Article 232 - Architectural Change. Europe Pre-Brexit 2017 and Post Brexit 2019 to 2100.

Architectural Change. Europe Pre-Brexit 2017 and Post Brexit 2019 to 2100.

Theory

Europe will have to evolve from a linear economy into a circular economy after Brexit to allow for

the following four issues.

- The departure of the UK from the EU after Brexit on 29 March 2019 reducing the current EU Membership of 28 countries to 27.
- Adaptation to climate change.
- The end of a fossil fuel based economy between the years 2030 and 2050.
- Ongoing environment, resource and energy depletion up to the year 2100 driven by increasing populations.

Definitions

In the scope of this essay the following definitions apply.

Linear Economy

‘Linear "take, make, dispose" industrial processes and the lifestyles that feed on them deplete finite reserves to create products that end up in landfills or in incinerators.’

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_from_the_linear_model

Circular Economy

‘A circular economy is a regenerative system in which resource input and waste, emission, and energy leakage are minimised by slowing, closing, and narrowing material and energy loops. This can be achieved through long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and recycling.This is in contrast to a linear economy which is a 'take, make, dispose' model of production.’

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_fr

Method

This essay establishes the current status of the EU countries by examination of each country’s Population, Land Area, Density of Population, Exports, Imports, Main Exports Country, Main Import Country, Public Debt, Energy Generation, Energy Generation from Fossil Fuels, Energy Generation from Renewables, Energy Produced and Energy Consumed.

Where possible the data is also reduced to a per capita level.

Conclusions are then drawn.

Data

Population

The total population of the EU is 511,524,077 people.

The EU has many countries with very low populations.

4 of the EU Countries make up 54% of the ttl EU population.

24 of the EU countries make up the remaining 46% of the ttl EU population.

The smallest population of the EU member states is in Iceland. 0.07% of the ttl.

The largest population of the EU members states is in Germany. 15.76% of the ttl.

In terms of population numbers the EU is not in balance.

Land Area

The total land area of the EU is 4,362,580 km².

9 of the EU Countries make up 75% of the ttl. land area.

19 of the EU Countries make up 25% of the ttl land area.

The smallest land area is Malta. 0.01% of the ttl.

The largest land area is France. 15% of the ttl.

In terms of land area per country the EU is not in balance.

Population Density

The average population density of the EU is 175 people per km².

The smallest population density is in Iceland. 3 people per km².

The largest population density is in Malta.1318 people per km².

12 Countries have a population density below 100 per km².

15 Countries have a population density over 100 per km².

1 Country; Malta; has a population density over a thousand per km².

In terms of population density the EU is not in balance.

Exports

The total exports of the EU amount to 4,971,856,000,000.

The smallest exports are undertaken by Malta.0.05% of the ttl exports.

The largest exports are undertaken by Germany. 27% of the ttl exports.

5 of the EU Countries make up 64% of the ttl. exports.

11 of the EU Countries make up less than 1% each of the ttl exports.

12 of the EU Countries make up 1% to 6% each of the ttl exports.

In terms of exports the EU is not in balance.

Imports

The total imports of the EU amount to 4,749,458,000,000.

The smallest imports are undertaken by Malta.0.10% of the ttl imports.

The largest imports are undertaken by Germany. 21.5% of the ttl imports.

5 of the EU Countries make up 61.84% of the ttl. imports.

11 of the EU Countries make up less than 1% each of the ttl imports.

12 of the EU Countries make up 1% to 7% each of the ttl imports.

In terms of imports the EU is not in balance.

Main Exporting Country.

Germany is the main exporting country to 16 out of the 28 EU Countries. 57% of the ttl.

The exports of the EU are dominated by 1 country. Germany.

Main Importing Country.

Germany is the main importing country to 19 out of the 28 EU Countries. 68% of the ttl.

The imports of the EU are dominated by 1 country. Germany.

Main Exports outside EU.

The USA is the main exporting country outside of the EU to 3 out of 28 EU Countries.

Russia is the second main exporting country outside of the EU to 1 out of the 28 EU Countries.

In terms of exports outside the EU the EU is limited to exports below that of Germany.

Main Imports outside EU.

The main imports to all EU Countries are all from other EU Countries.

In terms of imports outside the EU the EU is limited to imports below that of Germany.

Public Debt % of Gross Domestic Product.

In this essay Public Debt is ‘the cumulative total of all government borrowings less repayments that are denominated in a country's home currency. ‘

All of the EU member countries have Public Debt.

The country with the smallest Public Debt % is Estonia. 9.5%.

The country with the largest Public Debt % is Greece. 179.4%.

5 of the EU Countries have Public Debt % over 100%.

13 of the EU Countries have Public Debt % over 50%.

10 of the EU Countries have Public Debt % over between 9.5 and 50%.

