2020 - 2050 The End of the Dependency Economy in Britain.
Island societies such as Britain are dependant economies that rely on global imports and exports to survive due to their limited energy, resource and environment.
The depletion of global energy reserves, natural resources, and environment are currently all contributing to increased global warming and also to the end of the dependency economies in island countries such as Britain.
This is an outline of the stages of the end of the dependency economy of Britain based on the current 2013 Blue Book information and associated sources. It indicates the social effects financial and Architectural effects of these changes.
The Paradox of the future Production and Consumption of energy in Britain
A Paradox is being created in the energy production and consumption of Britain.
As the population is increasing the production and consumption of energy is decreasing.
This policy is being followed in order to allow Britain to comply with its International Agreements relating to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty, the Earth Summit, in Rio de Janerio in 1992 and the following agreements including the recent Kyoto and Cancun Agreements on limiting the use of fossil fuel use to achieve a maximum 2 deg C global climate temperature increase. This obliges, in the case of Britain, a 34% reduction in its 1990 CO2 emission by 2020 and an 80% reduction in its 1990 CO2 emissions levels by 2050. That is an 80% reduction from 771.9 million tonnes of all greenhouse gases to 154.38 million tonnes of all greenhouse gases by 2050.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_the_United_Kingdom
To achieve these conditions the following is being implemented.
Production of Energy
Production of energy using fossil fuels is being reduced by 33.9% over 6 year time periods.
Source: Energy in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006 IEA October, crude oil p.11, coal p. 13 gas p. 15
Interpolating forward at the same rate gives a Zero Production of energy using fossil fuels by 2024.
This stops the ongoing CO2 increase occurring during extraction, distribution and manufacturing as well as providing a means of achieving the Kyoto Agreement target dates of a 34% reduction in Greenhouse Gases by 2020 and an 80% reduction in Greenhouse Gases by 2050.
Remaining reserves of fossil fuels and minerals in Britain will not be allowed to be extracted beyond these levels.
Consumption of Energy
Consumption of energy using fossil fuels is being reduced by 10% over 6 year time periods.
Source: Energy in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006 IEA October, crude oil p.11, coal p. 13 gas p. 15
Interpolating forward at the same rate gives a Zero Consumption of energy using fossil fuels by 2064.
This will be affected by the Production levels and is likely to be drawn back to between 2024 and 2050 as energy resources are depleted.
CO2 Emissions from Energy
The reduction in CO2 emissions is being reduced by 10% over 6 year time periods.
Source: Energy in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006 IEA October, crude oil p.11, coal p. 13 gas p. 15
Interpolating forward at the same rate gives a Zero CO2 emission from fossil fuels by 2059.
This will be affected by the Production levels and is likely to be drawn back to between 2024 and 2050 as energy resources are depleted.
This indicates a change in the economic structure of Britain to match these outputs and time dates. Allowing for a peak in world oil production and consumption around 2020 the British economy will be in a period of energy transition for 30 years up to 2050 as the dependency economy based on fossil fuels is replaced.
Since the UN climate agreements apply to all signatory countries; including countries Britain imports and exports to; the effects of a move away from fossil fuels will cause all countries to become dependant on there own energy sources to replace the previously imported fossil fuel sources. Imports and exports will therefore cease sometime between 2020 and 2050.
The Effects of Energy Depletion on the Sectors of the Current Economy.
Applying the percentage changes required to meet the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaties to the British Economy will cause a corresponding drop in the economy structure and each of its sectors.
These economy will also need to allow for an increase in population of 22% by 2050.
Applying a 34% reduction in the economy output by 2020 and an 80% reduction in the economy output by 2050 to each sector of the current 2013 economy the following results will be obtained.
The Components of the 2011 - 2013 Economy
There are the sectors in the British economy.
Government
Health
Education
Distribution and Transport
Hotel and Restaurant
Production / Manufacturing
Professional and Services
Real Estate.
Financial
Information and Communications
Construction
Other, Research and Development
Wholesale and Retail
Mining and Quarrying
Law and Order and Defense
Energy, Resource and Environment Stability
Agriculture
The 2020 – 2050 Government
The United Kingdom is moving through a process of devolution into separate countries under one sovereign. Consequently the use of the term United Kingdom has moved towards the use of the term Britain. The process may even produce a change in the flag of Britain if Scotland becomes independent following the referendum in 2014. Britain will then have 4 parliaments.
