2013 to 2050 Fuel Choices
Our star, the sun is halfway through its energy resource.
It is halfway through its life.
So is our planet, the Earth.
This would be true even if humans had not existed.
Humans have however existed and have depleted the resources and environment of the Earth.
Three issues have arisen.
First the fossil fuels humans use as fuels produce greenhouse gases that are altering the climate of the planet and making it inhospitable to life.
Secondly humans have to stop using fossil fuels in order to reduce the effects of climate change. Thirdly by reducing and then stopping their use of fossil fuels humans will face a fuel shortage that will threaten their technological progression and then their ability to survive the changes to the climate.
These changes will take place between 2013 and 2050.
As an example this is how our electricity supply over the whole planet will reduce between 2013 and 2050 to comply with the need to reduce fossil fuels and reduce climate temperature change to 2 deg C.
The current total electricity production for the world is
21.33 trillion kWh (2010 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
The current total electricity production divided by the current world population is
21.33 trillion kWh / 7,095,217,980
This allows for an electricity supply for each person on the planet of 3006 kWh / person / year
This is already a very limited energy from which to exist, survive climate change and progress technologically.
66% of the total electrical energy production of the world in 2013 is by fossil fuels.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Due to the necessary fossil fuel reduction to achieve climate temperature control agreements 66.6% of total installed electricity capacity will be lost when fossil fuels are no longer allowed to be used as fuels.
The current total electricity production reduced by 66% divided by the current world population is
66% x 21.33 trillion kWh / 7,095,217,980
This allows for an electricity supply for each person on the planet of 1984 kWh / person / year
This is an even more limited energy from which to exist, survive climate change and progress technologically.
Moving the timescale up to 2050 and allowing for a world population of 10,000,000,000
The reduced total electricity production after being reduced by 66% and then divided by the 2050 world population is
66% x 21.33 trillion kWh / 10,000,000,000
This allows for an electricity supply for each person on the planet of 1408 kWh / person / year
This is an even more limited energy from which to exist, survive climate change and progress technologically.
Since the energy to manufacture will not be available not only the fossil fuels but also all of the products that they once created will be reducing in availability between 2013 and 2050.
Manufacturing of alternative renewable fuel sources will continue until the fossil fuel resources are no longer allowed to be extracted or cannot be extracted due to the reduced energy availability.
Exports and imports powered by fossil fuels will reduce in all countries.
Clearly alternative, sustainable, fuels must be found.
These must be localized at each dwelling and workplace in each settlement to allow the society that has been created to survive long enough to manufacture the new renewable energy sources and install them.
This is a comparison of available fuel sources.
To establish if they are suitable renewable fuels three conditions that must be met.
1. They cause minimal climate change potential in use.
2. They use minimal fossil fuels in there manufacture and distribution.
3. They must have a high enough calorific value to allow them to be used to develop solids, liquids and gases of any element technologically.
These are some fuels in order of climate change potential in terms of KgCO2e to kWh output
Fuel Number of units / kWh Units KgCO2e
Grid electricity 1 0.52462
Industrial coal 1 0.33253
Gas oil 1 0.27857
Fuel oil 1 0.26744
Crude Oil 1 0.26000
Diesel 1 0.25174
Burning oil 1 0.24681
Petrol 1 0.24066
LPG 1 0.21467
Natural gas 1 0.1836
Wood pellets 1 0.03895
Source:Carbon Trust
Hydrogen is not on this list.
It is at an initial inspection a very suitable fuel.
It produces 0.000 KgCO2e.
However hydrogen doe not naturally occur on the Earth. It requires a distillation process and fossil fuels to be burnt in order to be produced so the 0.000 KgCO2e is actually the same as the use of industrial coal, 0.33253 KgCO2e to produce the electricity necessary to set up an electrolytic distillation to produce hydrogen.
These are some fuels in order of Calorific Value and fuel dimensions kWh / tonne output
Fuel Calorific Value Dimensions / tonne
kWh/tonne
Hydrogen 39000 12,195m x 12,195m x 12,195m
Natural gas 14610
Ethane 14031
Propane 13800
LPG 13668
Burning oil 12834
Petrol 12807
Kerosene 12800
Heating oil 12800
Gas/diesel oil 12584
Fuel oil 12029
Crude Oil 11666
Biodiesel 10720
Algae 80% algae oil content 9763 (US) 14 hectares
181 metric tons algae oil per hectare / year is 20815 US gallons or 495 US 42 gallon barrels at $25 / barrel
For comparison Crude oil is $108.60 per 42 gallon barrel 14092013
Tyres 8864
Charcoal 8333 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
Bioethanol 8227
Ethanol 8200
Compressed leaf product 7700
Coal (weighted average) 7500 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
Rapeseed 6830
Landfill Gas 6371
Sewage Gas 6371
Algae 10% algae oil content 5462 (US) 3 hectares
40 metric tons algae oil per hectare / year is 4600 US gallons or 109 US 42 gallon barrels at $25 / barrel
For comparison Crude oil is $108.60 per 42 gallon barrel 14092013
Meat and bone 5540
Methanol 5500
Wood (solid - oven dry) 5300 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
