Architectural Change. Linear to Circular Economy in the UK
Theory
This essay proposes that the incentive Architecture of the UK must change from a 'linear' to a ‘circular‘ economy with a population incentive based around communications to survive in a world of climate, environment, resource, and energy depletion with an ever increasing population.
Definitions
In the scope of this essay the following definitions apply.
Linear Economy
‘Linear "take, make, dispose" industrial processes and the lifestyles that feed on them deplete finite reserves to create products that end up in landfills or in incinerators.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_from_the_linear_model
Circular Economy
‘A circular economy is a regenerative system in which resource input and waste, emission, and energy leakage are minimised by slowing, closing, and narrowing material and energy loops. This can be achieved through long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and recycling. This is in contrast to a linear economy which is a 'take, make, dispose' model of production.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_from_the_linear_model
Method
This essay first establishes a demographic of Britain in 2017 in terms of Population, Gender, Age Groups, Number of Households, Age of Property in UK, People per House, Number of Homeless or in Inadequate Housing, Number of Empty or Derelict Properties, Number of Employed People, Number of Unemployed People, Number of Unemployed People Below Employment Age, Number of Unemployed People Above Employment Age, Number of Unemployed People Below or Above Employment Age in UK, Average Household Spend per Week in UK, Top Wages in UK, Average Wages in UK, Lowest Wages in UK, Welfare and Pensions.
From this demographic it provides a description for the current status of the linear economy.
Conclusions are then made.
Population
The UK Population in 2017 is 65,511,098
Source: www.UKometers.info/UK-population/uk-population/
The UK Population by 2050 is projected to be 77,000,000
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/uk-population-to-hit-70-million-ons-in-less-than-a-decade
The UK Population by 2100 is projected to be 91,227,569
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary
The increase in population between 2017 and 2050 is 18% approx. 11,488,902 people.
The increase in population between 2050 and 2100 is 18.5% approx. 14,227,569 people.
Gender
31,000,000 are male.
32,000,000 are female.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom 2011Census
Age Groups
Largest Age Groups.
Age 40–44, 4,626,000, 7.3% of total population.
Age 45–49, 4,643,000, 7.3% of total population.
Smallest Age Group.
Age 90+, 476,000, 0.8% of total population.
Source: 2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group and sex, local authorities in the United Kingdom, ons.gov.uk Accessed 23 December 2012
Number of Households
27,000,000.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/.../families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2015-11-05
Age of Property in UK
The largest number of new houses were constructed in the year 1968.
Source: Table 241 House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure United Kingdom historical calendar year series.
60% of UK houses were built before 1960.
10% were built between 1991-2010.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_the_United_Kingdom
People per House
35% of the 27,000,000 households were 2 person households.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/.../families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2015-11-05
Number of Homeless or People in Inadequate Housing
There are an estimated 307,000 people sleeping rough or living in inadequate housing.
Source: Shelter.org.uk
Number of Empty or Derelict Properties.
‘Analysis of Government figures shows that there are more than 1,000,000 additional homes above those required for households in the UK.
This "housing surplus" has nearly doubled from 800,000 spare homes in 1996 to 1.4million homes at any one time in 2014. These “empty homes” are typically second homes, or vacant properties which are either left empty or are awaiting for tenants or home owners to move in.’
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/03/number-empty-homes-hits-highest-rate-20-years-calling-question/
Number of Employed People
There were 32,060,000 people in work.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Number of Unemployed People
There were 1,420,000 unemployed people.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2017
Number of Unemployed People Below Employment Age
Allowing for minimum school leaving age of 16.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/know-when-you-can-leave-school
15,098,000 people
Source: 2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group and sex, local authorities in the United Kingdom, ons.gov.uk Accessed 23 December 2012
Number of Unemployed People Above Employment Age
Allowing for minimum state pension age of 65. (63 for women)
Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/state-pension-age-workers-people-extra-year-68-increase-retirement-age-david-gauke-a7849091.html
10,376,000 people.
Source: 2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group and sex, local authorities in the United Kingdom, ons.gov.uk Accessed 23 December 2012
Number of Unemployed People Below or Above Employment Age in UK
25,474,000 people.
Average Household Spend per Week in UK
Allowing for average weekly household spending of £528.90 in the financial year ending 2016.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/expenditure/bulletins/familyspendingintheuk/financialyearendingmarch2016
Top Wages in UK
£7.50 per hour.
Source: http://www.minimum-wage.co.uk/ 2017
Allowing for a 5-day week a working person must receive at least 28 days’ paid annual leave per year.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights
Allow for 365 paid working days a year.
Allow for 8 hours a day.
Allows for 2920 hours per year work at £7.50 per hour.
£21,900 per year. £421 per week.
Average Wages in UK
£5.60 per hour.
Source: http://www.minimum-wage.co.uk/ 2017
Allowing for a 5-day week a working person must receive at least 28 days’ paid annual leave per year.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights
Allow for 365 paid working days a year.
Allow for 8 hours a day.
Allows for 2920 hours per year work at £5.60 per hour.
£16,352 per year. £314.46 per week.
Lowest Wages in UK
£3.50 per hour as an apprentice.
Source: http://www.minimum-wage.co.uk/ 2017
Allowing for a 5-day week a working person must receive at least 28 days’ paid annual leave per year.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights
Allow for 365 paid working days a year.
Allow for 8 hours a day.
Allows for 2920 hours per year work at £3.50 per hour.
£10,220 per year. £196.54 per week.
Welfare
Allowing for an average weekly benefit of £65.50 per week.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance
Allow for 52 weeks per year.
£3,406 per year. £65.50 per week.
Pensions
Allowing currently £122.30 per week.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/state-pension
£6,359.6 per year. £122.30 per week.
