causes of this transition?
What lasting effects did it have?
The following statistical data covers the period from 1960 to 1980 to allow the key 1976-1977 period to be established and examined within statistical and historic changes that could have been of influence.
The Indicators of Population Control
The indicators in statistical census data for annual population growth are
Population rate, Live birth rate, Death rate, Natural Change, Fertility rate and Population Density.
To these can be added the historic events relating to Housing and Construction, Energy, Transport, Education, Health, Economic, Political, Media, Life Span, Leisure, Needs and Environmental.
Population rate:
This increased between 1960 and 1974.
It then stagnated, levelled off, between 1974 up to 1977.
It then increased from 1978.
Source: ONS
The unusual indicators here are the large fall in population, the levelling off of the population and then an increase in population.
Live Birth rate:
This increased from 1960 up to 1964.
It then decreased from 1965 to 1977.
It then increased from 1978.
If all of the countries in the UK are examined England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland the same drop in birth rate occurs from about 1965 and continues until the mid 1970’s.
Source: ONS
The unusual indicators here are the large initial increase in birth rate and then the large fall in birth rate.
Death rate:
This fluctuated from 1960 to 1976.
It was in balance with the birth rate in 1976 and 1977.
It then fluctuated from 1977 to 1980.
Only England, Scotland and Wales have a cross over in the mid 1970’s between birth rate and death rate over the same time period.
Source: ONS
Source: Chapter 5: Fertility and mortality Focus on People and Migration: 2005 Births, deaths and natural change: UK countries, 1901 to 2004 Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
The unusual indicator here is the Death rate and Live Birth rate being roughly in balance in 1976 and 1977.
Natural change in birth and death rate:
This fluctuated from 1960 to 1972.
From 1972 to 1976 it decreased.
In 1976 it decreased to negative amount (-4,570).
Source: ONS
The unique indicator here is the decrease to a negative value of the natural change due to the live birth rate and the death rate achieving the same level in 1976 to 1977.
Population density:
This increased from 1960 to 1973.
It then levelled off from 1973 to 1980.
It then increased from 1981.
Source: ONS
The important indicator here is the levelling off of the population density from 1973 to 1980.
Fertility rate:
This increased from 1960 to 1964.
It then decreased from 1965 to 1977.
It then increased from 1977 to 1980.
From 1965 up to the mid 1970's Fertility rates in both males and females had been falling.
From 1967 Northern Ireland has had a higher Total Fertility Rate than the other UK countries.
From the mid 1960' to the 1970's the mean age for men and women at childbirth decreased.
and caused the 1960's baby boom.
From the 1970's to the current time the mean age for men and women at childbirth was increasing.
From 1973 / 1974 in England, Wales and Scotland the Fertility rate had been below the level required to replace the population.
From the 1960's the majority of births occurred to married or cohabiting couples.
Source: ONS
Source: Chapter 5: Fertility and mortality Focus on People and Migration: 2005 Births, deaths and natural change: UK countries, Figure 5.6 Age-specific fertility rates: females, 1938 to 2004 Age-specific fertility rates: males, 1964 to 2004 England and Wales 1901 to 2004 Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Source: Chapter 5: Fertility and mortality Focus on People and Migration: 2005 Births, deaths and natural change: UK countries, 1901 to 2004 Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Source: Chapter 5: Fertility and mortality Focus on People and Migration: 2005 Births, deaths and natural change: UK countries, Figure 5.8 Standardised mean age at birth: by sex, 1964 to 2004 England and Wales
Source: Chapter 5: Fertility and mortality Focus on People and Migration: 2005 Births, deaths and natural change: UK countries,
Figure 5.14 Births occurring outside marriage: 1845 to 2004 England and Wales
The important indicators here are the initial increase in the fertility rate, the large decrease in the fertility rate from 1965 to 1977, the drop in the fertility rate making it impossible to replace the population and the subsequent economic effects of this population shortfall, and the welfare effects of this population shortfall.
Housing and Construction:
The last great social housing by local authorities was created between 1953 to 1954.
Private house construction had been increasing from the end of WWII and by 1960 was outnumbering the local authority and housing associations permanent dwellings completed per year.
From 1946 to 1970 the New Towns programme tried to overcome the housing shortage post WWII.
Post 1970 no new towns were designated until ‘Eco Towns’ were considered in 2007.
New roads, Transport Interchanges, Shopping Centres, Supermarkets, Hypermarkets, Schools, Colleges, Health Care buildings and light industrial estates were constructed in Britain to support these new towns.
