2013 World Issues
To create Architecture you must sense the environment and establish its condition. Then you must examine your previous sensory knowledge of the same conditions and provide a communication of possibilities.
This does not need a client. It should be constant. It is a human responsibility.
The knowledge is however needed to be examined without hypocrisy.
The intention of ecology is not to save the planets local environment or indeed to safe guard the future of the Earth. These are beyond the control of humans.
The Earth will endure.
The intention is to save humankind.
This is what ecology is.
This is why we are now asking questions about energy, resource and environmental depletion.
These are the sensed problems confronting the resolution of the interlinked issues of energy, resource and environmental depletion. Each part of the problem is listed and then its technological solutions and social effects described.
Global Population Increase
World Population: 7,095,217,980
World population increase annually: 1.1% 78,047,397
World Birth Rate 18.9 births / 1,000 population: 134,099,601
World Death Rate 7.9 deaths / 1,000 population: 56,052,214
World population by 2050 at same increase annually: 1.1%
9,982,971,669
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
There are already to many human beings on the planet.
The population levels are increasing.
Social effects
Less livable area per human.
Less energy resources available per human.
Less food and water resources
Solution
Control the birth rate of humans.
Open up more land area by terra-forming.
Redesign of human habitats.
Global Water Crisis
Total annual renewable water resources 35,000,000 km3/yr
Total accessible water resources 200,000 km3/yr
Total world population 6,800,000,000
Total water with drawl per capita 0.000083909 km3/yr
Total water with drawl by population 570,581 km3/yr
Total annual renewable water resources in 2050 35,000,000 km3/yr
Total accessible water resources in 2050 200,000 km3/yr
Total world population in 2050 9,720,448,633
Total water withdrawl per capita in 2050 0.000083909 km3/yr
Total water withdrawl by population in 2050 815,633 km3/yr
Source: © 2007 Pacific Institute and linked sources
Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Source: CIA World Factbook up to and including 2013
Conclusion
The World is already in an accessible water shortage by withdrawing more than is available per year in 2007.
The World will be in an accessible water shortage by withdrawing more than is available per year by 2050
Social effects
Death of human beings
Water rationing
Water prices increasing.
Political crisis linked to water supply.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through contaminated water.
Solution:
Localization of water collection, filtration and storage at each dwelling on earth.
Redesign of human habitats.
Global Food Crisis
World Total food production 6,761,809,256 ton/yr
Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx
World number of malnourished population 925 million
World number of malnourished population by 2050 2 billion
Source: http://www.un.org/en/sustainablefuture/food.shtml
Conclusion
The majority of the human population of the planet are able to get enough food.
The world food supply is dependant on energy, natural resources and environment sustainability.
The number of malnourished humans will increase to epidemic levels by 2050 and be uncontrollable due to energy, resource and environment depletion. Food will not be able to be transported globally and will have to be obtained locally in each country.
Social effects
Death of human beings
Food rationing
Food prices increasing.
Political crisis linked to food supply.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through contaminated food.
Solution
Localization of food cultivation, picking, storage around every dwelling on earth.
Redesign of human habitats.
Economic Collapse
World GDP purchasing power parity $83.12 trillion
World public debt (64%of GDP) $53.20 trillion
World Revenues: $20.69 trillion
World Expenditures: $23.38 trillion
World population: 7,095,217,980
Total world countries 2013: 195 countries
72 dependent areas and other entities
Total world countries in debt 2013: 194 countries
72 dependent areas and other entities
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
Economic decline has reached the point where countries are going bankrupt.
There is no other policy to retrieve this situation other than a global re establishment of currency and a removal of previous debts. This however is short term since the counties have no other localized resources to rebuild them to a world comparable level.
Social effects
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, reduced manufacturing, economic collapse.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to economic decline.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through health care failure.
Solution
Remove the existing global economic, political and social incentive systems.
Replace them with a localized economy of self dependency incentives.
The individual must take care of themselves.
Redesign of human habitats.
Global Energy Crisis
World Electricity production 21.33 trillion kWh
66.6% from fossil fuels
World Electricity consumption 19.54 trillion kWh
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
The World is producing more energy than it uses.
This is consuming fossil fuels above the rate that is sustainable.
When electricity consumption exceeds production the global energy production will fail.
Social effects
Global electricity production and distribution depletion
Global transport depletion
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, manufacturing depletion, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to energy depletion.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through electricity depletion.
