The Human Save the Planet Conceit
This essay proposes that a conceit; notion; has been formed amongst human beings.
The Nature of the Conceit.
The nature of the conceit; notion; is that humans state that in order to save themselves they must first save the planet Earth. The essay proposes that this is a conceit. It further proposes that humans must replace this conceit with the view that they must survive long enough on a naturally changing Earth to extract as much environment, resources and energy as they need to allow them to leave the Earth and colonize other planets.
Humans must realize that they must deplete the Earth in order to survive.
Definitions.
In relation to this essay ‘Conceit’ is a ‘notion’.
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/search
The Age and Future of the Earth.
The Earth was formed 4,540,000,000 years ago.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth
The Earth existed for 4,540,000,000 - 2,800,000, 4,537,200,000 years before its generative, convergent, divergent, interactive, evolutionary processes evolved human beings as a component of its ecosystem.
The Earth is halfway through its lifespan. It; as an ecosystem including humans; will be destroyed when its star expands and dies in approximately 4,500,000,000 years.
Humans; as a component of the Earths ecosystem; must use the Earth’s environment, resources and energy to develop technology to leave the Earth and colonize other planets to survive the destruction of the Earth.
Humans are a component of the Earth.
The Earth is halfway through its lifespan. It will be destroyed as its star expands and dies in approximately 4,500,000,000 years.
Humans must evolve to leave the Earth to survive.
The Age and Future of Humans.
Humans have only existed on the Earth since 2,800,000 years ago.
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_human_evolution#Hominidae
Australopithecines (Bipeds) only appeared 3,000,000 years ago. Homo Habilis only appeared 2,800,000 years ago. Humans have existed as a clearly separated species on Earth since 2,800,000 years ago.
Humans had no involvement in the creation of the Earth or in 540,000,000 - 2,800,000, 4,537,200,000 years of its evolution.
Humans currently only have a limited model of the evolution and operation of the Earth.
Even if humans could manipulate the Earth they could not alter its fate.
Humans must evolve to leave the Earth to survive.
The Climate of the Earth.
The climate of the Earth is formed externally by energy from its star; the Sun, the Earth’s atmosphere, the axial tilt of the Earth, the orbit of the Earth, the Moon and the Earth Moon distance.
The Suns energy output has varied during history.
The Suns brightness has varied during history.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_maximum
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_minimum
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance
The axial tilt of the Earth has varied though history.
The orbit of the Earth has varied through history.
The Earth - Moon distance has varied through history.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_orbit
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_the_Moon
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_distance_(astronomy)
Within the atmosphere of the Earth some of the energy from the Sun is absorbed and some is reflected by clouds. The remaining solar energy heats the surface of the Earth; land, water and ice; although a tiny fraction is reflected. The surface of the Earth then loses its heat by rising air currents, radiation and the evaporation of water. Some of this heat passes through the atmosphere and out into space. Some of the heat is absorbed by greenhouse gases like Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Water vapour and Ozone. The atmosphere re-emits the absorbed heat. Some escapes into space. Some heats the surface of the Earth again. Eventually all of the heat escapes into space.
Source: Video: How does the climate system work? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrPS2HiYVp8
The climate system of the Earth is driven by 2 things.
The way energy from the sun moves in and out of the atmosphere.
The way heat moves around the atmosphere and the oceans.
The axial tilt of the Earth causes the energy from the Sun to vary at different latitudes and at different seasons on the surface of the Earth. Generally there is more heat nearer the equator than there is at the poles. To balance this inequality the climate system moves the heat from the equator to the poles through the atmosphere and the oceans. In the tropics near the equator thunder clouds develop forcing warm air to rise and then drift towards the poles at high levels. Cooler air flows in the opposite direction at the surface of the Earth. The hot and cool air set up cells all over the atmosphere of the Earth. At the boundary between these cells air is either rising from the surface or falling down towards it. Where the air is rising you get low pressure. Often accompanied with high precipitation. Where the air is falling you get high pressure. Often accompanied low precipitation. The oceans create currents by changes in temperature and salinity. Heat moves around the oceans through currents. These are called streams. Cold water is moved to the lower level of the oceans and hotter water rises to the surface of the oceans. These streams move heat to the continents of the Earth and form climates.
