The Age of the Dwelling Stock in the UK and Climate Change.
Theory
This essay proposes that the age of the dwelling stock in the UK determines its ability to assist in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions and in assisting in controlling climate change.
Definitions
In the scope of this essay the following definitions apply.
Age
Date completed as a dwelling.
Dwelling
A form of habitation.
UK
The United Kingdom of England, Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland.
Assumptions
Climate change is caused by humans forcing more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the natural cycles of the planet can process.
The essay assumes that the older a dwelling is the more its standard of construction differs from current standards of construction related to new build dwellings.
The more a dwelling differs from the current standards of construction related to new build dwellings the more it differs from the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
The more a dwelling differs in standards from the Climate Change Act 2008 the more it requires environment, resources and energy to be converted, adapted or refurbished to achieve those standards.
The more environment, resources and energy a dwelling uses the more it assists in greenhouse gas emissions.
The more a dwelling assists in greenhouse gas emissions the less it can assist in controlling climate change caused by human forced use of greenhouse gas producing resources and products.
Method
The essay examines the following to establish the current age of the property in the UK.
Standards relating to dwellings are established and dated.
The number and percentage of dwellings per country, per era, from pre 1919 to 2017 related to total housing stock are established.
The number and percentage of properties built after the 1980’s, per country, per era; in order to comply with standards; is established.
The number and percentage of dwellings built before the 1980’s, per country, that are below the standards of habitable dwellings in the UK and also remote from the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
The number and percentage of inadequate dwellings per country and then in the UK are then established.
Conclusions are then drawn.
References are included in the text.
An addendum of influences relating to the potential construction, extension, conversion, adaptation, refurbishment of dwellings in the UK is added to the end of the essay with references.
Standards.
Any dwellings meeting the standards of a habitable dwelling must achieve the
The Parker Morris Committee 1961 report on housing space standards in public housing in the United Kingdom titled Homes for Today and Tomorrow.
The 1963 Ministry of Housing's "Design Bulletin 6 – Space in the Home".
The standards to become mandatory for all council houses from 1967 until 1980.
The Housing Act 1980 that gave five million council house tenants in England and Wales the Right to Buy their house from their local authority.
The current Planning and Building Regulations.
Any dwellings built before the 1980’s would be below these standards of habitable dwellings in the UK and therefore unable to achieve the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050..
Census 2011
In 2011 There were 22.1 million households in England.
2.4 million households in Scotland.
1.3 million households in Wales.
0.7 million households in Northern Ireland.
26.5 million households in 2001.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationandhouseholdestimatesfortheunitedkingdom/2011-03-21
Current Population
The population of the UK in 2016 was recorded as 65,600,000.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/july2017
Current Number of Dwellings
There are 27,227,700 dwellings in the UK.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/adhocs/005374totalnumberofhouseholdsbyregionandcountryoftheuk1996to2015
This allows for 1 dwelling for 2.4; 3; people.
There are sufficient dwellings to house the 2016 – 2017 population of the UK.
England Data Pre 1919 to Post 1980
Using the 2014-to-2015-housing-stock-report and dwelling age by tenure reports, 1996, 2005 and 2014 The age of the property in England can be established.
Pre 1919 dwellings. 4,698,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000. 20%
1919 to 1944 dwellings. 3,903,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000.17%
1945 to 1964 dwellings. 4,473,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000.19%
1965 to 1980 dwellings. 4,775,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000. 20%
Post 1980 dwellings. 5,522,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000. 24%
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2014-to-2015-housing-stock-report1996, 2014, 2015. Annex Table 1.4: Dwelling age by tenure, 1996, 2005 and 2014
Only the post 1980 dwellings; 5,522,000 dwellings out of 23,371,000. 24%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050. 76% are inadequate dwellings.
This compares with the estimate from the housing survey of 4,700,000, 20%, of the total housing stock; that built before 1919; tend to be less energy efficient, suffer from greater disrepair and are less likely to meet the minimum standard of housing.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-housing-survey-2014-to-2015-housing-stock-report1996, 2014, 2015.
Using the historical data from the ONS.
The age of the property in England can be established.