The idea of the 'Gentrification' of Britain, the re-use of the existing historical housing, the growth of the conservation areas also added to the re-valuation of the housing stock and the creation of a social status in re-using the past forms of class, rated housing to get instant social, gentry, genus, name, tribal, status.
In 1961 the Parker Morris Committees report 'Homes for today and Tomorrow.' set out house standards for the nation.
In 1965 the First National Building Regulations for England and Wales were created.
In 1968 despite these changes and the large house building programme of the mid 1950’s the housing charity ‘shelter’ reported that 3,000,000 people were in need of re-housing due to poor living conditions.
Source: ONSTable 241 House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure United Kingdom historical calendar year series
Source: New Towns Act 1946
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_towns_in_the_United_Kingdom
The important indicators are that that the 1950 to 1970 generation was moving through renting property and towards private house ownership as a goal in life, that the housing stock was moving through from local authority to private enterprise, that the public had a new desire for instant status through historic property ownership, that the nature of urbanization in Britain; that controlled the density of the population in the country; was changing, that the standards of housing were being reviewed across the nation, that despite all of the efforts the UK still could not house 3,000,000 of its population in decent housing.
Energy:
In 1965 the last deep coal mine closed.
In 1966 the prototype fast breeder nuclear reactors went online.
In 1967 the coal mining in the Black Country was discontinued.
In 1971 Oil overtook coal as the most consumed fuel in Britain for the first time.
In 1973 the coalmining in the Somerset coalfield was discontinued.
In 1973, 1974, 1976, 1979 there were oil supply crisis due to wars in the Middle East.
In 1973 and 1974 the energy crisis led to a three day working week and power cuts to save energy.
In 1974 Speed limits on roads were reduced to save fuel during the oil crisis.
In 1977 to try and alleviate the energy crisis the Selby Coalfield was opened.
In 1980 Britain became self-sufficient in oil from the North Sea oil fields.
Source: Wikipedia.
The important indicators here are a reliance on limited, largely fossil fuel, energy source that led to control of the economy, timescale, working lives and prosperity of the population of the country being controlled by external political situations.
Transport:
From 1960 to 1980 Britain’s motorway network expanded, the railway system contracted and switched from steam to electric passenger train services began, the first cross channel hovercraft service was initiated, bridges such as the Tay and Fourth road bridges were opened, tunnels such as the Dartford tunnel were opened, sailing trade carrying craft were withdrawn from service in favour of transport by road.
In 1963 Britain began to dismantle its transport system through the recommendations of the ‘The Beeching Report’
The publication of 'Traffic in Towns' also proposed changes to transport to allow for the predicted increase in personal and company vehicle traffic.
From 1969 to 2003 Britain operated supersonic passenger transport flights.
From 1960 to 1980 Britain had constructed approx. only two new airports, but it had upgraded many of them since WWI
Source: Wikipedia
The decade is the advancement of the road, rail, sea, air transport network in and out of Britain.
The important indicator here is constant refinement of transport from 1960 to 1980.
Education:
In 1963 The Robbins report was published expressing the need for the expansion of higher education facilities and access to higher education for anyone who qualified for it.
In 1965 Britain converted to a Comprehensive school system and introduced Certificates of Secondary Education.
In 1967 the school system changed to a three tier system of education from age 5 to age 13.
In 1971 the BBC initiated Open University Broadcasts.
In 1972 the school leaving age was increased to 16.
In 1973 the British Library was established.
In 1977 ‘O’ level and ‘CSE’ exams were replaced by a single examination.
Source: Wikipedia
The important indicator here is the expansion of education for all of the population from 1960 to 1980.
Health:
In 1961 Birth control pills become available on the NHS.
In 1964 Brook Advisory Centres opened up offering teenage contraception and sexual health advice.
In 1965 there is a correlation between the decrease in live birth rate and the increased use of the birth control pill.
In 1967 The Abortion Act was passed, the first heart transplants occurred , the first prescription charges were made, local health authorities were allowed to offer contraceptive services to unmarried people if they so wished.
In 1970 the use of the oral contraceptive Pill was at its highest level.
In the mid 1970’s the use of the oral contraceptive Pill reduced.
In the early 1980’s the use of the oral contraceptive Pill reduced further and has never reached the original levels.
From 1976 to 1998 conception rates for teenage women did not change.
From 1976 to 1998 conception rates for women aged 20–24, fell.
From 1976 to 1998 conception rates for women aged 30–34 increased.
In 1973 the National Health Service re-organization act made contraception available free of charge to everyone including single people and those aged under 16.
In 1976 69% of live births were to women in their twenties.