Source: Video: How does the climate system work? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrPS2HiYVp8 3.51
The Earth is capable of increasing and decreasing in temperature as an ecosystem over geological time periods.
The Temperature of the Earth.
In geological time the Earth has varied in temperature from +230 deg C above current temperatures in the Hadean Geological Period 4,537,200,000 years ago to an average of 16.32 deg C for land and ocean temperatures in 2017
Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201706
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_water_on_Earth#Water_in_the_development_of_Earth
‘Despite the overall increase, global temperatures have not climbed steadily during the decades. The average global annual temperature hovered around 13.7 °C (56.7 °F) from the 1880s through the 1910s.
During the 1920s to 1940s, temperatures climbed about 0.1 °C (0.18 °F) each decade. Mean global temperatures then stabilized at roughly 14.0°C (57.2 °F) until the 1980s.
The world has mainly grown hotter since 1980, at a rate of nearly 0.2 °C (0.36 °F) per decade. The annual global temperature from 2000 to 2009 was 0.61 °C (1.1 °F) higher than the average temperature for 1951 to 1980. If the current rate of increase continues, the world will warm by 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the next century.’
Source: https://www.currentresults.com/Environment-Facts/changes-in-earth-temperature.php Annual Average Temperature History for Earth - Current Results
Recent measurements indicate the temperature of the Earth is still varying.
Human Temperature Control
Humans know that their bodies have an average operating temperature of 36.5–37.5 °C.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_temperature
Humans know that they can only survive in a certain temperature range that allows their core body temperature to be maintained.
Above 40 deg C human life is threatened.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_temperature#Hypothermia
Below 35 deg C human life is threatened.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothermia
Humans are not primarily concerned with the average temperature of the total Earth. They are concerned only with the local temperature at their relative locations on the Earth to allow survival. They have developed technology to control this temperature to allow their survival even when the Earth temperature varies.
Human primary concern is for their own survival not the survival of the planet they live on.
The Earth has changed in temperature as an ecosystem over geological time periods.
Current temperature changes threaten human existence within 100 year time.
Human Influence over the Temperature of the Earth.
Humans have had no control over the Sun, Earth orbit, Earth tilt, Earth temperature for 4,540,000,000 - 2,800,000, 4,537,200,000 years.
Humans have had control over their own temperature on the Earth for only 2,800,000 years.
Humans have only limited control over the future temperature of the Earth through their use of fossil fuels These produced greenhouse gases. These add to the ability of the Earth to trap more heat energy coming from the Sun. This trapped heat energy increases the average land and ocean temperature of the Earth.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_human induced_climate_change,_1896
Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf. P15
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41778089
Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/wmo-says-greenhouse-gases-at-highest-level/4092201.html
Humans have had a forcing effect on the natural climate systems of the Earth through their use of fossil fuels since the 1950’s. 1950 / 2,800,000. For 0.07% of their total existence on Earth as an independent species.
Humans Phasing out Fossil Fuels.
If humans; as seems likely; decide to move away from fossil fuels to produce energy they must develop sufficient renewable energy sources to replace existing energy demand and then add additional renewable energy to exceed energy demand to allow for increased human populations.
In the short term to construct renewable energy technology will require the use of fossil fuels.
This is due to the Laws of thermodynamics. Higher energy sources are needed to get less energy back.
This continuing fossil fuel energy policy must be balanced against the effect of using fossil fuels will have on the climate and human survival.
If Humans can evolve renewable energy sources to a fusion level; five times that of the carbon; they will have a chance of leaving the Earth and colonizing other planets to survive.
The current status of the ITER; International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor; Latin for "the way"; is planned to achieve its first plasma by 2025 and be carrying out full deuterium–tritium fusion experiments starting in 2035.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Timeline_and_current_status
Humans are constrained by the laws of Thermodynamics.
They must balance their use of fossil fuel use against the climate change it will cause to survive.
Humans must develop fusion energy to survive on Earth and to leave Earth to colonize other planets.