Solution
Remove the existing global energy systems.
Replace them with a localized self dependency energy system.
The individual must take care of themselves.
Peak Oil
World Proven Oil reserves 1.532 trillion bbl
World Oil Production 84.53 million bbl/day
World Oil reserve lifespan at current
production level 18,124 days
49 years
World Peak Oil Point in years 25 years
World Peak oil point 2038
World Peak Oil total depletion point 2062
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
The World is running out of natural oil reserves at its current production rate.
When oil consumption exceeds production the global oil industry will fail since it becomes more economic to leave the oil in the ground than to extract it.
Social effects
Global oil production and distribution depletion
Global transport depletion
Global energy depletion.
Global lubricant depletion
Global oil distilled insulation depletion
Global manufacturing depletion
Global oil distilled plastic product depletion
Global oil distilled medicines depletion.
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to oil depletion.
Wars to take over oil supplies.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through oil depletion.
Solution
Remove the existing global oil based energy and manufacturing systems.
Replace them with a localized self dependency recycled plastic manufacturing system.
Redesign of human habitats.
Peak Gas
World Proven Gas reserves 208.4 trillion cu m
World gas Production 3.401 trillion cu m
World Gas reserve lifespan at current production level 61 years
World Peak Gas Point in years 30 years
2013 + 30 2043
World Peak Gas total depletion point in years 2013 + 61 2074
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
The World is running out of natural gas reserves at its current production rate.
When gas consumption exceeds production the global gas industry will fail since it becomes more economic to leave the gas in the ground than to extract it.
Social effects
Global gas production and distribution depletion
Global transport depletion
Global energy depletion.
Global manufacturing depletion
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to gas depletion.
Wars to take over gas supplies.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through gas depletion.
Solution
Remove the existing global gas based energy and manufacturing systems.
Replace them with a localized self dependency recycled fuel manufacturing system.
Redesign of human habitats.
Peak Coal
Total coal reserves of world 2010 861 billion tonnes
Total coal production of world 2012 7.2 billion tonnes
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
Total lifespan of world coal reserve 120 years 2130
World coal peak point by production 60 years 2070
Conclusion
The World is very rich in natural coal reserves at its current production rate.
This varies considerably by country but is the most likely future source of energy to allow other natural energy sources to be developed.
If coal is relied on worldwide as a fuel then the consumption rate will increase and depletion will occur at an earlier date.
When coal consumption exceeds production the global coal industry will fail since it becomes more economic to leave the coal in the ground than to extract it.
Social effects
Global coal production and distribution depletion
Global energy depletion.
Global manufacturing depletion
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to coal depletion.
Wars to take over coal supplies.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through coal depletion.
Solution
Remove the existing global coal based energy and manufacturing
Systems to the point where the global and national resources will be sustained over maximum timescales.
Replace them with a localized self dependency recycled fuel manufacturing system.
Redesign of human habitats.
Peak Tar Sands
Total tar sand reserves of world 2 trillion barrels
At World Oil Production levels 84.53 million bbl/day
World Peak Tar Sands reserve lifespan 23660 days
65 years 2078
World Peak Tar Sands in years 33 years 2046
World Peak Tar Sands total depletion point 2078
Source; "About Tar Sands".
Conclusion
The World is very rich in natural tar sand reserves at its current production rate.
This varies considerably by country but is a likely future source of energy to allow other natural energy sources to be developed.
Tar sand removal is exceptionally devastating to the environment and this needs to be considered before removal is allowed. However need for energy is likely to increase and so environmental damage will probably be considered a secondary issue to a countries survival.
If tar sands are relied on worldwide as a fuel then the consumption rate will increase and depletion will occur at an earlier date.
When tar sands consumption exceeds production the global tar sands industry will fail since it becomes more economic to leave the tar sands in the ground than to extract it.
Social effects
Global tar sands production and distribution depletion
Global energy depletion.
Global manufacturing depletion
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to tar sands depletion.
Wars to take over tar sands supplies.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through tar sands depletion.
Increase in sulphur production as a tar sand bi-product.
Solution
Remove the existing global tar sands based energy and manufacturing
Systems to the point where the global and national resources will be sustained over maximum timescales.
Replace them with a localized self dependency recycled fuel manufacturing system.
Redesign of human habitats.
