The Problem of Self- Sufficiency in Britain.
As the energy, resources and environmental depletion occurring around the world become more acute after the peaking of the worlds oil reserve in 2020 Britain will have to become self sufficient in energy, resources and environment use.
The current status of agriculture in Britain will be one key in understanding and managing this transition.
This is the status of each of the possible food resources in Britain.
ANIMALS
Dairy Herd
The Dairy herd has been in long term decline
In 2010 the British Dairy heard was = 1,847,000 animals
This allows for = 19 to 39 liters a day / cow
Source: RSPCA
Conclusion
In 2013 population numbers this allows 1-2 pints and dairy products per head of current population per day. It is at sustenance level only. It would need to be improved but this can only occur by the use of more land reducing the potential for other crops.
Beef cows
In 2010 the British beef herd was = 1,657,000
SOURCE:http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Livestock Numbers 2010 est
This allows for a total amount of
meat at 300lbs per 2 year old animal = 497,100,000 lbs
Over 1 year allowing for animal growth = 248,550,000 lbs
= 112,740,374,000 g
At Britain’s red or processed meat
consumption of 500g a week. = 26000 g a year
Source: The Telegraph 20 Feb 2011
Relating to the current population of
Britain in 2013 (63,395,574) = 1,648,284,924,000 g
Source: CIA Word Factbook 2013
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates a shortfall in British meat production ability, made up by imports of approx. 1,535,544,550,000 g. Or an addition to the current beef herd of 11,284,322 animals. Allowing 1 to 3 acres per year for 1 cow requires an additional 12 to 33 million acres of land for beef production. Currently there are about 5,283,000 acres in grazing in Britain.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
This also indicates a change in land use policy.
Sheep and lambs
The UK sheep and lamb herd in 2010 = 31,084,000
SOURCE:http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Livestock Numbers 2010 est
This allows for a total amount of meat
at 35lbs per animal over 1 year = 1,087,940,000 lbs
= 493,481,243 kg
= 493,481,243,000 g
At Britain’s red or processed meat
consumption of 500g a week. = 26000 g a year
Source: The Telegraph 20 Feb 2011
Relating to the current population of
Britain in 2013 (63,395,574) = 1,648,284,924,000 g
Source: CIA Word Factbook 2013
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates a shortfall in British lamb production ability, made up by imports of approx 1,154,803,681,000 g. Or an addition to the current sheep and lamb herd of 72 million animals. Allowing 1 acre per year for 1 sheep requires an additional 72 million acres of land for lamb production. Currently there are about 5,283,000 acres in grazing in Britain.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
This also indicates a change in land use policy.
Pigs
In 2010 the British total pig heard = 4,460,000
SOURCE:http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Livestock Numbers 2010 est
This allows for a total amount of meat
at 100 lbs per year per animal = 446,000,000 lbs
= 202,302,180 kg
= 202,302,180,000 g
At Britain red or processed meat
consumption of 500g a week. = 26000 g a year
Source: The Telegraph 20 Feb 2011
Relating to the current population of
Britain in 2013 (63,395,574) = 1,648,284,924,000 g
Source: CIA Word Factbook 2013
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates a shortfall in British pork production ability, made up by imports of approx. 1,445,982,744,000 g. Or an addition to the current pig herd of 31million animals. Allowing 0.5 acre per year for 1 pig requires an additional 15 million acres of land for pig production. Currently there are about 5,283,000 acres in grazing in Britain.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
Fowl and poultry
In 2010 UK the total fowl flock = 163,867,000
SOURCE:http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Livestock Numbers 2010 est
In 2010 UK total poultry flock = 11,451,000
SOURCE:http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Livestock Numbers 2010 est
Total fowl and poultry flock = 175,318,000
This allows for a total amount of
meat at 5lbs per bird per year = 876,590,000 lbs
= 397,614,503 kg
= 397,614,503,000 g
Britain red or processed meat
consumption of 500g a week. = 26000 g a year
Source: The Telegraph 20 Feb 2011
Using the current population of UK = 1,648,284,924,000 g
in 2013 (63,395,574)
Source: CIA Word Factbook 2013
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates a shortfall in British meat production ability, made up by imports of approx. 1,250,670,421,000 g. Or an addition to the current fowl and poultry flock of 552 million animals. Allowing 0.5 acre per year for 10 animals requires an additional 28 million acres of land for fowl and poultry production. Currently there are about 5,283,000 acres in grazing in Britain.
