The Future of Transport in Britain after Energy Depletion
If energy levels are reduced by a global reduction in the allowed use of fossil fuels then will the transport system in Britain survive up to 2050.
This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.
2020 to 2050 Populations
The user numbers possible for the transport system are.
Population 2013 = 63,395,574
Population 2020 = 63,746,151
Population 2050 = 77,000,000
The Critical Factor - Energy
The critical factor for any transport system is therefore energy and fuel.
Without these it cannot operate.
Britain will face an energy depletion era from 2015 up to 2050.
Its transport system will be one of those that will have to adapt to this change in available energy.
The Elements of the Transport System of Britain in 2013
The four key elements of current transport in Britain are
Road, Rail, Air and Water
Total Energy Consumed by Transport in 2012
This amounted to 53,248 tonnes of oil equivalent ktoe 2012
36% of total final consumption of UK energy products in 2012
Source: Energy Consumption in the UK (2013) Chapter 2 Transport energy consumption in the UK between 1970 and 2012
Year litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2012 67,731,456,000 425,984,000 53,248,000 53,248
Road Transport
This consumed approx. 74 % of the total energy and fuel allocated for transport in 2012
Source: Energy Consumption in the UK (2013) Chapter 2 Transport energy consumption in the UK between 1970 and 2012
Year All Road Vehicles litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2012 34,590,900 50,203,296,000 315,744,000 39,468,000 39,468
Source: Table VEH0101 Licensed vehicles by body type, Great Britain, quarterly 31 March 1994 to 30 June 2012
Cars
2012 32,179,056,000 202,384,000 25,298,000 25,298
Freight vehicles
2012 18,024,240,000 113,360,000 14,170,000 14,170
This analysis indicates = 1451 litres per vehicle /year
Allowing for a 40 litre tank each = 36 tanks of fuel a year average per vehicle
Allow 30 miles per 4.55 litres = 264 miles per tank of fuel a year average per
vehicle
Allows for = 7920 miles / year to 8430 miles/year in 2010
av per vehicle
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/8995/vehicles-summary.pdf
This indicates a mass transport of the population by privately owned vehicles.
This indicates a mass transport of goods by road carried out using the largest possible vehicles if not the most fuel economic vehicles for each journey.
This indicates people using vehicles are not filling their tanks up and then using all of the fuel.
They are refuelling with some fuel left in the tank of the vehicle allowing for approx 10 miles of travel, perhaps to the next fuel station stop.
Road Fuel Total for 2012 - 2013, 2020, 2050
Projecting per year to the population levels of 2020 and 2050 and then allowing for a 34% reduction in fuel by 2020 and an 80% reduction in fuel by 2050 to match UN Climate agreements then the number of vehicles and the amount of fuel sustainable an be arrived at.
Projected Need for vehicles and fuel
Needs
Year Vehicle litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2012 34,590,900 50,203,296,000 315,744,000 39,468,000 39,468
2020 35,414,528 51,398,663,576 323,262,035 40,407,754 40,408
2050 42,013,963 60,976,714,125 383,501,347 47,937,668 47,938
Actual available vehicles and fuel due to energy depletion
Year Vehicle litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2020 23,373,588 33,923,117,960 213,352,943 26,669,118 26,669
2050 4,674,717 6,784,623,592 42,670,589 5,333,824 toe 5,334
Conclusion
This indicates a massive reduction in the number of motor vehicles up to the year 2050.
In 2013 there are approx. 2 head of population per motor vehicle car, just under 2 vehicles per family.
In 2020 there will be 1 vehicle per 3 head of population.
In 2050 there will be 1 vehicle per 16 head of population.
At the 2012 percentages of types of motor vehicles the type of road transport form
can be seen in 2020 and 2050
In 2020, 23,373,588 total, 19,400,078 cars, 934,944 motor cycles, 2,103,623 light goods,233,736 heavy goods, 233,736 buses and coaches, 467,472 others
In 2050 4,674,717 total, 3,880,015 cars, 186,989 motor cycles, 420,725 light goods, 46,747 heavy goods, 46,747 buses and coaches, 93,494 others.
In this analysis the number of cars per household, allowing for 26,800,000 housing stock in 2008 and retaining this level up to 2050 allows for 1 car per 7 houses in 2050.
Air Transport
This consumed approx. 23 % of the total energy and fuel allocated for transport in 2012, 12,408 ktoe.
This can be further examined in relation to Airline fuel total from tax possible in 2010 and other sources.
Allowing for a percentage increase from 2006 to 2010 over 4 years and projecting per year to 2013, 2020 and 2050 and then allowing for a 34% reduction in use by 2020 and an 80% reduction in use by 2050 to match UN Climate agreements then the number of passengers and airports sustainable an be arrived at.