Peak Bitumen
Total natural bitumen reserves 249.67 bbl
At World Oil Production levels 84.53 million bbl/day
World Peak Bitumen 2954 days
8 years
World Peak Bitumen Point in years 4 years 2017
World Peak Bitumen total depletion point 2021
Source: Bitumen and heavy crudes:
The energy security problem solved?".
Oil and Energy Trends 31 (6): 3–5. 2006
Conclusion
The World is very not rich in natural bitumen reserves.
This varies considerably by country but is not a likely future source of energy.
Bitumen removal is exceptionally devastating to the environment and this needs to be considered before removal is allowed. However need for energy is likely to increase and so environmental damage will probably be considered a secondary issue to a countries survival.
If bitumen is relied on worldwide as a fuel then the consumption rate will increase and depletion will occur at an earlier date. When bitumen consumption exceeds production the global
bitumen industry will fail since it becomes more economic to leave the bitumen in the ground than to extract it.
Social effects
Global bitumen production and distribution depletion
Global energy depletion.
Global manufacturing depletion
Poverty, malnutrition and death of human beings.
Migration of populations across the planet.
Unemployment, economic collapse, blackouts.
Lack of incentive for humans to maintain communities.
Political crisis linked to bitumen depletion.
Wars to take over bitumen supplies.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through bitumen depletion.
Solution
Remove the existing global bitumen based energy and manufacturing systems to the point where the global and national resources will be sustained over maximum timescales.
Replace them with a localized self dependency recycled fuel manufacturing system.
Redesign of human habitats.
Global Pandemic Likely hood
World Population Density in Urban Areas in 2013:
50.5% of total population 3,547,608,990
World rate of urbanization:
1.85% annual rate of change 65,630,766
World Population Density in Urban Areas in 2050
at same rate of Urbanization
60% of total population 5,975,947,332
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Conclusion
The progression is towards greater urbanization and therefore a greater chance of a pandemic.
Social effects
Increased pressure on oil distillation production by the chemicals industry depleting oil reserves at an increased rate.
Increased production needed from Hygiene / Health Care medicine
producers that cannot be sustained due to dependency on petroleum based distilled medicines.
Increased cost of medicines.
Increased death rate of human beings
Medicine rationing
Political crisis linked to medicine supply.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through lack of hygiene and medicines.
Solution
Localization of alternative herbal medicinal cultivation, picking, storage around every dwelling on earth.
Redesign of human habitats.
Global Resources Depletion
Conclusion
This is ongoing.
This will increase as energy depletes due to an increased
Population and populations need for resources.
Energy depletion and resource extraction are linked.
Resources cannot be extracted without energy.
The simplest explanation for the state of the planet is that it is halfway through its lifetime
Social effects
Death of human beings
Resource rationing
Resource prices increasing.
Political crisis linked to resource supply.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through resource depletion.
Solution:
Localization of resource collection, filtration and storage at each dwelling on earth.
Redesign of human habitats.
Species Extinction
Between 1.4 and 1.8 million species have already been
scientifically identified.
Extinction rate between 0.01% /yr and 0.1% /yr
Number of extinctions / yr = 14,000-180,000
Source: WWF 2013
Conclusion
The rate of species extinction appears low but any species loss is suggestive of an environment failure.
Social effects
Since humans are part of the environment they may be affected by a chaotic extinction effect.
The rate of energy, natural resource and environmental depletion is increasing and so extinction rates will increase.
Solution:
There is no solution to extinctions.
Climate Change
Sun
The Suns energy output is variable over an 11,000 year cycle but the solar radiation at the Earths surface has remained constant for most of human history.
Therefore the effect of the suns energy output on climate change during human evolution is minimal.
Moon
The moon alters the tilt of the earth over a 41,000 year cycle.
The moon creates gravitational effects on the earth and causes 4 tides per day to occur.
The effects on the land animal and plant life cause variances in activity.
The moon and sun alter the axial tilt of the earth over 19,000 to 24,000 years.
Therefore the effect of the suns energy output on climate change during human evolution is minimal.
Earth
The Earths orbit, axis angle and the seasonal polar axis are all variable and change the earths climate but over very long timescales. Milankovitch Cycles.
Therefore the effect of the Earths orbit, axis angle with respect to the plane of revolution of the sun, polar axis on climate change during human evolution is minimal.
Continental drift.
Continental drift does alter the land and ocean forms of the Earth and so change the habitat types for any life forms. This occurs however over very long timescales.
Therefore the effect of continental drift on climate change during human evolution is minimal.
Geology
Fossil fuels, mineral and elemental resources are reaching their peak resource levels.