Peat 5400
Algae 80% algae oil content 4882 (UK) 7 hectares
90 metric tons algae oil per hectare / year is 10350 US gallons or 246 US 42 gallon barrels at $25 / barrel
For comparison Crude oil is $108.60 per 42 gallon barrel 14092013
Wood Pellets 4800 1.5m3
Straw 4389
Log wood (stacked 4100 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
air dry: 20% MC)
Hospital waste 3878
Industrial wood 3806
Miscanthus (bale - 25% MC) 3600
Wood chips (30% MC) 3500 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
Short rotation coppice 3084 1.5m x 1.5m x 1.5m
Algae 10% algae oil content 2731 (UK) 1 hectare
13 metric tons algae oil per hectare / year is 1500 US gallons or 36 US 42 gallon barrels at $25 / barrel
For comparison Crude oil is $108.60 per 42 gallon barrel 14092013
Poultry litter 2520
Sunflower Oil 1040
Blast furnace Gas 831
Sodium Sulphur batteries 103 - 116
Lithium Ion 75 - 120
Nickel metal Hydride 35 - 95
Nickel cadmium 22 - 60
Lead Acid Battery 20 – 50
Sources for all batteries:
Rantik 1999 and Rydh 2005. A Review of Battery Life-Cycle Analysis:
State of Knowledge and Critical Needs
Solar panel 6
Allowing 2000 pounds per tonne weight. Allowing 250 pounds per boule ingot. Allows for 8 boule ingots per tonne. Allows for 25 pv panels per boule ingot. Allows for 200 pv panels per tonne. Allowing 1202 kWh/boule ingot. Allows for 9616kwh/tonne. Allowing for 1 kWh pv panels. Allows for 200 1 kW pv panels/tonne. Allows for 48 kWh/pv/tonne. Allow for 225 pounds weight / 1kWh/pv panel. Allow for 1/8th of a tonne. Allow for 1/8th of 48kWh/pv/tonne = 6kWh/tonne
Wind power turbine 5 2000kw, 6192 sq m, 350 tonne
Water 1.1666 1m x 1m x 1m
Source: Carbon Trust
Source:http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/Fuel_Cost_
Comparison/NOTE_for_domestic_sheets_Updated_Aug_2012_.docx
Source: http://lehrafuel.com/briquetts-calorific-value.html
Source: http://www.agmrc.org/business_development/getting_prepared/measurements_
and_conversions/energy-
measurements-and-conversions/
Source: http://www.biofuelsb2b.com/useful_info.php?page=Typic
Source: http://ramblingsdc.net/EnUnits.html
Source: The Potential yield of Microalgal Oil. A Simple Estimation
Source: http://www.greenchipstocks.com/report/investing-in-algae-biofuel/109
Source: http://www.quoteoil.com/
Source: http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/co2-emission-fuels-d_1085.html
Source: https://www.wind-watch.org/faq-size.php
Source: Report on Renewables from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC)
Source: http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-10/iss-1/p20.html
Source: http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-10/iss-1/p20.html
Source: http://www.aip.org/tip/INPHFA/vol-10/iss-1/p20.html
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/49362/dukesa_1-a_3.xls
Wave energy collectors have not been included in the analysis.
The technology is in the early design stages.
The technology will rely on transporting energy from collection points remote from the use point and so will suffer from energy loss.
Conclusion
In terms of causing a minimal climate change potential in use passive systems are the best fuel source.
In terms of minimal use of fossil fuels in there manufacture and distribution passive systems are the best fuel source.
In terms of having a high enough calorific value to allow it to be used to develop solids, liquids and gases of any element technologically wood and charcoal remain the best passively produced fuel source.
Allowing for 0.5 to 0.75 tons per household per year suggests that 13,100,000 minimum tons of wood fuel are required
Allowing for all of the woodland in Britain some 2,841,000 hectares, 7,020,272 acres
This would produce at 2 tons / acre, 14,040,544 tons
This would allow the existing total woodland to produce the required tons of timber per year up to 2050 for only the autumn and winter months.
Short rotation coppice is therefore the best fuel source to allow the society that has been created to survive long enough to manufacture the new renewable energy sources and install them.
The short rotation coppice could generate 8 to 18 tonnes of dry woodchip per hectare per year.
Each home would require 1 ton of short rotation coppice per year per 1250 sq m. This equates to 1500 cuttings to start off the coppice or replace it.
The short rotation coppice system would occupy about 1/ 3 of an acre plot.
The Short rotation Coppice stools would remain productive for up to 30 years before they require replacing.
Source: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/infd-66sj79
If compared as a potential fuel source in a house then
For a pre 2007, 2storey 3Bedroom 4 Person House ( 2st3B4P )
This achieves approx. 87m2 = 87 x 51 kwh/m²/yr = 4500 kwh/year
Source: BERR Energy Trends December 2007 www.berr.gov.uk/files
1 tonne of solid wood / year would power this 3b4p2st house to 2007 standards 4500 kwh/year
This creates 175 Units KgCO2e / year.
For a post 2020, peak oil, 2storey 3 Bedroom 4 Person House ( 2st3B4P)
This achieves approx. 87m2 = 87 x 30 kWh/m²/yr = 2610 kwh/yr
Source: EU low energy house standards.
1 tonne of short rotation coppice / year would power this 3b4p2st house to post 2020,peak oil, standards of 2610 kwh/year.
This creates 101 Units KgCO2e / year.
For a post 2020 minimum energy, 1storey, 4 Person House ( 1st4P)
This achieves approx. 56m2 = 56 x 30 kWh/m²/yr = 1680 kwh/yr
3/4 tonne of short rotation coppice / year would power this 4p1st house to post 2020,
minimal energy, standards 1680 kwh/year.
This creates 65 Units KgCO2e / year.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
14/10/2013
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