Airline fuel per passenger and fuel due to energy depletion
Year Passengers (P) Fuel/P litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2006 188,235,294 85 16,000,000,000 100,628,931 12,578,616 12,579
2010 213,933,050 85 18,181,818,000 114,351,057 14,293,882 14,294
2013 233,155,07 85 19,818,181,500 124,642,650 15,580,331 15,580
2020 183,529,407 85 15,599,999,580 98,113,205 12,264,151 12,264
2050 94,117,642 85 7,999,999,600 50,314,463 6,289,308 6,289
Source: 2010 - UK CAA Official Statistics,[6] 2011 - UK CAA Airport Statistics
Source: 'Approximately 16 billion litres of aviation turbine fuel (Avtur), which is used in jet and turboprop aircraft, was consumed in the UK in 2006.'
Taxing aviation fuel Standard Note: SN00523 Last updated: 2 October 2012 Author: Antony Seely Section Business & Transport Section
Conclusion
The critical factor for an airport is fuel. Without fuel it cannot operate.
This principle was proven by the temporary closure of Manchester Airport in 2012 due to fuel reserves running out.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-18344397
The analysis indicates that there will be a reduction in passenger numbers as fuel decreases.
This results in 14%, 17 out of the 40 public airports will remain in Britain up to 2050 even after fossil fuel reductions are implemented.
However the dependency of the airports on the fuel supply directly from the refineries, highlighted by the temporary closure of Manchester Airport in 2012, indicates that the actual number of airports remaining is totally dependant on the oil supply entering Britain as imports and being refined.
Therefore when the refineries are no longer supplied with oil imports large facilities; like the
major public airports; will not be able to function at the same level of throughput and all of the public airports will close.
The use of localised private airfields is likely to continue as long as fuel reserves can be
maintained to allow smaller light aircraft to function within the boundaries of Britain.
The oil crisis of 2020 will cause these effects to begin occur within the next 2 years up to 2015
when the current agreements on UN Climate Change are to be ratified.
A suitable future use for the redundant public airports would be to return them to agricultural land use to feed an increasing population.
Rail Transport
This is one of the minor consumers of total energy and fuel allocated for transport approx. 2% in 2012 = 1,044 ktoe
Comparing the total fuel use of this transport sector against population and then against energy depletion can give a view of the depletion of the whole rail network against population need.
Rail population, fuel use and fuel due to energy depletion
Year Population litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2012 63,395,574 1,327,968,000 8,352,000 1,044,000 1,044
2020 63,746,151 899,033,103 5,654,296 706,787 707
2050 77,000,000 899,033,103 1,130,859 141,357 141
Conclusion
In this analysis the railway network is reduced to 13% of its 2012 status by 2050.
Since 66% of the 2012 railway network is powered by electrification it is dependant on energy generated by fossil fuels. Therefore the railway network could loose 34% of this capability by 2020 to energy depletion and 80% of its network by 2050 to energy depletion.
This pushes the railway network to a closure level by 2050.
The HST project may be considered a potential future for the railway network if it is the only railway network in the country operating on two lines with renewable energy systems by 2050.
The oil crisis of 2020 will cause these effects to begin occur within the next 2 years up to 2015 when the current agreements on UN Climate Change are to be ratified.
A suitable future use for the redundant railways would be to return them to agricultural land use to feed an increasing population.
Water Transport
This is one of the minor consumers of total energy and fuel approx. 0.6 % in 2012
= 328 ktoe
Comparing the total fuel use of this transport sector against population and then against energy depletion can give a view of the depletion of the whole rail network against population need.
Water population, fuel use and fuel due to energy depletion
Year Population litres barrels of oil total toe total ktoe
2012 63,395,574 417,216,000 2,624,000 328,000 328
2020 63,746,151 275,362,560 1,731,840 216,480 216
2050 77,000,000 550,725 3,464 433 0.433
Conclusion
Since the water transport utilizes energy generated by fossil fuels it will loose 34% of this capability by 2020 and 80% of this capability by 2050.
The oil crisis of 2020 will cause these effects to begin occur within the next 2 years up to 2015 when the current agreements on UN Climate Change are to be ratified.
The water transport can however adapt to utilize historic forms of energy with modern technology assist systems.
Horse drawn barges, with solar power electric motors.
Sailing ships with solar power electric motors.
Bio fuels may be used if the issues of crop yield to area and carbon dioxide release to output energy produced are solved.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
06/10/2013
14/10/2020
1659 words over 4 pages