Humans are also constrained by the gradual heating of the atmosphere of the Earth to achieving this goal within the next 100 years or face catastrophic climate change that could threaten human survival.
In order to achieve fusion energy Humans must use more environment, energy and resources in the short term.
Humans must deplete the Earth to survive and move off it.
The Limited Resources of the Earth
Humans rely on minerals to survive and develop new technology.
The minerals of the Earth are a limited resource.
Current extraction, production and consumption of minerals indicate the following key time periods.
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-225---status-of-the-mineral-resources-of-the-earth-2017
The initial depletion of silver in 2017 and then gold in 2033 will change the world financial economy radically and switch it over to renewable resources of both minerals.
Copper; as smelting copper, refined copper or ore; depletes in 2046, 2059 and 2064.
The depletion of silver, gold and copper resources between 2017 and 2064 will make the creation of electrical systems; including renewables; more difficult.
The phasing out of fossil fuels from 2050 to 2100 will remove all of the potential mineral mining ability.
The peak year of crude petroleum comes just after the initial copper peak year in 2038 and just before the copper ore depletion year in 2064. So mining more minerals after this date becomes more difficult.
The depletion of the oil industry initially allows the phase out of fossil fuels to assist in the reduction in output of greenhouse gases and in slowing down global warming. There is also an economic effect in that the reduction in petroleum use removes some 6,000 products and their manufacture from the global consumerist economy. Petroleum products also include anaesthetics and medicines and so new forms of these will be needed after the year 2038.
The end of natural gas reserves between 2041 and 2067 and the end of coal reserves between 2070 and 2125 add to the problems of energy provision for the Earth.
By the year 2100 all fossil fuels will be phased out.
Based on 2017 energy use data from the CIA World fact book 2017 the phasing out of fossil fuels amounts to a loss of total installed electrical generating capacity of some 64.2% globally.
Post the year 2125 the extraction of minerals at current levels therefore becomes almost impossible.
Mineral extraction amounts to 92% of total global waste.
Source: http://bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/worldstatistics.html
The current global total of mineral waste is 19,965,729,588 tonnes. Approx. 20,000,000,000 tonnes.
Once mineral extraction ceases this would become the total available mineral resource for the whole Earth to be recycled until it to runs out.
The amount recycled currently can be considered to be 0% since the mineral resource has been extracted and formed into products.
Recycling of minerals and metals is taking place but; in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics; more energy and so more material, is always put in than is retrieved. Eventually even the valuable mineral recycling resources will run out.
The data indicates Humans face an environmental, energy and resource paradox within this century.
The nature of human existence on Earth from 2017 onwards from the data necessarily involves less environmental use, less energy use and less resource use to allow human society to survive.
However in order for Human society to survive the loss of mineral extraction to develop technology to allow them to achieve fusion energy levels also indicates that humans must deplete all available resources in order to develop technology to leave the Earth and colonize other planets.
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/Article 225 Status of the Mineral Resources of the Earth 2017
The Current ability to Monitor, record and Model the Climate.
To solve the environment, resource and energy paradox human need to understand, monitor, record and model the climate of the Earth to make predictions about the future state of the Earth and their influence over it.
Human climate monitoring and recording is however only a recent science.
Monitoring and recoding the climate has occurred since 3000BC.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_meteorology
Instrumental record of temperature has occurred since 1659.
Source: www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/climatechange/2009/03/since_records_began_a_brief_gu.html
Dendrochronology records have been collated since 1859.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology#History
Carbon Dioxide records have been taken since 1896.
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_human-induced_climate_change,_1896
Ice core sampling records have been taken since the 1950’s.
Source: www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-cores/ice-core-basics/
Satellite weather observation have only been made since 1960.
Source: noaasis.noaa.gov/NOAASIS/ml/40yearsa.html
Deep seabed core sampling has only been made since 1960.
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_human-induced_climate_change
Total solar irradiance (TSI); the amount of solar radiative energy incident on the Earth's upper atmosphere; has only been recorded; via satellite; since 1978.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
Humans were not actually concerned with the climate of the total Earth for 2,800,000 – 3000, 2,797,000 years. They have only become concerned about the climate of the Earth for the last 3000 + 2018, approx. 5,000 years.
