The City Density Myth.
This essay tests the theory that resources, energy, waste and space are saved when a city increases in density of population per square metre.
The issues can be stated in relation to population increase since this is a known factor for the future up to 2100 as stated in the following data.
World Population 2015 = 7,000,000,000
Source: "UN Press Release: World population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050 with most growth in developing regions, especially Africa" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. June 13, 2013. Retrieved March 16, 2015.
World Population 2050 = 8,300,000,000 to 10,900,000,00
Source: "World Population Prospects, the 2012 Revision – "Low variant" and "High variant" values". UN. 2012. Retrieved June 15, 2013.
World Population 2100 = 9,300,000,000 and 12,600,000,000
Source: Carrington, Damien (September 18, 2014). "World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise". The Guardian. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
Source: Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.; Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. (September 14, 2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science (AAAS). doi:10.1126/science.1257469. ISSN 1095-9203. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
World Population 2150 = 3,200,000,000 and 24,800,000,000
Source: "Key Findings". Long-Range Population Projections (PDF). Proceedings of the United Nations Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections (New York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2003. Retrieved July 3, 2010.
Note this last figure also assumes a higher death rate.
The progression is therefore to an increased world population.
The population of cities can therefore be examined in this context and also the resources, energy, waste and space related to them.
If the population of a city increases the amount of people in it increase.
If a population of a city increases the amount of resources used by the population increases.
If a population of a city increases the amount of energy generated for the nation containing the city and not stored remains the same or increases to allow for the building and running of the new city.
If a population of a city increases the amount of resources extracted, transported turned into products and waste produced increases to allow each person in the population to have products any time they require them.
If a population of a city increases the amount of space in the city increases to house the population. This can be done by increasing the density of population per existing land area.
The total land area of a city can therefore be stated to be the total land area to house the total population as if it was on one level. It is irrelevant if each plot of land is in an apartment tower block or a single storey house. Each plot of land is registered separately.
Therefore the actual land area used in a city increases as population increases.
So population, resource use, energy generated, waste produced, and space use increase when a city reduces in size but increases in density of population per square metre.
Therefore increasing city density is not a solution to reducing resource, energy, waste, and space depletion to allow for population increase.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
13/05/2015
14/10/2020
563 words over 2 pages