Peak indications from Material Scarcity An M2i study November 2009 show a peak time period of 2018 - 2062 for natural element depreciation.
Geology varies over very long timescales and so its effect on climate change during human evolution is minimal. Fossil fuel use at depletion levels is however causing depletion of environment and atmosphere which is then causing increased fossil fuel depletion to allow humans to survive extreme environmental changes.
Vulcanism
Vulcanism effects the climate immediately in their vicinity and globally over a short time period.
Super volcanoes are an extreme form of vulcanism that eject massive volumes of material into the atmosphere altering the atmospheric composition and albedo. This results in a cooling of the earth surface and an increase in ice formation or even an ice age.
Therefore the effect of vulcanism on climate change during human evolution is important.
Ice ages
Ice ages occur in 100,000 year cycles.
The last ice age ended 12,000 years ago. The Earth is currently warming up again.
Therefore the effect of vulcanism on climate change during human evolution is minimal.
Life
Life forms all vary climate by merely existing and interacting with the environment.
Therefore the effect of life forms on climate change during human evolution is important.
Greenhouse gases
These are naturally occurring elements, gases, that can absorb and emit radiation in the form of heat. The greenhouse effect is necessary to heat up the earth and allow life to survive.
The Earth is currently averaging 14 °C. If the greenhouse gas effect is removed then the earth temperature would drop to an average of -19 °C.
Therefore greenhouse gases are vital at the current levels to allow humans to exist and survive.
Human intervention in the burning of fossil fuels has altered the natural balancing system of the planet. Burning releases carbon di-oxide and methane and water vapour. The atmosphere of the Earth is trapping more heat and more of these greenhouse gases and causing the heating effect to be amplified.
This changes the survivability potential of humans on the planet.
Change the amount of water available and human survival time is reduced to 1 week.
Change the amount of food available and human survival time is reduced to 4 to 6 weeks.
Change the temperature to below 35 deg C (95 deg F) and Hypothermia occurs in humans continue to decrease the temperature and humans die.
Change the temperature to above 40 deg C (104 deg F) and Hyperthermia occurs in humans continue to increase the temperature and humans die.
Change the air pressure and mixture of gases and humans die.
Change the respiration rate and humans can last 6 minutes before brain cell death occurs. Humans remain aware up to 6 minutes after death of their body occurs.
Change the Carbon Dioxide levels and humans suffer ill health and then die.
Change the global temperature and cause sea level rise.
Change the global sea level rise and cause mass migration from flooded areas.
Change the global sea level rise and change the climate and human survival potatial.
Conclusion
Greenhouse gases are needed at the balanced level to maintain all life on earth.
Life is itself part of this greenhouse gas cycle.
The planet is therefore a balanced system that evolved not in cooperation but out of necessity to cope with the environment outside the planet.
This can be observed by a comparison of the Earth and the other solar system planets.
The proximity of the planet to the sun, the atmospheric composition of the planet to protect its surface from the sun, the control mechanism of water on the planet, the cycle of carbonates on the planet, the existence of life on the planet all contribute to the planets longevity.
The planets themselves may also have a beneficial gravitational effect on the star they orbit by interacting with the plasma that is ejected from it.
On the Earth in this context examining each basis for possible global warming humans clearly have varied the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere by excessive use of fossil fuels in a very short time period.
Social effects
Increased depletion of environment.
Increased depletion of resources
Increased depletion of energy
Political crisis linked to resource supply.
Health issues. Plague. Disease through resource depletion.
Solution:
There is no current solution to climate change caused by humans.
Humans need the energy and resources that cause climate change to exist in there present society.
A future solution is to change the society.
This is done by changing needs, values, qualities, appreciations of beauty, culture and then society.
This change is made into an incentive by money supply, by self improvement possibility, by being known as a worthwhile part of a society.
The incentives are advertised to the population by changes in music, art, sculpture, media, communications and architecture.
Summary
These are the current issues with the Earth.
They indicate a crisis period from oil depletion in 2020 to environmental depletion by the end of the century.
They indicate a planet dominated by human activity, wants and desires.
If humans are to ensure there continued development they must change wants and desires for needs.
The society that will deal with the planet will have new needs, new values, new appreciations of quality and beauty, new cultural forms.
It will not be a global society. It will have to be a society of individual responsibility in a localized culture.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
01/09/2013
14/10/2020
3531 words over 13 pages