Allowing for approx. dwellings in England in 1982. 18,154,000
Allowing for approx. dwellings in England in 2016. 23,733,000
Source: Table 104 Dwelling stock: by tenure1, England (historical series)2 3
Allowing for the 1982 to 2016 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve the required standards 23,733,000 - 18,154,000
Allows for 5,579,000 dwellings.
Only the post 1982 dwellings; 5,579,000 out of 23,733,000, 24%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
76% are inadequate dwellings.
Using the data from the Age Profiles of Housing Stock in England and Wales derived from statistics published by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA).1900 to 2016. The age of the property in England can be established.
Pre 1900 dwellings; 3,789,320 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 16.16%
1900 to 1918 dwellings; 1,293,500 out of 237,56,870 dwellings; 5.52%
1919 to 1929 dwellings; 1,230,370 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 5,25%
1930-1939 dwellings; 2,589,510 out of 237,56,870 dwellings; 11.05%
1945-1954 dwellings; 1,644,590 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 7.01%
1955-1964 dwellings; 2,525,310 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 10.77%
1965-1972 dwellings; 2,420,830 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 10.33%
1973-1982 dwellings; 2,273,720 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 9.7%
1983-1992 dwellings; 1,762,950 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 7.52%
1993-1999 dwellings; 1,267,380 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 5.41%
2000-2009 dwellings; 1,768,680 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 7.54%
2010-2016 dwellings; 878,410 out of 23,756,870 dwellings; 3.75%
Source: Contains Datadaptive data © Datadaptive copyright and database right 2017
Source: Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 to 2017
Source: Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0
Allowing for the 1983 to 2016 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards 5,677,420 dwellings out of 23,756,870 dwellings. 24% are adequate.
76% are inadequate dwellings.
The housing stock report data, dwelling age by tenure reports, the historical data from the ONS and the data from the VOA suggest that 76% of the current dwelling stock in England is inadequate.
Scotland Data Pre 1919 to Post 1982
Using the Scottish House Condition Survey 2015 the age of the property in Scotland can be established.
Pre-1919 480,000 dwellings out of 2,400,000. 20%
1919-1944 264,000 dwellings out of 2,400,000. 11%
1945-1964 528,000 dwellings out of 2,400,000. 22%
1965-1982 552,000 dwellings out of 2,400,000. 23%
post-1982 576,000 dwellings out of 2,400,000. 24%
Source: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/1539/335996 Scottish House Condition Survey 2015: Key Findings
‘The Scottish housing stock is diverse and varies across the country and between rural and urban areas. However, some common types can be recognised in
Old (pre-1919) detached houses (around 103,000) and tenement flats (218,000)
More modern post-1982 detached houses (228,000) and tenements (138,000)
Post-war terraced houses (340,000 built between 1945 and 1982)
Semi-detached houses, common across all age bands and accounting for around 20% of the stock alone. (480,000 dwellings)
These six broad categories account for 62% of the overall housing stock. However, there is also a good deal of variability within these groups; even among pre-1919 tenement flats of the type common in Edinburgh and Glasgow, there is a wide range of sizes, shapes and areas of exposure (for example in top floor flats the roof is exposed) which affects their energy efficiency and the living conditions they provide. ‘
Source: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/1539/335996 Scottish House Condition Survey 2015: Key Findings
Allowing for 62% of a total of 2,400,000 dwellings in 2015 dwellings account for 1,488,000. The figures given amount to 1,507,000 so the actual number is somewhere between the two.
Only the post 1982 dwellings; 576,000 out of 2,400,000, 24%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
76% are inadequate dwellings.
Using the historical data from the ONS relating to Scotland the age of the property in Scotland can be established.
Allowing for approx. dwellings in Scotland in 1982. 1,983,000
Allowing for approx. dwellings in Scotland in 2015 2,549,000
Source: Table 107 Dwelling stock: by tenure1,2,3,4,5, Scotland (historical series)
Allowing for the 1982 to 2016 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards 2,549,000 - 1,983,000
Allows for 566,000 dwellings.
Only the post 1982 dwellings; 566,000 out of 2,549,000, 22%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
78% are inadequate dwellings.
The Scottish House Condition Survey and the historical data from the ONS suggest that between 76% and 78% of the current dwelling stock in Scotland is inadequate.
