A Timeline for Changing to Renewable Energy as of 2013
The IPCC report ‘Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis The Summary for Policymakers was released on Friday, 27 September 2013’
The report sets out the current scientific consensus on climate change issues.
The Key findings of the report
The Global Climate has been warming naturally and will warm naturally at an increased rate due to human greenhouse gas emissions released since pre-industrial times.
The Atmosphere, Oceans, Polar Ice Caps, Weather patterns, Water cycle and Carbon cycle are all being affected by these changes and causing changes in the Global Climate.
Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 and above 2°C through our century and beyond the 2100.
The proposed control method
The method proposed to reduce the effects of climate change to a 2°C rise is to substantially control the use of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases produced through human activity.
This method proposes that 800 Gt of Carbon ( C ) less the maximum 616 Gt of Carbon ( C ) released up to 2011 should be the controlling amount of fossil fuel emission for human activity on the planet. This allows 800 GtC – 616GtC = 184GtC of fossil fuel use.
The amount of global GtCO2 in remaining fossil fuel reserves is approx. 2872 - 2860 GtCO2
Source: Unburnable Carbon
This allows for 2860 / 3.67 Gt CO2 to 1 Gt C = 779 GtC of remaining global fossil fuel reserves
Humans can therefore use only 184GtC / 779 GtC x100 = 23% of remaining global fossil fuel reserves.
The effects of the proposed controls on fossil fuel use
This means that we could use all of the allowed world oil reserves and they would peak by 2033
and
This means that we could use all of the allowed world tar sands and they would peak by 2014
or
This means that we could use all of the allowed world gas reserves and they would peak by 2038.
or
This means that if we used only the allowed world coal reserves as a fuel then we could use only 23% of them and this would peak by 2025.
World industry must therefore reduce to a 20%-23% level of production and consumption from 2015 when the current climate agreements are ratified to meet Global Climate temperature controls.
The effects of the proposed controls on temperature
In terms of global temperature 184GtC equates to 675 GtCO2 which equates to 87ppmv increase on 2011 current levels. This increases the potential maximum ppmv recorded from 400ppmv to 487 ppmv.
This allows for a maximum temperature increase of 2 to 3.47 deg C above current levels up to 2100.
This makes all of the world except Britain and Ireland, the Artic and the Antarctic likely to have temperatures which reach life threatening high temperatures each year.
This increase in temperature will effect migration, immigration, imports and exports, food, water, fuel reserves, economies, cultures and societies.
A Timeline for Renewable Energy
The above points can be related to a timescale to indicate the extreme compressed timescale in which these changes to our planet are occurring and will occur and when renewable energy will be needed
Zero
The beginning of Sol and Earth Time
4,540,000,000
Current era Sol and Earth Time
2013
Current year
World Population: 7,095,217,980
Measured Temperature base level
Measured CO2 atmospheric concentration 400 ppmv
Source: "Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark". BBC. 10 May 2013.
Source: "Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa". NOAA.2013.
2013
IPCC report for policymakers edition issued
2014
Peak World Tar Sands point for allowed reserves at 2011 production levels to meet IPCC report for policymaker edition 2013 recommendations
2015
Ratification of Climate Treaty to fix the amount of fossil fuels that can be extracted and used to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases including CO2 to achieve a maximum 2 deg C climate temperature rise.
Source: http://unfccc.int/meetings/unfccc_calendar/items/2655.php?year=2015
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/taking-international-action-to-mitigate-climate change/supporting-pages/negotiating-for-a-comprehensive-global-climate-change-agreement
2015-2017
Carbon bubble point where valuations of fossil fuel assets no longer achieve the investments placed in them due to the ratification of the Climate Treaty limiting the levels of fossil fuel extraction and use.
Source: Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets
2015 to 2050
Estimated available period of mineral resource extraction using fossil fuels on Earth.
2020
Estimated earliest Peak World oil resource point
34% Reduction in World fossil fuel use to comply with Climate Treaty
2025
Peak World Coal Reserves if only 23% of allowed world reserves are used at 2011 production levels to meet IPCC report for policymaker edition 2013 recommendations
2033
Peak World Oil allowed reserves point at 2011 production levels to meet IPCC report for policymaker edition 2013 recommendations
2038
Estimated furthest Peak World oil resource point
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
2038
Peak World Gas allowed reserves point at 2011 production levels to meet IPCC report for policymaker edition 2013 recommendations
2043
Estimated World gas Peak resource point
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
2050
Estimated World Population: 9,982,971,669 at 2013 growth rate
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
80% Reduction in World fossil fuel use to comply with Climate Treaty
2050
End of estimated available period of mineral resource extraction using fossil fuels on Earth.
2062
Estimated World oil resource depletion point at 2013 consumption levels
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
2070
Estimated World Peak coal resource point by production.
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
2074
Estimated World gas resource depletion point at 2013 consumption levels
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
2078
Estimated World tar sand resource depletion point at 2013 consumption levels
Source; "About Tar Sands".
2128
Estimated Peak point of fossil fuel reserves at 2013 consumption levels
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Estimated temperature rise of 4 deg C above 2013 levels
Estimated CO2 atmospheric concentration 584 ppmv
2130
Estimated World coal resource depletion point at 2013 consumption levels
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
2243
Estimated end of fossil fuel reserves
Estimated temperature rise of 6 deg C above 2013 levels
Estimated CO2 atmospheric concentration 768 ppmv
3670
Estimated end of all mineral resource on Earth due to depletion.
4,000,000,000
Estimated point when Milky Way Galaxy and Andromeda Galaxy collide.
6,000,000,000
Estimated period when Earth becomes uninhabitable due to sun expansion.
10,000,000,000
Estimated end of Sol and Earth Time
Ian K Whittaker
Website: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
30/09/2013
22/08/2016
14/10/2020
1080 words over 4 pages