As the local resources of each settlement reduce implementing the policies of a centralized government may not be possible. Local policy decisions will have to be implemented to suit geographic seasonal considerations. Therefore the process towards localized government of each settlement will continue throughout the devolved form of Britain. Local tax systems will be needed that are linked to known, seasonal, resources. Imaginary, credit based money will end in favor of the re-establishment of a known, fixed, controllable, localized, money supply.
The money supply is likely to be made up of M0 and M1 money and little or no savings.
This allows a continuous, predictable flow of actual money, metal and paper currency, in the economy but not credit. Debts are likely to be cancelled or absorbed by the reduction in companies actually producing.
A method of maintaining the economic structure of the British economy with dwindling energy, resources, production and working hours would be to
Replace the wages paid to each citizen by a yearly allowance.
This allowance would initially equate to 41% of Gross Domestic Product; to fix it at the current levels.
This would allows for $2,323,000,000,000 or £1,465,615,141,942 GDP
Divide this by the total population from census say 77,000,000 in 2050
This allows for £19,033 per year allowance.
Less 41% for financing of sectors of the economy used by all citizens a sum of £7,803 per citizen.
This then allows for each citizen to spend £11,230 per year to live.
The citizens yearly allowance would be paid out by a card system to avoid the need to manufacture metal and paper money. This saves resources.
This creates an initial overall sum of money to cover the needs of the country and its population for 1 year.
This creates a way of allowing products to be paid for and manufactured before being purchased by each citizen.
This allows resources to be controlled prior to production.
The incentive to manufacture goods is still linked to the population but through seasonal available energy and resources and needs and not through unstable, unpredictable, wants and desires.
Employment and Unemployment become outdated descriptions of the use of human life.
Each year the allowance is recalculated for the whole country.
It is a form of rationing, treating the incentive system, including money, as a predictable resource.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Government Sector
This allows for a reduction in Government spending to
100% - 34% = 66% of GDP - Exports - Imports by 2020
66% x ($2.323 trillion - $481 billion - $646 billion)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
=$789,360,000,000 by 2020.
=£498,018,927,444 by 2020
This allows for a reduction in Government spending to
100% - 80% of GDP by 2050
20% x $789,360,000,000
$157,872,000,000 by 2050.
£99,603,785,488 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £1,294 per citizen
Applying the allowance system described above
This allows for £1,294 per year allowance.
Less 41% for financing of sectors of the economy used by all citizens a sum of £530 per citizen.
This then allows for each citizen to spend £764 per year to live.
Architecture Result
Administration will not be possible as a fixed Architecture within a settlement. It will be available as a list of edicts to be consulted over a communication system.
All of the buildings associated with it will become redundant due to energy, resource and financial depletion.
The 2020 – 2050 Health Sector
To allow the population to exist the starting point for a minimal health service could be the WHO Model Lists of Essential Medicines 2013.
This, as production, imports and exports reduce, will not be able to be maintained.
There will be a reduction in large hospitals due to energy, transport, storage requirements.
There will be an initial increase in local health centers.
This will be followed by an increase in mobile local doctors.
This will be followed by an increase in herbal medicine.
The end result is a mixture of this mobile provision and an increase in self treatment.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Health Sector
£104,026,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Health spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £104,026,000
£68,657,160 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Government spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £68,657,160
£13,731,432 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.18 per citizen
Architecture Result
The Health Service will not be possible as a fixed Architecture within a settlement. It will become mobile. It will be available as a list of edicts and assistance to be consulted over a communication system.
All of the buildings associated with it will become redundant due to energy, resource and financial depletion.
The 2020 – 2050 Education Sector
There will be a reduction in large schools due to energy, transport, storage requirement depletion.
This will be followed by an increase in local schools.
The final form of the sector is as a self education system via. a communication system as is currently common in outback Australia.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Education Sector
£84,556,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Education spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £84,556,000
£55,806,960 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Education spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £55,806,960
£11,161,392 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.14 per citizen
Architecture Result
Education will not be possible as a fixed Architecture within a settlement. It will become mobile. It will be available as a list of courses and assistance to be consulted over a communication system.
All of the buildings associated with it will become redundant due to energy, resource and financial depletion and the ease of replacement of the functions within a communications system.
Libraries will be retained as stockpiles of local information to allow the transfer from digital information to a written form to be accomplished before energy and resources deplete to far.