Allowing for Public Debt = Public Expenditure – Public Revenues all of the EU Countries are operating a linear economy model. They have to move towards a circular economy.

Those economies with more that 100% Public Debt % have economies purely based on debt being considered as infinite investment.

It is possible other countries in the EU consider that lending money to EU member countries to allow them to pay off existing debts is an investment rather than an economic indicator of a failing linear economic model particularly since the countries lending the money are already in debt to each other to allow their economies to operate.

Infinite investment will not be possible up to the year 2100.

Energy Generation

The total energy generation in the EU Countries amounts to 973,600,000 kW/yr.

This amounts to energy generation of 1.90 kW/yr/person.

The smallest energy generation is in Malta. 670,000 kW/yr

The largest energy generation is in Germany. 204,100,000 kW/yr.

5 of the EU Countries have each energy generation below 1% of the ttl energy generation of the EU.

13 of the EU Countries have each energy generation below 10% of the ttl energy generation of the EU.

4 of the EU Countries have each energy generation below 10% to 21% of the ttl energy generation of the EU.

In terms of energy generation the EU is not in balance.

Fossil Fuel

All of the EU Countries have energy generation dependant of the burning of fossil fuels.

The lowest use of fossil fuels is in Iceland. 4% of their energy generation.

The highest use of fossil fuels is in Malta. 89% of their energy generation.

2 of the EU Countries have fossil fuel use below 10% for their total energy generation.

15 of the EU Countries have fossil fuel use below 50% for their total energy generation.

11 of the EU Countries have fossil fuel use between 50% and 89% for their total energy generation.

This means all of the current EU Countries energy generation assists in the output of greenhouse gases and so assists in climate change and global warming.

When fossil fuels are phased between 2030 and 2050 all of the EU Countries will have to alter their energy generation method over to renewable energy.

Renewables

All of the EU Countries have some form of energy generation from renewable energy.

The lowest use of renewable energy is in Slovenia. 2% of their energy generation.

The highest use of renewable energy is in Denmark. 54% of their energy generation.

2 of the EU Countries have renewable energy use below 10% for their total energy generation.

24 of the EU Countries have renewable energy use below 50% for their total energy generation.

2 of the EU Countries have renewable energy use between 50% and 54% for their total energy generation.

The current level of renewable energy generation in the EU is; at best; only 54%; in 1 country out of 28.

Half of the energy produced and consumed in that particular country.

All of the EU countries will; unless they expand their renewable energy generation; have to drop their power generation to less than they use in 2017/2018.

This in turn means less energy production, less energy consumption, less manufacturing, less employment, less products, less transport, less heating, less lighting for each person in the EU.

This would end the existing linear economies of the EU Countries.

Energy Produced

All of the EU Countries produce energy.

The lowest production of energy is in Luxembourg. 0.02% of the ttl EU energy production.

The highest production of energy is in Germany. 19.61% of the ttl EU energy production.

12 of the EU Countries have energy production below 1% of the ttl EU energy production.

13 of the EU Countries have energy production below 10% of the ttl EU energy production.

3 of the EU Countries have energy production between 10% and 19.61% of the ttl EU energy production.

The energy production is an average of 5,867kWh/yr/person.

The majority of the EU Countries produce very little of the ttl energy.

In terms of energy production the EU is not in balance.

Energy Consumed

All of the EU Countries consume energy.

The lowest consumption of energy is in Malta. 0.07% of the ttl EU energy consumption .

The highest consumption of energy is in Germany. 18.33% of the ttl EU energy consumption .

10 of the EU Countries have energy consumption below 1% of the ttl EU energy consumption .

14 of the EU Countries have energy consumption below 10% of the ttl EU energy consumption .

3 of the EU Countries have energy consumption between 10.54% and 18.33% of the ttl EU energy consumption.

The energy consumption is an average of 5,483kWh/yr/person.

A minority of 3 of the EU Countries consume most of the energy the EU produces.

In terms of energy consumption the EU is not in balance.

Conclusions

Europe has not yet evolved from an unbalanced linear economy into a circular economy.

It must achieve this after Brexit to allow for the following.

- The departure of the UK from the EU after Brexit on 29 March 2019 reducing the current EU Membership of 28 countries to 27.
- Adaptation to climate change.
- The end of a fossil fuel based economy between the years 2030 and 2050.
- Ongoing environment, resource and energy depletion up to the year 2100 driven by increasing populations.

Comparing each EU country it can be stated that currently in 2017/2018 Europe must inevitably change its nature despite Brexit. It must evolve into a totally new form of social, economic and renewable political entity that has not previously existed in human history.

Britain must reform itself into a circular state outside of the outdated linear relationships of the EU to survive the same issues.

Ian K Whittaker

Websites:

https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles

Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com

11/01/2018

14/10/2020

1914 words over 5 pages

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