Wales Data Pre1900 to 2016
Using the historical data from the ONS the age of the property in Wales can be established.
Allowing for approx.1,096,000 dwellings in Wales in 1982.
Source: ONS: Table 106 Dwelling stock: by tenure1,2, Wales (historical series)
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 1,406,000 in 2015
Source: Table 106 Dwelling stock: by tenure1,2, Wales (historical series)
Allowing for the 1982 to 2015 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards. 1,406,000 - 1,096,000.
Allows for 310,000 dwellings.
Only the post 1982 dwellings; 310,000 out of 1,406,000, 22%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
78% are inadequate dwellings.
Using the data from the Age Profiles of Housing Stock in England and Wales derived from statistics published by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA).1900 to 2016. The age of the property in Wales can be established.
Pre 1900 327,810 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 23.49%
1900 to 1918 112,850 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 8.09%
1919 to 1929 66,710 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 4.78%
1930-1939 76,350 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 5.47%
1945-1954 95,500 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 6.84%
1955-1964 139,410 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 9.99%
1965-1972 135,320 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 9.7%
1973-1982 126,020 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 9.03%
1983-1992 92,830 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 6.65%
1993-1999 77,870 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 5.58%
2000-2009 102,890 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 7.37%
2010-2016 41,810 dwellings; out of 1,414,880 dwellings; 3%
Source: Contains Datadaptive data © Datadaptive copyright and database right 2017
Source: Contains National Statistics data © Crown copyright and database right 2011 to 2017
Source: Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0
Allowing for the 1983 to 2016 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards 315,400 dwellings out of 1,414,880 dwellings. 22%
78% are inadequate dwellings.
Using the data from the Living in Wales Survey 2008.
Adding in the data from the ONS for 1982 and 2015.
Recalculating the percentage for each year related to 2015.
The age of the property in Wales can be established.
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 361,556 Pre 1919.
Source: Living in Wales 20078 survey.
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 524,819 up to 1944.
Source: Living in Wales 20078 survey.
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 768,946 up to 1964.
Source: Living in Wales 20078 survey.
Allowing for approx.1,096,000 dwellings in Wales in 1982.
Source: ONS: Table 106 Dwelling stock: by tenure1,2, Wales (historical series)
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 1,268,419 in 2008.
Source: Living in Wales 20078 survey.
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Wales as 1,406,000 in 2015.
Source: Table 106 Dwelling stock: by tenure1,2, Wales (historical series)
Living in Wales Survey 2008 without adjustment using 1982 and 2015 data.
Before 1919 361,556; out of 1,268,419 dwellings; 29%
1919-1944 163,263; out of 1,268,419 dwellings; 13%
1945-1964 244,127; out of 1,268,419 dwellings; 19%
1964-2008 499,471; out of 1,268,419 dwellings; 39%
Living in Wales Survey 2008 with 1982 and 2015 data added in with percentages revised to 2015.
Before 1919 361,556; out of 361,556 dwellings; 100%; 26% of 2015 dwelling total.
1919-1944 163,263; out of 524,819 dwellings; 31%; 12% of 2015 dwelling total.
1945-1964 244,127; out of 768,964 dwellings; 32%; 17% of 2015 dwelling total.
1964-1982 499,471; out of 1,096,000; 1982 dwellings; 46%; 36% of 2015 dwelling total.
1982-2008 172,419; out of 1,268,419 dwellings; 14%; 12% of 2015 dwelling total.
2008 to 2015 137,581; out of 1,406,000 dwellings; 10%; 10% of 2015 dwelling total.
Allowing for the 1982 to 2015 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards 310,000 dwellings out of 1,406,000 dwellings. 22%
78% are inadequate dwellings.
The historical data from the ONS, the data from the VOA and the Living in Wales survey suggest that 78% of the current dwelling stock in Wales is inadequate.
Northern Ireland Data
Using the historical data from the ONS the age of the property in Northern Ireland can be established
Allowing for the dwelling stock of Northern Ireland to be 506,000 dwellings in 1982.
Source: Table 108 Dwelling stock: by tenure1, Northern Ireland (historical series)
Allowing for the total number of dwellings in Northern Ireland in 2014 as 767,000.
