Bread
In our own age when the empires of consumerism are being replaced by self-reliance and recycling what is the future of bread as a food product up to 2050.
This is the analysis of bread in 2013.
What Bread Is
Bread is a basic staple food of humanity.
Bread is a product of such complexity that it requires a consumerist, empire to produce it.
Bread is a cultural icon.
Bread is part of religious ritual.
Bread is a method of pacification of a society by an administration.
Bread is one of the first things a hungry human would ask for after requesting water.
Bread Need
World bread Need = allow 6 slices of bread per day per person
Source: http://www.bupa.co.uk/individuals/health-information/directory/p/hi-portion-size
Source: http://www.heart.org/HEARTORG/GettingHealthy/NutritionCenter/HealthyDietGoals/Suggested-Servings-from-Each-Food-Group_UCM_318186_Article.jsp
= allow 20 slices per 800g loaf
= allow 3 days per loaf per person
= 2 bread per week per person
= 52 x (7,095,217,980 population)
= 122,983,778,320 loaves x 2
= approx. 246,000,000,000 loaves / year
Bread Production
World bread production = 126,000,000 tonnes
Source: http://www.bsimagazine.com Allow 450 grams, of flour per loaf
Allows for 278,000,000,000 loaves of bread
This gives a world surplus = 32,000,000,000 loaves / year
The world appears to produce sufficient bread to feed the current population.
There is also a world surplus of bread.
Bread manufacture also requires resource, energy and environment input. This varies with country due to population density, eating habits, cultural habits, resource, energy and environment availability and condition.
The resource, energy and environment input can also be examined through the wheat production system in Britain for comparison.
Bread Production in Britain
Britain bread production in 2013 = 3,285,000,000 / 63,395,574
Source: Flour advisory bureau 2012 = 52 loaves per person /yr
= 1 loaf / person /week production rate
Britain produces enough bread for its population to receive the recommended calorie intake of carbohydrates from bread.
The resource, energy and environment input to achieve this can also be examined.
Bread Manufacture - Land
Typical farm size in Britain = 900 hectares
= 9,000,000 m2
Typical crop yield = 7.51 tons of wheat / hectare
= 1 ton of wheat / 10,000 m2
= 1,000,000 g of wheat / 10,000 m2
= 1 g of wheat / 0.01m2
= 1g of wheat / 10mm
= 450g of wheat / 4500mm
= 5m2 per 800g loaf flour content
This allows for a typical farm yield
of wheat = 6759 tons of wheat per 900 hectares
Typical number of loaves per
hectare/year = 16,666 loaves per hectare
= 1.6 loaves per m2 per year
This allows for a typical output per farm = 14,999,400 loaves per farm per year
Typical flour output in Britain = 450g flour per 800g loaf
Source: www.thefreshloaf.com = for 3,285,000,000 loaves / year x 450 g
= 1,478,250,000,000 g / year
= 1,478,250 metric tons of flour / year
This approximates a land use in Britain of 200,000 hectares, 2000 sq km, to produce all of the loaves required.
The total land area of Britain is 241,930 sq km 23.23% of this is arable land, 56,200 sq km of this only 0.2% is permanent crops, 11,240 sq km.
Therefore the wheat production could occupy 18% of the farming land use for 10 months of the year.
This is a large proportion of the available land in use per year to achieve this staple crop.
This indicates that a large part of the national diet may be at risk due to weather conditions or disease.
There are also financial issues as well as health costs with this density of production.
Allowing for a price of land per acre at £10,000, 0.004046856 sq km, £2,470,000
per sq km, over 2000 sq km there is a total cost of £4,940,000,000 / year land value for this particular crop.
This when equated to the production
of 3,285,000,000 loaves per year = £1.50 per loaf / year.
It is evident that the issues with bread production in Britain are also related to production issues. The cost of a single loaf of bread is not covering the initial or ongoing costs. The bread must be produced in a mass output, consumerist economic method, production line system annually to begin to recover costs.
Bread Manufacture - Rent and Finance
If the land is occupied for 10 months of the year to produce a wheat crop then this necessitates the use of energy and resources for that time period as well.
Rent and finance costs for a typical farm = £15 / t - £20 / t
= 6759 x £20 = £135,180 per farm
Seed costs = £9/ t
= 6759 x £9 = £60,831
Fertilizer = £27 / t
= 6759 x £27 = £182,493
Fungicide = £13.60 / t
= 6759 x £13.6 = £91,923
Crop Yield = 7.5t / ha
Machinery = £37/ t
= 6759 x £37 = £250,083
Fuel Costs = £10 / t
= 6759 x £67 = £67,590
Plough and harrow = 110 – 120 litres / ha
= 900 x 120 = 108,000 litres
Tractor = 4.7hrs / ha = 6 months
Source: For costs Sentry's 4 Thought database 2012. Farmers Weekly December 2012
Total cost for a typical farm = £788,100 /year / 900 hectare farm
Allow for 1 year for whole bread process = 1 year
Cost / tonne of wheat / flour in Britain = £131.70 / t
= £131.70 / t x 1,478,250
Total wheat flour cost in Britain/ year = £194,685,525 total wheat flour cost
This gives a cost per loaf in farming = 3,285,000,000 / 194,685,525
= £16.87 per loaf
This again is a cost value that is far beyond that acceptable at a consumer level.