It may be that the medieval scriptorium area will form part of the library carrying out this function.
The transcription will initially be by printer, then by hand copying using vegetable inks or charcoal pencil writing implements.
Museums will remain and act as a repository for the scriptorium records of the settlement and also for the repository of its object collection. They will be located around the centre of the settlement.
Art Galleries will remain and act as part of the teaching system of the settlement. They will be located around the centre of the settlement.
Cinemas will become a redundant Architectural Form as they become replaced by the communications system.
Concert halls will become a redundant Architectural Form absorbed into a central basilica structure to be used seasonally by travelling artists.
The 2020 – 2050 Distribution, Transport Sector
There will be a decrease in road and rail use due to a reduction in energy and spare parts.
There will be an initial increase in car sharing.
There will be an initial increase in public transport.
There will be a re-use of former railway stations as bus interchanges.
Redundant roads and railway lines will be absorbed into each community as farm land.
There will be an increase in light aircraft public transport from fields and temporary control units.
There will be a decrease in mass transport airports use due to reduction in energy and spare parts.
There will be a re-use of former airports as bus interchanges.
Redundant airports will be absorbed into each community as farm land.
There will be an increase in river, canal and coastal shipping use as public transport.
There will be an increase in harbor and shipping facilities for food and transport acquisition.
The final location of all forms of distribution and transport will be localized around each settlement.
The maximum size of settlement influence will be controlled by walking distances.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Distribution, Transport Sector
£59,179,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Distribution, Transport spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £59,179,000
£39,058,140 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Distribution, Transport spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £39,058,140
£7,811,628 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.10 per citizen
Architecture Result
The current transport Architecture of airports, railway stations and motorways will reduce in number and then become redundant due to energy, resource and financial depletion.
They will all be absorbed as farmland.
The transport of goods will be within walking distances around each settlement.
The waterways require less energy input and so will last longer as transport networks.
The likelihood of flooding inland and changes to the form of the coast around Britain; caused by rising sea levels; will necessitate the use of shipping as a transport system.
The re-use of underground railway tunnels will be a major problem due to ground water intrusion.
The simplest re-use for them would be as water storage reservoirs.
The 2020 – 2050 Hotel and Restaurant Sector
Hotels and restaurants will reduce in size as energy depletes.
There will be an increase in hotel use to support countrywide travel by public transport.
These new hotels and restaurants will be placed along river, canal and coasts and be linked to food and transport acquisition.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Hotel and Restaurant Sector
£36,554,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Hotel and Restaurant spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £36,554,000
£24,125,640 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Hotel and Restaurant spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £24,125,640
£4,825,128 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.06 per citizen
Architecture Result
The current Hotel and restaurant Architecture as an isolated, specialist building will reduce in number. They will become population dwelling points all year round. Hotels will sell off parts of there buildings to the population as permanent dwellings. Others will become absorbed into each settlement area as the food processing and distribution points for the population.
The 2020 – 2050 Production / Manufacturing Sector
The Production and Manufacturing Sector will decrease to zero carbon energy use and so to minimal temporary production and minimal temporary employment. It will become active only when the need for it arises.
Each person will become a manufacturer for themselves.
Recycling and 3D printing of required items will become common.
Breweries will form part of the hotel and restaurant buildings due to the location near water resources.
Breweries will also act as water purification control systems.
The carbon capturing and re-use of CO2 from wood fuels may be a means of achieving a clean water source once the energy for the existing water purification systems reduces.
Foundry buildings will be re-established, probably using charcoal from a coppiced wood fuel source.
They will be in a settlement guild workshop area near the merchant centre in a basilica.
Mill buildings will be re-established, probably using water power from one of the original, re-opened historic water courses of each settlement, linked to a new dam and weir energy sources.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Production / Manufacturing Sector
£140,539,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Production / Manufacturing spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £140,539,000
£92,755,740 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Production / Manufacturing spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £92,755,740
£18,551,148 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.24 per citizen
Architecture Result
Between 2020 and 2050 the factory, the workplace and the distribution building will become redundant Architectural Forms.
Houses will incorporate plastic recycling machines and 3D printers linked to a battery storage source of energy and probably solar photovoltaic panel energy collection.
The 2020 – 2050 Professional and Services Sector
The period of time will see the end of specialist national companies.
It will see the localization of all professional services around settlements.