Status of the Linear Economy.
The status of the current UK linear economy can be established from the previous data.
The UK population is increasing and is projected to increase.
The gender of the UK is approximately equally split.
The largest age group in the UK is currently 40 to 49 years of age.
This places their need, value, quality, appreciations of beauty, cultural and society memory between the years 1968, 1977 and the current year.
The largest population group is still in the working age category.
Allowing for a 65,100,000.population there are approx. 3 people per household in the UK.
There are sufficient houses and sufficient spare space within existing houses for the total population of the UK.
The majority of the UK housing stock is unsuitable for the current economic, social, sustainable, climate change, environment, resource and energy depletion context.
This also places the majority of houses in the UK as being below the standards set out in the Parker Morris Committee 1961 report ‘Homes for Today and Tomorrow’ and the 1963 ‘Space in the Home’ Design Bulletin 6 and the Mandatory Council House Building Standards from 1967 up to 1980.
The majority of homes in the UK therefore are likely to have poor sanitary installations, poor space standards and poor heating systems.
Only 0.4% of the total population are homeless, sleeping rough or in inadequate housing.
There are approx.1,600,000 potential spare homes for the homeless in the UK.
50% of the population works to supporting 100% of the population in the UK.
If evenly split; as is the gender in the UK; it could be considered to be 25% of the male and 25% of the female population supporting 100% of the population.
This employment level could split the impression that each citizen has as to the nature of the country. 50% consider it to be based on manufacturing. 50% consider it to be based on welfare and consumerism.
The number of unemployed people equates to only 4.4% of the total workforce and only 9% of the potential school leaving workforce.
The number of unemployed people below employment age exceeds the number of unemployed people.
The number of unemployed people above employment age exceeds the number of unemployed people.
The number of unemployed people below or above employment age in UK exceeds the number of unemployed people.
The unemployed in the UK are therefore not unemployed due to an age related issue but to an economic issue based on need and supply.
The top wage in UK is below the average household spending and so indicates that the household spending must be from 2 wage earners per household at the top earnings level of the population.
The average wage in UK is below the average household spending and so indicates that the household spending must be from 2 wage earners per household at the average earnings level of the population.
The lowest wage in UK; such as apprenticeships; is below the average household spending and so indicates that the household spending must be from 3 wage earners per household at the lowest earnings level of the population. This also suggests that to train as an apprentice is not financially viable in the UK.
The amount of welfare payment is below the average household spending and so indicates that the household spending must be from 8 wage earners per household at the welfare earnings level of the population.
This suggests that once on welfare the ability to return to the higher earnings levels is dependent on the other people in each household or immediate family.
It also suggests households of 4 times the average size of 2 people are forming at the welfare earnings level in the UK.
This may cause the areas of greatest financial deprivation in the UK to form into welfare income, low travel, low spend, low interaction, cultural areas with a shared opinion of that the UK is existing at a low economic incentive level.
Given the majority of the UK housing stock is unsuitable for the current economic, social, sustainable, climate change, environment, resource and energy depletion context as outlined earlier the lowest and welfare income groups are forced into the lowest quality, oldest housing stock.
This would inform their social view of the nature of the society they are living in. They would perceive their status and role in it as being linked to and maintained by their financial status. They would become more and more isolated from the incentive of the society.
The pensions payment is below the average household spending and so indicates that the household spending must be from 3 wage earners per household at the pensions earnings level of the population. This suggests that life as a pensioner is not easy financially.
Given the majority of the UK housing stock is unsuitable for the current economic, social, sustainable, climate change, environment, resource and energy depletion context as outlined earlier the oldest of our population are likely to be living in the houses they grew up in or are forced into the lowest quality, oldest housing stock.
This would inform their social view of the nature of the society they are living in. They would perceive their status and role in it as being linked to and maintained by their financial status. They would become more and more isolated from the incentive of the society.
There is no earnings level free of debt in 2017.
All work being carried out in the UK is dependent on obtaining bank loans to function.
The amount of bank loan that can be obtained is dependent on the size of the capital required. This is estimated from the locations, buildings, workforces, materials, transport, timescale required to produce the business product.
To be in business; up to the crash of 2007; was to be in debt to the bank.
This only required a list of potential work and an estimate; business plan; to establish the size of the bank loan.
This list of potential work if renewed each year allowed the business person to live a life of immediate wealth; based purely on the bank loan.
Prior to the bank crash of 2007 any bank loan could be re- invested in other banks and so capital could be accrued.
In this self-deceiving way a business person believed they were assisting the UK economy in making the money flow around the economy.
In reality each business created was extending a depleting supply of money towards the point where insufficient money existed to sustain the alleged wealth of the country.
The UK therefore appeared; prior to the 2007 crash; to be an active business, trading nation when it was also a debt ridden, weak, economy.
The current earnings to household spending in 2017 suggest that debt is still acting as an incentive to work rather than being part in a better, progressive, evolving society.
Conclusion
To convert the current linear economy into a circular economy is not an adaptation it is a complete restructuring of the beliefs and incentives of the population of the UK.
The UK must acknowledge that its current economic description of itself is based on a deliberate self-deception.
The UK is not creating wealth it is circulating a small, reducing share of money, resources, energy and environment, at varying, reducing, speeds, through an increasing population.
This linear economic policy inevitably reduces the amount of money per person or household as the population increases.
The linear policy will also create the artificial belief that more goods are being manufactured and purchased as the population increases.
The only actual, real, occurrence is an increasing population.
The circular economy has to allow for use of increasingly less money, less environment, less resources and less energy with an ever increasing population.
The circular economic model is therefore a radical change in the needs, values, qualities, appreciations of beauty, cultures and society of all of the UK.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
05/01/2018
14/10/2020
2277 words over 6 pages