In 1976 20% of live births were to women in their thirties.
In 1976 terminations of pregnancy accounted for 16 % of all conceptions.
Only 1% of girls born in 1931 had first intercourse before age 16, rising to 5% for those born in the 1950s, and continuing to increase, reaching 24% for women born in 1974.
Source: Wikipedia
Source: http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/thenhs/nhshistory/Pages/NHShistory1960s.aspx
Source: ONS Trends in fertility and contraception in the last quarter of the 20th century Bev Botting and Karen Dunnell Demography and Health National Statistics
The important indicators here are the availability of Birth control pills on the NHS in 1961, the ability of the population to get sexual health advice from 1964, the decrease in live birth rate directly due to the increased use of the birth control pill in 1965 and the highest use of the contraceptive pill being in 1970 before reducing by the mid 1970’s.
Economic:
In 1960 the decade begins with a gradual establishing of a British economy without the empire or the commonwealth or the dominions
In 1964 the average weekly wage is £16 (approx. £852 / year).
In 1966 the first credit cards were introduced.
In 1971 Decimalization of the currency occurred.
In 1971 Unemployment reached a post WW2 high of 815,000.
In 1972 Unemployment reached 1,000,000 for the first time since the 1930's.
In 1972 Price and pay freezes were enforced to counter inflation.
In 1972 the first access credit cards were introduced.
In 1973 Britain gained entry into the European Economic Community.
In 1973 in response to EEC entry British share values fell by £4,000,000,000 in one day.
In 1973 Value Added Tax came into effect.
In 1974 the first McDonalds opened, adding consumer high street food to the British diet.
From 1974 to 1977 prices of consumer items increased by up to 70%, caused by inflation, a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services.
In 1974 the finance Act abolishes the collection of tithes, a tenth part of income for the support of the church and clergy.
In 1975 the unemployment level reached 1,250,000.
In 1975 Britain entered a double-dip recession as the economy contracted.
From 1975 to the present time the government sold off nationalized industries in Britain.
In 1979 the government made £7,500,000,000 of public spending cuts.
In 1979 the government passed the Housing Bill which gave council house tenants the right to buy their homes.
From 1979 to the present 2,000,000,000 council homes were sold under the right to buy legislation.
In 1980 unemployment rose from 1,500,000 to 2,000,000.
In 1980 Britain entered a recession. Gross domestic product, investment spending, capacity utilization, household income, business profits, and inflation fell, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rose.
Source: Wikipedia
The important indicators are the economic isolation of Britain post empire, the restructuring of the empire economy from major import-minor export to private enterprise major export-minor import, the entry into the larger local European trading market, the loss of identity through the loss of sovereign currency, weights and measures for a new decimalized European form, the accelerating unemployment over 10 years from 1970 to 1980 rising to 2.5 times post WWll levels, the breaking up of old heavy industry skills and the reforming of new low manual, high service skill companies, national recession resulting from the economic restructuring and the 1979 Housing Bill to give council house tenants the right to buy their homes.
Political:
The 1960 decade begins with the admission by the British Government that there is an increasing need from the empire, dominions and commonwealth countries for independence. This is the ‘Winds of Change’ speech identifying a growing ‘national consciousness.’
From 1960 Great Britain acknowledged it was actually Britain and then just the United Kingdom as a group of islands.
The original German name of the Victorian age Royal family, Saxe Coburg Gotha, had been revised, by Royal Proclamation, to Windsor, post 1917, to sever links with the wartime enemy Germany. This was maintained up to 1960. In 1960 Mountbatten-Windsor then became the personal surname of some of the descendants of Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh under an Order in Council issued in 1960. This provided Britain with its own clear Royal line identity.
From 1960 – 1963 There is a pay pause in wage increases imposed by the government, Britain applies for membership of the EEC, CND rally’s occur, The Commonwealth Immigrants Act is passed controlling immigration into UK, race riots occur, anti-nazi riots occur, the welsh language society is formed, the first woman is appointed as a County Court Judge, nuclear armament increases, CND marches occur, The Profumo Affair destabilizes the government and political belief, the Philby, Burgess, and Maclean spy ring is exposed and the security of the country is questioned, the Water Resources Act is passed regulating water abstraction and economic growth reaches a post war high.
In 1964 there are power disputes, power cuts.
In 1964 the death penalty is abolished.
In 1965 the first female High Court Judge, Family Division is appointed.
In 1965 the Race Relations Act, Redundancy Acts and the Rent Act are passed.
In 1966 There were further strikes, the race relations act was enforced, there were 6 month wage freezes, employment taxes, and unemployment continued rising.