Each person will be able to contact professional help via the communications system.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Professional and Services Sector
77.8% of GDP = £1,807,294,000,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: "Index of Services, April 2013". ONS. 26 April 2006.
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Professional and Services Sector spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £1,807,294,000,000
£1,192,814,040,000 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Professional and Services Sector spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £1,192,814,040,000
£238,562,808,000 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £3,098 per citizen
Architecture Result
Offices will become a redundant Architectural form.
They will be converted into additional accommodation for an increasing population.
The 2020 – 2050 Real Estate Sector
There will be a reduction in national values for property.
There will be a reduction then loss of the commercial sector of real estate.
There will be a reduction then loss of the retail sector of real estate.
There will be a re-valuation of the actual cost of a property to match each settlements financial, energy, resource, environmental conditions.
Mortgages will be over several generations of occupancy.
Migration will alter the size of existing settlements.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Real Estate Sector
£143,641,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Real Estate spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £143,641,000
£94,803,060 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Real Estate spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £94,803,060
£18,960,612 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.25 per citizen
Architecture Result
New build housing will become very rare.
Conversion and Refurbishment will become the primary Architectural form of building use.
Houses will become part of all buildings. Those of greatest value will be near the central resource areas of each settlement.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Sector
There will be a reduction in international bank links directly to customer.
There will be a re-introduction of local bank links to customer.
There will be local banks holding local tax money.
There will be a local money supply of a local fixed yearly credit per person.
It will be the end of a wants and desires economy of consumerism.
It will be the introduction of a known, seasonal, economy of potential value from local population, resources and energy sources only. What do we need ? What do we have ? What can be provided ?
It will be the end of credit and imaginary money.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Financial Sector
£116,363,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Financial spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £116,363,000
£76,799,580 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Financial spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £76,799,580
£15,359,916 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.19 per citizen
Architecture Result
Financial companies will be located in converted and refurbished property. The Architectural form of prestige building associated with a new ‘iconic’ forms will end and be replaced by an historical reference form maintaining the principles of stability in an age of increasing uncertainty.
Skyscrapers in Britain will become a redundant Architectural form at an increasing rate due to the energy cost in constructing, running them and converting them.
The existing skyscrapers in Britain will remain and become multi-use and multi- tenant forms of building.
The Finance houses will move to the middle of each settlement near to the goods storage and distribution areas.
Stock Exchanges will remain but become local trading basilicas surrounded by the merchants houses, shops, recycling areas and craft guild workshops.
The 2020 – 2050 Information and Communications Sector
There will be an initial ongoing reduction in energy to power mass communications.
There will be a reduction in national broadcasting.
There will be a reduction in television use.
There will be a reduction in advertising to a local level.
There will be an increase in low energy, crystal powered, radio communications use that can use the energy from the radio signals to power itself.
There will be an increase in mobile rather than fixed communications.
There will be a reduction in internet links to a local internet server in each community.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Information and Communications Sector
£25,098,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Information and Communications spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £25,098,000
£16,564,680 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Information and Communications spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £16,564,680
£3,312,936 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.04 per citizen
Architecture Result
Communication servers will be located in converted and refurbished property at the centre of each settlement.
The communications system for each settlement will be isolated from a national network by security systems.
The communications system will utilize existing phone and wireless communication systems.
The communications system will include weather monitoring and reporting systems.
The communications system will include the postal system for letters initially but when the energy levels reduce the postal system will become an independent critical part of the settlement.
The post will be linked to a pony-express form of delivery.
Horses being a simple, self replicating, low energy form of transport that produce bio-energy and that can be easily recycled.
The 2020 – 2050 Construction Sector
There will be a reducing Construction Sector due to an ongoing reduction in materials, products, energy, fuel, machinery and spare parts.
There will be an increase in the rationed use of locally available natural materials
There will be a decrease in new build.
There will be an increase in conversion and refurbishment of existing buildings.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Construction Sector
£86,789,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Construction spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £86,789,000
£57,280,740 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Construction spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £57,280,740
£11,456,148 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.15 per citizen
Architecture Result
Architectural language forms will stagnate, then be degraded by conversion and recycled materials. Our historic cities will be eroded.
This is all to the good.
The new form of Construction must be one of consideration before action. Acknowledge history then see it only as a resource and adapt it to new needs.
The new Architectural language that comes out of this recycling era will not be low technology but the highest value technology available.
Our settlements will be reformed.