After the rent and finance farm elements there is the milling element of Bread to be considered.
Bread Manufacture - Flour Milling
Cost for milling in Britain per ton = £182/ton average in UK Oct 2013
= £182 per 100,000 grams
= 18200p per 5495 g
= 1p per 3 g
= 267p per 800 g
Source: http://www.farming.co.uk/prices/wheat_barley_osr/
This gives a cost per loaf in milling = £182/t x 1,478,250
= £269,041,500
= 3,285,000,000 / 269,041,500
= £12.21 per loaf / year
This again is a cost value that is far beyond that acceptable at a consumer level.
After the milling element there is the production element of Bread to be considered.
Bread Manufacture - Bread Production
The Bread making cost per loaf in production can be estimated from a built example of a modern factory.
Warburtons, Tuscany Park, Wakefield dates from 2005.
The factory cost £60,000,000.
The factory took over 1 year to build.
The factory occupies an area 1.25 hectares of land.
It has a workspace area of 21,565m²
This would allow for a space of 1 operative per 48m2
This would allow for 450 employees,
The factory output is intended to produce 2,000,000 loaves and 500,000 packets of rolls a week.
Source: http://www.foodprocessing-technology.com/projects/warburtons-super/
This gives a bread factory cost/ loaf = £60,000,000 / 2,000,000 loaves
= £30/loaf
This again is a cost value that is far beyond that acceptable at a consumer level.
Bread Manufacture - Time
The whole bread making process in Britain is seasonal.
It runs as a process from November to August.
This allows for a 10 month production period.
This places the potential crop initially in poor weather conditions, necessary hot conditions for germination at the mid process and damp, poor conditions when the wheat is to be harvested.
It is a high risk method of crop production.
It is a traditional, seasonal, timescale.
From the previous analysis it can be seen to be outdated and energy, resource and environment intensive.
New methods of production can be achieved by sheltering the crop, by hydroponics, by indoor production.
The milling process can add about one month to the timescales per production.
The energy intensive bread production can take only a few hours per loaf but is operated twenty four hours to meet consumer demand and cover production costs by mass output of product.
Supplies of wheat are therefore needed to arrive as imports into Britain to supplement the 10 months between harvests.
Each loaf of bread can be thought of as a 1 year process from land clearing to consumer use.
This again is a time cost value that is far beyond that acceptable at a consumer level.
Bread Manufacture - Energy
Energy is in every part of the Bread production process.
Bread making requires = 18MJ/kg = 5kWh/kg = 2kWh/loaf
Source: The Federation of Bakers factsheet No 17 = 3,285,000,000 x 2kWh/loaf
Energy needed in 2013 for a population of
63,395,574 and 3,285,000,000 loaves / yr = 6,570,000,000 kWh /yr
Baking requires = 0.5 hour at 2kWh
= 2 kWh, 0.17p/day standing charge
= 365 x 0.17p
= £0.17/loaf, 0.15p /kWh incl vat.
= 0. 15p x 2kWh
This gives a baking cost in energy terms of = £0.47/loaf
This is a cost value that is far beyond that acceptable at a consumer level.
Conclusions
This gives a total cost for the production of one loaf per year in Britain of £61.05
The current sales value of one loaf in Britain is £0.85
This requires 72 loaves to be produced and sold before the process begins to repay its land, cost, time and energy inputs.
This is currently thought of as economic but all of the costs are required to be paid out before any product is produced. This with a long production process reduces the amount paid back to each stage of the production system putting stage each into debt for at least another year before they even receive a percentage of the consumer retail cost payment..
This consumerist theory pushes the whole production system to increase production of the initial product to allow a mass production of the product to offset the variance in costs, time, payback and profit.
The economy is set up to produce 1 loaf of bread per week in Britain bread in 2013. This amounts to some 3,285,000,000 loaves.
The future energy, resource and environment depletion associated with the control of climate change will change this economic policy permanently.
The energy needed in 2013 for a population of 63,395,574 and 3,285,000,000 loaves / yr is 6,570,000,000 kWh /yr.
Allowing for 34% reduction in energy in 2020 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by the reduction in fossil fuels below 1990 levels this changes the potential output of the bread making system to
= 34% x 6,570,000,000 kWh /yr
= 4,336,200,000 kWh/yr / 2kwh per loaf
= 2,168,100,000 loaves /yr / for a population of 63,746,151
= 34 loaves per person / yr
Allowing for 80% reduction in energy in 2050 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by a reduction in fossil fuels below 1990 levels this changes the potential output of the bread making system to
= 867,240,000 kWh/yr / 2kwh per loaf
= 433,620,000 loaves / yr / population 77,000,000
= 5 loaves per person / yr
These changes cannot be compensated for by the individual in their own garden as with many other crops.
For a 52 loaves / year supply each person would need approx. 83 m2 of crop space and 20 m2. of storage, production and baking a total 100m2 / person extra in the UK.
Therefore to grow enough wheat for the whole population there is insufficient space in their own garden areas.
Allowing for a standard terraced back garden with the correct farming conditions and 20m2 approx. 30 loaves a year could be produced on paper but this is unlikely due to the inexperience of the population and their reliance on the current consumerism methods of production and output.
Therefore the bread making process will drastically change and with it farming methods throughout Britain between 2020 and 2050.
Ian K Whittaker
Website:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
21/11/2013
14/10/2020
1987 words over 6 pages.