This may be a possible solution to the meat shortage issue in Britain since it can be accommodated easily within existing farming areas.
The rearing time for the flock is also just over a month using current techniques.
The rearing time can also be seasonal adjusted.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
In terms of Cereal and Vegetable and other produce Britain is potentially well provided for.
Cereals require large amounts of land area.
Vegetables require only a yard area and a domestic plot.
Cereals
In 2012 the Wheat production of
Britain was = approx. 14 million tonnes
= 94 million loaves of bread
= 1-1.5 loaf per person in Britain Barley = approx. 5 million tonnes
Oil seed Rape = approx. 2 million tonnes.
Sugar beet = approx. 1 million tonnes
Source: http://www.ukagriculture.com/statistics/farming_statistics.cfm?strsection=Wheat 2010 est
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates a shortfall in British cereal production ability.
More land will be needed as the population increases.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
Vegetables
These vary seasonally in Britain. The following crops are available.
January
Apples, Beetroot, Brussels Sprouts, Cabbage, Carrots, Celeriac, Celery, Chicory, Jerusalem Artichokes, Kale, Leeks, Mushrooms, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Squash, Swedes, Turnips.
February
Apples, Beetroot, Brussels Sprouts, Cabbage, Carrots, Celeriac, Chicory, Jerusalem Artichokes, Kale, Leeks, Mushrooms, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Purple Sprouting Broccoli, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Squash, Swedes.
March
Artichoke, Beetroot, Cabbage, Carrots, Chicory, Cucumber, Leeks, Parsnip, Purple Sprouting Broccoli, Radishes, Rhubarb, Sorrel, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Watercress.
April
Artichoke, Beetroot, Cabbage, Carrots, Chicory, New Potatoes, Kale, Morel Mushrooms, Parsnips, Radishes, Rhubarb, Rocket, Sorrel, Spinach, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Watercress.
May
Artichoke, Asparagus, Aubergine, Beetroot, Chicory, Chillies, Elderflowers, Lettuce, Marrow, New Potatoes, Peas, Peppers, Radishes, Rhubarb, Rocket, Samphire, Sorrel, Spinach, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Strawberries, Watercress.
June
Asparagus, Aubergine, Beetroot, Blackcurrants, Broad Beans, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Cherries, Chicory, Chillies, Courgettes, Cucumber, Elderflowers, Gooseberries, Lettuce, Marrow, New Potatoes, Peas, Peppers, Radishes, Raspberries, Redcurrants, Rhubarb, Rocket, Runner Beans, Samphire, Sorrel, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Strawberries, Summer Squash, Swiss Chard, Tayberries, Turnips, Watercress.
July
Aubergine, Beetroot, Blackberries, Blackcurrants, Blueberries, Broad Beans, Broccoli, Carrots, Cauliflower, Cherries, Chicory, Chillies, Courgettes, Cucumber, Gooseberries, Greengages, Fennel, French Beans, Garlic, Kohlrabi, Loganberries, New Potatoes, Onions, Peas, Potatoes, Radishes, Raspberries, Redcurrants, Rhubarb, Rocket, Runner Beans, Samphire, Sorrel, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Strawberries, Summer Squash, Swish Chard, Tomatoes, Turnips, Watercress.
August
Aubergine, Beetroot, Blackberries, Blackcurrants, Broad Beans, Broccoli, Carrots, Cauliflower, Cherries, Chicory, Chillies, Courgettes, Cucumber, Damsons, Fennel, French Beans, Garlic, Greengages, Kohlrabi, Leeks, Lettuce, Loganberries, Mangetout, Marrow, Mushrooms, Parsnips, Peas, Peppers, Potatoes, Plums, Pumpkin, Radishes, Raspberries, Redcurrants, Rhubarb, Rocket, Runner Beans, Samphire, Sorrel, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Strawberries, Summer Squash, Sweetcorn, Swiss Chard, Tomatoes, Watercress.