The 2020 – 2050 Other, Research and Development Sector
This has been a variable in the economy pattern.
Post 2020 it will become the research and development (R&D) part of the economy.
The educational establishments will take up the R & D initiative and then develop it through education as with the current American economy.
The eventual form of R&D is over the communication system between anyone in the population that has an idea or access to a resource that can assist all of the settlement.
The convention centre will become defunct as an Architectural Form.
Religious buildings will remain until the energy levels reduce to the point of effecting the individual and the original community dies out. The function of these buildings will then become as meeting points within the settlement. These will be consolidated at the settlement centre and become a seasonal gathering area. The remaining religious Architectural forms at this time will become redundant and be recycled for materials.
Fertilizers will become scarce as petroleum resources deplete. Nitrogen can be extracted from the air or even substituted organically. It should be allowed for existing Crematoria and Graveyards to become a recycling source for organic remains that can be used to keep the community alive as fertilizers.
Leisure facilities will become temporary, seasonal areas, linked to the arrival of markets and fairs in the settlement.
The 2020 – 2050 Wholesale and Retail Sector
There will be a reducing wholesale and retail sector due to energy reduction and also a reduction in distribution and transport.
The retail area density will consolidate around the centre of each settlement.
Large supermarket chains will split up into multiple sector units in order to fill the large buildings they occupy.
The large superstores will eventually be abandoned.
Retail parks will be abandoned.
Large storage arcades will be used seasonally as goods arrive.
The old permanent storage sheds will become a redundant Architectural Form.
The storage arcades will be located by recycling centres around a basilica and stock exchange at the centre of the settlement.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Wholesale and Retail Sector
£151,785,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Wholesale and Retail spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £151,785,000
£100,178,100 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Wholesale and Retail spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £100,178,100
£20,035,620 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.26 per citizen
Architecture Result
Between 2020 and 2050 the mass retail building will become a redundant Architectural Form.
Houses will incorporate retail units at ground level.
Seasonal temporary Markets will occupy the settlement centre possibly around an arcaded basilica structure where all of the merchant areas are located.
The 2020 – 2050 Mining and Quarrying Sector
There will be a reduction in mining and quarrying as energy resources reduce and production reduces.
There will be a reduction in quotas for the maximum permitted mineral extraction.
There will be a closure of mining and quarrying facilities.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Mining and Quarrying Sector
£31,380,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Mining and Quarrying spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £31,380,000
£20,710,800 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Mining and Quarrying spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £20,710,800
£4,142,160 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.05 per citizen
Architecture Result
Between 2020 and 2050 the mass extraction, civil engineering building will become a redundant Architectural Form.
The 2020 – 2050 Law and Order and Defense Sector
The standing armed forces of Britain will be reduced to allow for reduced energy, resources and manufacturing.
Local militia forces will be established at each settlement.
Local law and order police forces at each settlement will be linked to the militia.
Local courts will be established.
Local prisons will be established.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Law and Order and Defense Sector
£70,400,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Law and Order and Defense spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £70,400,000
£46,464,000 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Law and Order and Defense spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £46,464,000
£9,292,800 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.12 per citizen
Architecture Result
Between 2020 and 2050 the military, militia, building, will be a new Architectural form integrated into each settlement. It will be located near to the communications, food, water, health, energy, and recycling Architectural forms.
Skyscrapers will become multi-use and may house the communications, energy, resource, law and order, fire, post and defense parts of the settlement.
This has an historic link back to the stronghold, castle and motte and bailey forms of the Medieval era.
Larger offshore structures such as lighthouses, drilling platforms and rigs will be retained and utilized as coastal defense points.
Defensive patrols will give way to defensive barriers and then to defensive walls around the entrances to the settlement.
Energy resources will need to be protected. Individuals, communities and countries protect their energy survival ability even when it means fighting outside there national boundaries.
In such a situation in Britain it is conceivable that in order to allow its population to survive a settlement would use any means necessary to ensure its resources were not endangered.
Source: ‘Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.’
Source: State of the Union Address (January 23, 1980) Jimmy Carter http://millercenter.org/president/speeches/detail/3404
The 2020 – 2050 Energy, Resource and Environment Stability Sector
Low fossil fuel energy use then zero fossil fuel energy use will be implemented.