In 1967 the government instigated the ‘I'm backing Britain campaign’ to encourage the population to work without pay to assist the economy.
In 1970 the age of majority was reduced to 18.
In 1970 the dock workers went on strike.
In 1971 The Divorce Reform Act came into effect. The number of divorces exceeded 100,000 for the first time.
In 1971 the postal workers went on strike.
In 1972 the coal miners went on strike causing a state of emergency was declared.
In 1972 the marriage rates peaked.
In 1973 the rail workers, the civil servants and mass workers went on strike.
In 1974 the Prevention of Terrorism Act was passed.
In 1975 the Sex Discrimination Act and the Equal Pay Act came into force.
In 1975 Jackie Tabick became the first female rabbi in Britain.
In 1977 the National Front marchers clashed with anti-Nazi protesters in London.
In 1977 the undertakers went on strike and the firefighters went on strike.
In 1978 the bakers went on strike causing bread rationing.
In 1979 the lorry drivers went on strike and then the public workers went on strike causing shortages of heating oil and fresh food and the ‘Winter of discontent’.
In 1979 Britain appointed its first woman Prime Minister.
In 1980 the steelworkers went on strike.
Source: Wikipedia
The important indicators are the growing ‘national consciousness.’ of all countries post WWll, Great Britain acknowledging it was actually Britain and then just the United Kingdom as a group of islands and then part of the EEC as a trading country, the change of the Royal line Name to establish it as a British monarchy, the loss of belief in our political leaders morality, the loss of belief in the security of the country, the acceptance of Britain’s original and ongoing history as a multi-racial community, the acceptance of equal rights within a feudalist state and nation, the acceptance of workers’ rights, the re-direction of the state population away from nationalism and socialism, the re-formation of a new Britain by the state hierarchy.
Media:
From 1960 the age of social realism media in Britain begins. Britain begins to examine and invite criticism of itself through the media.
In 1964 Youth Culture TV programmes increase
In 1964 'The Sun' newspaper begins circulation and becomes the most popular newspaper in Britain
Source: Audit Bureau of Circulations.
In 1964 Gay and Lesbian relationships are aired in the media.
In 1964 90% of British households own a TV.
In 1965 the release of the film 'War Game' is prevented from being broadcast by the government re-establishing overall government control over the media.
In 1965 expletives are allowed on TV.
In 1965 the National Viewers and Listeners Association founded by Mary Whitehouse begins a 'Clean Up TV Campaign'.
In 1966 Time magazine coins the phrase ‘Swinging London’.
In 1966 absurdist, existentialist, tragicomedies are popular broadcasts in Britain.
In 1966 Britain’s homelessness and social issues regarding family life are broadcast.
In 1967 theatre censorship is removed.
In 1975 the Punk Rock band ‘The Sex Pistols’ give their first public performance.
In 1977 ‘The Damned’ release the first ever Punk rock single ‘New Rose’.
In 1977 the aspirations and tastes of the new middle class are satirized in the media.
Source: Wikipedia
The important indicators are, the intense examination of the nature of what Britain was post WWII, the astonishment in Britain’s inability to solve any of its complexities is expressed in social realist satires, there is then broadcasting of the existentialist, humanist, post religious, post hierarchy beliefs of the population, there is an initial freedom of expression and reduced control of media-arts then a control over the media-arts by the state, there is a dialogue with the population to try and establish a new Britain.
Life Span:
The most common age at death in England and Wales in 2010 was 85 for men and 89 for women.
Over the last 50 years (1960-2010) the average life span has increased by around 10 years for a man and 8 years for a woman.
Source: ONS
The important indicator is the increase in the lifespan for men and women.
Leisure:
The amount of working hours has been reduced in Britain since 1784.
In 1973 Britain gained entry into the European Economic Community.
In 1975 the EEC recommended a 40 hour maximum working week and a 4 weeks paid holiday.
Post 1975 a 48 hour maximum working week has been generally applied.
The important indicator is increased leisure time for men and women.
Needs:
A reduction in subsistence agriculture had occurred in Britain at the time of the industrial revolution 1750.
From 1960 to 1970 Britain was 60%-70% self-sufficient in produce.
This allowed for approx. 8 months food supply for the population.
Sources http://www.ukagriculture.com/countryside/countryside_history_11000bc.cfm History of countryside and agriculture Office of National Statistics. Defra (2006) Food Security and the UK: An Evidence an Analysis Paper.
The important indicator is that Britain was still able to feed itself.
