Depletion the Great Convergence
The Great Divergence is the point in history where western world populations became the dominant world population group.
This essay proposes another point in history which will be referred to as ‘The Great Convergence’.
It is the proposed name for an era in the future that each continents land areas, populations, energy resources, energy use, energy consumption, renewable energy and depletion rates converge.
The essay examines the land area, population, global hunger index, ground water resources, water withdrawals, carbon dioxide emissions, energy resource and energy consumptions of each continent.
It establishes if a depletion effect exists, what the depletion era timescales area, which continents dominate the depletion sequences and which continents dominate the overall depletion era.
Land Area of each continent in descending order
Out of a world land area of 148,940,000 km2 each continent is approx.
Asia = 43,820,000 km2 = 29% of total land area
Africa = 30,370,000 km2 = 20% of total land area
North America = 24,490,000 km2 = 16% of total land area
South America = 17,840,000 km2= 12% of total land area
Antarctica = 13,720,000 km2 = 10% of total land area
Europe = 10,810,000 km2 = 7% of total land area
Australia = 9,008,500 km2 = 6% of total land area
Population of each continent in descending order
Out of a world population of 7,000,000,000 each continent has approx.
Asia = 3,817,000,000 = 55% of total population = 1 per 0.01 sq km
Africa = 1,049,000,000 = 15% of total population = 1 per 0.03 sq km
Europe = 609,000,000 = 9% of total population = 1 per 0.01 sq km
North America = 460,000,000 = 8% of total population = 1 per 0.05 sq km
South America = 478,000,000 = 7% of total population = 1 per 0.03 sq km
Australia = 22,000,000 = 0.3% of total population = 1 per 0.4 per sq km
Antarctica = 4,490 = 0 % of total population = 1 per 2006 sq km
Sources:
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=667&t=2
http://www.unitconversion.org/power/watts-to-terawatts-conversion.html
Global Hunger Index of each continent in descending order
Africa = 4.9 to 30, low to extremely alarming
Asia = 4.9 to 19.9, low to serious
South America = 4.9 to 9.9, low to moderate
Europe = 0, Industrialised
North America = 0, Industrialised
Australia = 0, Industrialised
Antarctica = 0
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Ground Water resource of each continent in descending order
Asia = 7,800,000 km3
Africa = 5,500,000 km3
North America = 4,300,000 km3
South America = 3,000,000 km3
Europe = 1,600,000 km3
Australia = 1,200,000 km3
Antarctica = 0
Source: http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/gif/0200-water-region-EN.gif
Source: http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/freshwater-resources-volume-by-continent_1257
Water withdrawal per year of each continent in descending order
Asia = 3000 km3
North America = 750 km3
Europe = 500 km3
Africa = 250 km3
South America = 250 km3
Australia = 100 km3
Antarctica = 0
Source: http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0210-withdrawcons-cont-EN.jpg
Carbon dioxide emissions of each continent in descending order
Asia = 15,204 million tonnes
North America = 6,411 million tonnes
Europe = 4,310 million tonnes
Africa = 2,836 million tonnes
South America = 1,273 million tonnes
Australia = 418 million tonnes
Antarctica = 0
Source: The world in carbon dioxide emissions Infographic
Energy resource of each continent in descending order
The Earth has a total passive energy potential of Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Wave Energy, Geothermal, Biomass, Animals, Plants Photosynthesis, Humans, Oil, Gas, Coal, Tar Sands of
= 15,293,609 Twh
Source: CIA World Fact book 2014
Source: https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/tl/cnvrsntbl/cnvrsntbl-eng.html#s1ss2
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
Source; "About Tar Sands".
Energy resources of each continent in descending order
Out of a potential energy of the Earth of 15,293,609 Twh each continent has energy consumption of.