Source: Table 108 Dwelling stock: by tenure1, Northern Ireland (historical series)
Allowing for the 1982 to 2014 dwellings to represent those house that could achieve required standards. 767,000 - 506,000.
Allows for 261,000 dwellings.
Only the post 1982 dwellings; 261,000 out of 767,000, 34%; are close to the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050.
82% are inadequate dwellings.
Conclusions
Between 76% and 82% of the dwelling stock in the UK is inadequate.
Only 18% to 24% of the dwelling stock in the UK is close to the standards of habitable dwellings and the targets set by the Climate Change Act 2008 relating to the reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 and 2050 and so able to assist in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and controlling climate change.
If any improvements are planned to the housing stock then increased amounts of environment, resources and energy will have to be used. This will assist in the depletion of existing environment, resources and energy. This will cause the forced release of greenhouse gases and assist in global warming.
The UK will have an Architecture without manufacturing by the year 2050 and this will include the housing stock from 1900 to 2017 as it currently exists with only minor upgrades to housing stock standards being possible.
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-244---the-green-house-gas-architecture-of-the-uk-1715-to-2018
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
09/03/2018
14/03/218
14/10/2020
3053 words over 7 pages
Addendum
The following are also influences relating to the potential construction, extension, conversion, adaptation, refurbishment of dwellings in the UK.
The UK currently uses 55.6% of fossil fuels to generate its electricity in 2017.
Source: CIA World Factbook
This means that in order to extract resources, create materials, construct, adapt or refurbish through construction will use fossil fuels and so add to greenhouse gas emissions levels and assist in climate change and global warming.
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-244---the-green-house-gas-architecture-of-the-uk-1715-to-2018
‘The total Carbon Dioxide emissions; of Architecture and Construction; account for approx. 62% of the total UK emissions of greenhouse gases’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-086---architecture-and-construction-carbon-dioxide-emissions-in-britain 2014
This means that any construction activities will add to global warming.
‘If considered in terms of release of Carbon Dioxide; the largest component of human influenced climate change; constructing a house is a significant driver of climate change.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/why-house-building-should-be-limited-or-prevented-in-the-uk-in-2016 Article 170
This means that any construction adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and accelerates global warming.
‘The construction of a house in the UK can be shown to be inherently depleting in terms of environment, energy, and resources.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/why-house-building-should-be-limited-or-prevented-in-the-uk-in-2016 Article 170
This means that construction; in any form; is a depletion process.
‘Construction of houses should therefore be limited or prevented to allow adaptation to the effects of the current context of a century of climate change, depleting fossil fuel use and depleting energy, resource and environment humans are having to adapt to.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/why-house-building-should-be-limited-or-prevented-in-the-uk-in-2016 Article 170
Construction need to be limited.
‘Architecture and Construction are very energy intensive in 2014. They take up approx. 65% of UK energy use per year.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-085---architecture-and-construction-in-a-depletion-economy
Construction is an energy intensive activity. The level of energy available will reduce after fossil fuels are phased out after 2030. This reduces the potential for any construction activity.
‘Britain does not need any more new houses currently or up to 2050.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-033
The population of the UK in 2016 was recorded as 65,600,000.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/july2017
There are 27,227,700 dwellings in the UK.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/adhocs/005374totalnumberofhouseholdsbyregionandcountryoftheuk1996to2015
This allows for 1 dwelling for 2.4; 3; people.
There are sufficient dwellings to house the 2016 – 2017 population.
‘The possibility of adding renewables to the existing housing stock varies by age and type of housing stock.
The cost of adding renewables to the existing housing stock varies by age and type of housing stock.
The total cost of adding renewables is in the billions of pounds.
The renewables must be fitted to allow for the shortfall in the generation capacity and the increase in the population which will increase consumption rates.’
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-033
Renewable energy is needed to totally replace fossil fuels.
The UK currently uses 55.6% of fossil fuels to generate its electricity in 2017
Source: CIA World Factbook
The UK currently generates only 33.4% of its total installed generating capacity from renewable sources.
Source: CIA World Factbook
Any new or existing dwelling not able to utilize the lower energy level available from renewables must be considered inadequate.