Humans were not actually able to model the climate of the total Earth or predict it for 2,800,000 – 1970, 2,798,030 years.
This recent knowledge is the basis for the development of the 'conceit' that humans need to 'save the planet' to allow their own survival.
In the past the Carbon Dioxide; CO2; levels of the Earth were much higher than they are currently in 2017/2018.
The current; 2017;CO2 ppm is at 406 to 407 ppm.
In the Silurian Era 443.8–419.2 mya CO2 ppm was at 4500 ppm.
In the Cambrian Era 541–485.4 mya CO2 ppm was at 4500 ppm.
In the Paleogene Era 66–23.03 mya CO2 ppm was at 500 ppm.
Humans did not exist as a species at the time the high CO2 concentrations occurred in the atmosphere of the Earth.
Since 1958 meteorological records indicate that CO2 levels have been generally increasing from 315 ppm to 407ppm currently.
Since the 1970’s human use of fossil fuels has been identified as forcing up CO2 levels in the atmosphere at increased concentrations.
Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf. P15
This human forcing up of CO2 levels has; in combination with natural processes; forced CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere up to their highest level for 800,000 years.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41778089
Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/wmo-says-greenhouse-gases-at-highest-level/4092201.html
The Earth is apparently capable of existing and containing life and non-life forms with massively increased greenhouse gas concentrations in its atmosphere.
It is also an ecosystem capable of reducing greenhouse gas levels.
Humans however cannot exist in massively increased greenhouse gas concentrations.
Humans are apparently causing the higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations through their use of fossil fuels.
This raises again the environmental, energy and resource paradox within this century previously mentioned.
Humans need to develop accurate predictive climate models and link these to their environment, energy and resource use on the Earth to ensure that they obtain the maximum duration on the Earth to deplete all available environment, resources and energy to develop technology to leave the planet and live off Earth.
This must also be achieved before humans can no longer use fossil fuels to develop mineral resources because their effect on the climate reduces the ability for humans to survive.
This must be carried out before fossil fuels are exhausted to allow humans to create new energy technology to allow them to leave the Earth.
This must be achieved before the Earth reaches the end of its lifespan.
Communication of Human Influence over the Temperature of the Earth.
Humans eventually communicated their knowledge of the climate of the Earth and their influence on it.
In July 1979 the United States National Research Council published a report,[52] concluding (in part):
'When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modelling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes.… we have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible proportions or reverse them altogether.'
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_human induced_climate_change,_1896
The IPCC First Assessment Report. The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was not completed until 1990. It served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report
Humans communicated the issues regarding human forcing of the temperature of the Earth by the use of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases only 2,800,000 – 1979, 2,798,021 years after humans had evolved on Earth.
Humans have set out targets into the future for the limiting of fossil fuels, the phasing out of fossil fuels and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. These measures were not agreed globally until 2015.
2,800,000 – 2015, 2,797,985 years after humans had evolved on Earth.
Humans will not act fully on the measures agreed in 2015 until the end of the century 2100.
2,800,000 – 2100, 2,797,900 years after humans had evolved on Earth.
Humans primary concern during the greater part of their evolution has been their own survival not the survival of the Earth.
They now have no choice but to change this conceit into a timescale to allow them to leave the Earth and colonize other planets.
Humans Population Increase and the Necessary Depletion of Resources.
If climate change; forced by human emissions of greenhouse gases; is ignored as an issue and the use of resources is considered relating to an increasing human population it can be established that humans will be using up the limited resources of the Earth at an increasing rate up to the end of the century and beyond the year 2100.
Humans will be depleting the Earth merely by existing and increasing in population numbers so the human ‘conceit’ for ‘saving the planet’ is proven even without the global warming issue.
Conclusion
The nature of the conceit; notion; that humans state that they are trying to save the planet when they are actually trying to preserve their own existence on the planet is proven.
They now have no choice but to change this conceit into a timescale to allow them to leave the Earth and colonize other planets.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
02/02/2018
14/10/2020
3258 words over 7 pages