South America = 648,803 Twh. Without fossil fuels = 1,953 Twh
North America = 635,076 Twh. Without fossil fuels = 5,894 Twh
Africa = 411,073 Twh. Without fossil fuels = 801 Twh
Asia = 349,651 terawatts hours. Without fossil fuels = 10,063 Twh
Europe = 108,267 Twh. Without fossil fuels = 4,622 Twh
Australia = 52,130 Twh. Without fossil fuels = 259 Twh
Antarctica = 0. Without fossil fuels = 0
Sources:
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=667&t=2
http://www.unitconversion.org/power/watts-to-terawatts-conversion.html
Amount of fuel used to generate one kilo watt hour (kWh): Coal = 0.00054 short tons or 1.09 pounds
Natural gas = 0.00786 Mcf (1,000 cubic feet) Petroleum = 0.00188 barrels (or 0.08 gallons)
Energy Consumption of each continent in descending order
Out of a potential energy of the Earth of 15,293,609 Twh each continent has energy consumption of.
Asia = 59,235 Twh = 53% of energy consumption
Europe = 23,739 Twh = 21% of energy consumption
Africa = 14,360 Twh = 13% of energy consumption
South America = 8,499 Twh = 8% of energy consumption
North America = 4,689 Twh = 4% of energy consumption
Australia = 1,758 Twh = 1% of energy consumption
Antarctica = 0 Twh = 0% of energy consumption
Source: http://timeforchange.org/prediction-of-energy-consumption 2010
Source: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=44&pid=44&aid=2
Total energy consumption of all continents = 112,280 Twh per year
Years of reserves remaining = 15,293,609 / 112,280 = 136 years
= 2010 + 136 = 2146 end of reserve year = 2078 peak reserve year period
Allowing for Earth energy resources already in use = 13,088,609 Twh of remaining Earth resources.
= 13,088,609 / 112,280 Twh of energy use per year = 116 years
= 2010 + 116 = 2126 end of reserves year = 2068 peak reserve year period
Convergence of Earth potential resource to consumption depletion by 2068 to 2146 even without considering the necessary reduction in fossil fuels to control climate change.
This continental depletion from the data occurs in the following sequence Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, North America, Australia and Antarctica.
Allowing for climate change, the end of fossil fuel use and the Earth resources already in use with only renewable energy the generation and consumption of each continent is
= 23,592 Twh of energy use per year only from renewables and passive energy
= 13,065,017 Twh / 23,592 Twh = 554 years of reserves remaining
= 2010 + 554 = 2564 end of reserves year = 2287 peak reserves year period
This continental depletion into only renewable energy occurs in the following sequence
Asia, North America, Europe, South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica
Conclusions
There are depletion sequences occurring per continent.
The depletion sequences are interrelated.
The population are all increasing. This places a pressure on the land area use. The data indicates a depletion of land area per person. Allowing a 1 acre per person, 4,047m2, 0.405 hectares, 0.004 sq km for humans to survive. For the data on population to land to reach this level would take a depletion of between 60% to 92%. Allowing for a 1.1% per year 2014 level of population growth then between 55 and 84 years will be needed to reduce the current population to land area to survival levels.
The data indicates a convergence of land area depletion to population increase by 2069 to 2098.
The continental depletion from the data occurs in the following sequence Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, South America, Australia and Antarctica.
The data indicates a convergence of Earth potential resource to consumption depletion by 2078 to 2146.
This continental depletion from the data occurs in the following sequence Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, North America, Australia and Antarctica.
The data indicates an Earth potential resource to consumption depletion by 2068 to 2146.
This continental depletion from the data occurs in the following sequence Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, North America, Australia and Antarctica.
The data indicates a convergence of Earth potential resource to consumption depletion including a reduction in fossil fuels to control climate change between 2010 and 2564.
This continental depletion from the data occurs in the following sequence Asia, North America, Europe, South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica.
The short term depletion factors of food and water indicate a continental depletion sequence starting with Asia or Africa and then varying in sequence.
The global hunger Index indicates a continental depletion sequence of Africa, Asia, South America, Europe, North America, Australia and Antarctica.
The stress on water reserves indicates a continental depletion sequence of Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Antarctica.
The carbon dioxide emissions indicate a continental pollution depletion sequence of Asia, North America, Europe, Africa, South America, Australia and Antarctica.
The overall continental depletion sequence is Asia, Europe, Africa, North and South America, Australia and then Antarctica.
There is a depletion convergence era between 2010 to 2098 and then onward post convergence as a renewable Earth society up to 2564.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
24/03/2015
14/10/2020
1440 words over 4 pages