The agriculture was however increasingly dependent on fossil fuels, oil, and petrochemical produced fertilizers and insecticides.
The agriculture was also having to serve an increasingly urban population.
Environmental:
In 1962 severe smog was still causing deaths in Britain.
Between 1962 – 1963 Britain suffered the coldest winter for hundreds of years. The temperatures fell as low as −16 deg C (3.2 deg F).
In 1967 Britain suffered a heat wave and also flooding in south east England.
In 1968 Britain was suffering extensive flooding and hurricane force winds.
In 1975 High rainfall in Britain of 169mm in 166 min occurred.
From 1976 to 1977 Britain suffered hurricane force winds, high temperatures, and a two year drought.
In 1978 Britain suffered sea storms and severe blizzards.
The important indicator is the climate - geography of Britain.
The British Isles is fragmented into 6,289 offshore, inshore inlands including 137 inhabited islands.
It has extreme environment that can have an immediate reversing effect on the nature of the whole state.
Conclusions
To answer the first question.
Did this transition actually take place in Britain?
Yes. There is evidence of a demographic transition.
First there is post WWII Britain reduced to a pre-industrial level, then there is the 1950’s rebuilding but as an austerity rationed Britain, then there is the post rationing Britain into the 1960’s leading to consumerism in the 1970’s and speculation in the 1980’s.
To answer the second question.
What may have been the causes of this transition?
The 1976-77 transition is a deliberate, state induced, period of demographic transition from a pre-industrial level to a developed state to allow future generations in Britain to be created and survive.
The methods of demographic transition through population control used between 1960 and 1980 can also be summarized for future use.
Project the population data from the last census to establish future population levels based on the current birth rate and death rate.
If the future population rate is projected as maintaining the same level of birth to death increase, and the population level and density are stagnating then the state can remain unchanged.
If the future population rate is projected as low then this indicates that the current birth rate is below the death rate. This indicates that the population have few health problems, high life expectancy, high living standards, high social status, and high educational status. The population is not replacing itself and so not assuring future stability.
If the future population rate is projected as high then the converse of this pattern is true. The population is
replacing itself but at the cost of future stability.
In this situation the government instigates a population control measure to get back to a stagnant population level, a stagnant population density and a demographic transition such as the one indicated in 1976 – 1977.
The population control measure uses the following methods.
Development of a birth control product or series of products, deliberately in this case one directed at the female population, the contraceptive pill.
Incentivize the population by informing them that the birth control pill gives them freedom of choice.
Issue the pill to the population through government controls into the state operated, welfare financed health organizations. This ensures the population control the effectiveness of the pill by their own payments, via. Tax into the welfare system.
Add tax- welfare incentives to the population that will reduce the fertility rate, increase education, increase racial and personal freedoms, ensure equal opportunities to apply these freedoms, vary employment, encourage private enterprise, discourage nationalization, vary the media-arts to allow more expression and self-examination, encourage criticism, allow all forms of linguistic and artistic expression, link society to culture to appreciations of beauty, to qualities, to values and to needs, alter the laws that prohibit changes to the society, culture, appreciations of beauty, qualities, values and needs, allow the freedom of the individual, discourage the fixed form of life, encourage land and property ownership and lastly when the new society begins to indicate itself through the media begin to re-impose the influence and will of the state hierarchy onto the population to bake the social changes and stagnate the population levels.
To answer the third question.
What lasting effects did it have?
Britain retained and re-enforced the sovereign as head of state by establishing the Mountbatten-Windsor personal surname.
Britain had been recovering from the effects of WWI up until the economic depression of the 1920’s and 1930’s. It then returned to a pre-industrial level. It then moved to a developing nation through re-arming for WWII. Post WWII it returned to a pre-industrial state.
The problem of the governments post WWII was to develop a new, isolationist, Britain and then to evolve it into a developing country to compete against the world for dwindling resources, energy and environment.
Conclusion
Every developed country only remains a developed country as long as one generation survives the environment, works, raises families, takes leisure, contributes all wages savings and possessions into a multiple speed money tax system, retires and dies before the next working generation has come to a working, taxable age.
This theory; based on the Demographic Transition theory of American Demographer Warren Thompson; can be added to in our own increased population, depletion age by, the need for a generation to survive climate change environment, recycle existing resources, energy and environment, develop new energy and new resource solutions before the next working generation has come to a working, taxable age.
Failure to do this will reduce a dense population, depletion age, developed country to a pre-industrial one and then to a hunter gatherer level.
Ian K Whittaker
My websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
10/10/2014
14/10/2020
4521 words over 9 pages