September
Aubergine, Beetroot, Blackberries, Broccoli, Brussels Sprouts, Butternut Squash, Carrots, Cauliflower, Celery, Courgettes, Chicory, Chillies, Cucumber, Damsons, Garlic, Kale, Kohlrabi, Leeks, Lettuce, Mangetout, Marrow, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Peas, Peppers, Plums, Potatoes, Pumpkin, Radishes, Raspberries, Rhubarb, Rocket, Runner Beans, Samphire, Sorrel, Spinach, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Strawberries, Summer Squash, Sweetcorn, Swiss Chard, Tomatoes, Turnips, Watercress, Wild Mushrooms.
October
Aubergine, Apples, Beetroot, Blackberries, Broccoli, Brussels Sprouts, Butternut Squash, Carrots, Cauliflower, Celeriac, Celery, Chestnuts, Chicory, Chillies, Courgette, Cucumber, Elderberries, Kale, Leeks, Lettuce, Marrow, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Peas, Potatoes, Pumpkin, Radishes, Rocket, Runner Beans, Spinach, Spring Greens, Spring Onions, Summer Squash, Swede, Sweetcorn, Swiss Chard, Tomatoes, Turnips, Watercress, Wild Mushrooms, Winter Squash.
November
Apples, Beetroot, Brussels Sprouts, Butternut Squash, Cabbage, Carrots, Cauliflower, Celeriac, Celery, Chestnuts, Chicory, Cranberries, Elderberries, Jerusalem Artichokes, Kale, Leeks, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Potatoes, Pumpkin, Swede, Swiss Chard, Turnips, Watercress, Wild Mushrooms, Winter Squash.
December
Apples, Beetroot, Brussels Sprouts, Carrots, Celeriac, Celery, Chestnuts, Chicory, Cranberries, Jerusalem Artichokes, Kale, Leeks, Mushrooms, Onions, Parsnips, Pears, Potatoes, Pumpkin, Red Cabbage, Swede, Swiss Chard, Turnips, Watercress, Winter Squash.
Conclusion
In 2013 this indicates that Britain can become self sustaining in vegetables.
The crops can also be moved from commercial to domestic production at
each home in the country.
This indicates shift in the diet of the population after 2020 energy and resource depletion.
This also indicates health and life duration effects for the population.
Other products
There are currently 350 vineyards producing wine throughout England, 17 operational vineyards in Wales these produced 20184 hectolitre of white wine grapes, 5083 hectolitre of red wine grapes in 2006.
Britain can also produce Tea, coffee, cheese and butter.
Possible New farms
Aquaculture for fish, crustacean and rice. Inland and offshore.
Arboriculture for timber production. Coppicing for fuels. Charcoal production
Herbs for medicines.
Grasses for fuel.
Sugar cane for fuel.
Sugar beet for fuel.
Solar harvesting by photovoltaic cells and for battery charging.
Bee cultivation for honey, beeswax, propolis – resin as a medicine, pollination of plants and royal jelly.
Salt production from shore areas.
Seaweed production as a food or insulation source.
Oil production from distillation of vegetables.
Oil production from animal fats
Leather and sinew production.
Animal breeding for transport.
New varieties of animal breeding for food and products such as guinea pigs, ostriches, lama , alpaca.
Wild animal breeding for hunting.
Deer farms. Producing Venison, Veal, medicines, sinew production, hide production.
Summary
There are shortfalls in the Dairy Herd, Beef herd, Sheep and Lambs, Pig herd, Fowl and Poultry flocks, Cereals.
New forms of meat and cereal production will be needed.
There are no shortfalls in Vegetables
There are new uses for farms beyond the food production even into energy production.
Britain must become self sufficient in food production to survive with an ever increasing population.
It will have to review and implement a new land use policy at a localised level.
It must reduce dependency on food imports and then remove importation completely.
It must incentivise its population to grow food at each dwelling.
It must allow for the loss of fuels, energy, transportation and oil produced pesticides and fertilizers.
It must allow for potable water collection, filtration and storage at each dwelling.
It must allow for grey water use collection, filtration and storage at each dwelling.
It must transform itself into a self-sufficient group of islands.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: Iankwhittaker@gmail.com
02/08/2013
14/10/2020
1901 words 7 pages