The national grid generation of energy and distribution will be decommissioned.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Energy, Resource and Environment Stability Sector
£33,289,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Energy, Resource and Environment Stability spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £33,289,000
£21,970,740 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Energy, Resource and Environment Stability spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £21,970,740
£4,394,148 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.06 per citizen
Architecture Result
Localized generation, at each dwelling level will be implemented.
New battery storage at each dwelling will be implemented.
New passive energy forms will be developed.
Power stations will become a redundant Architectural Form.
Petrol stations will become a redundant Architectural Form.
The 2020 – 2050 Agriculture Sector
Agriculture in Britain uses approximately. 70% of the total land area,
This will need to feed the total current population and also an extra 22% of population by 2050.
This amounts to an approximate total population of 77,000,000 people in Britain.
Britain instead of producing less than 60% of its food must produce 100% of its food solely for its own population.
Forestry needs to increase to allow Britain to become self sufficient in timber products.
Freshwater collection needs to increase to allow for the increased population.
Food growing at each dwelling will be established
Water collection, treatment and potable water storage and grey water treatment and storage will be established at each dwelling.
Farms must achieve this whilst reducing the amount of machinery used since they will not have the fossil fuel energy sources to power the machinery.
The 2020 – 2050 Financial Variation to the Agriculture Sector
£9,438,000 Gross Value Added GVA to economy in 2013
Source: The Blue Book 2013 ONS
The rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Agriculture spending to
100%-34% = 66% of GVA by 2020
66% x £9,438,000
£6,229,080 by 2020.
This rate of CO2 reduction allows for a reduction in Agriculture spending to
100% - 80% of GVA by 2050
20% x £6,229,080
£1,245,816 by 2050 at a population level of 77,000,000 this allows for £0.02 per citizen
Architecture Result
Post 2020 if you want to imagine a farm. Imaging an industrial park combined with a retail park, combined with a farm of the post energy depletion area.
The modern farm will have a number of farmhouses, cow, pig, fowl, poultry, fish storage, animal feed barns, a dairy, a cereal store, a fruit store, a vegetable store, a bio-fuel plant, a bio-pesticide plant, a bio-fertilizer plant, a solar energy plant, wind generation plant, battery storage and recharging areas, a water collection, purification and storage plant, a sewage collection, processing and storage plant, forest and coppice areas of woodland, pasture land , grass land, rotational crop areas, water sources, lakes, wildfowl sanctuaries, bee-keeping, honey production, butchery areas, hide production areas, fat storage, soap and candle production areas, paper production areas, pencil, ink , medicinal production areas, metal smelting, tool fabrication and sharpening anything that the surrounding society needs and the natural resources at the farm can be developed into, stored and distributed without exhausting them.
Which parts of the Country will have the most value ?
This part of the analysis is based on the principle that those counties currently in 2013 providing the most gross value to the economy will have the greatest amount of energy, resources and population available to prolong there survival or allow a transition to the new 2020 - 2050 low energy and resource economy.
The areas in order of gross value are
Greater London, South East, East, South West, East Midlands, North West, West Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, North East, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countries_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_GDP_per_capita
This indicates a migration pattern to the south of the country.
Comparing the same areas against climate change in terms of areas where possible life threatening temperatures above 40 deg C are possible then results are.
England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records
The data indicate that the paradox being created in the Energy Production and Consumption of Britain also has a migratory effect.
Areas of the North West Coast, Norfolk, The Severn Estuary, Bristol Channel and the Thames Estuary will all have land lost to sea level rise.
The choice of location for economic survival for the current population in England would be the south of Britain.
Paradoxically moving to the south of England will also increases the chances of life threatening temperatures above 40 deg C being encountered.
The choice of location for economic survival in Wales would also be the south of Britain.
Paradoxically this also increases the chances of life threatening temperatures above 40 deg C being encountered.
The choice of location for economic survival for the current population in Scotland would be to stay in Scotland.
This location will also increases the chances of avoiding life threatening temperatures above 40 deg C being encountered.
The choice of location for economic survival for the current population in Northern Ireland are very low and dependant therefore on individual not community circumstances.
Ireland will however become the location of choice as climate change temperatures increase since it is the best location for avoiding life threatening temperatures above 40 deg C being encountered.
The projected population movement is therefore from 2020 to the south and then as 2050 approaches to the north and west and into Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This is the outline of a new form of Britain in terms of Social, Financial, Architectural and Climate changes between 2020 and 2050.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
10/09/2013
14/10/2020
6284 words over 13 pages