The Cost of Solar Energy
The advertised description of solar; or the correctly but less used name of photovoltaic; energy is of a non-exhaustible source of economic, clean, easily installed, retrofitted energy gathering.
It is a status symbol of independence.
It is a progressive ideal.
The practicalities of this form of energy gathering also vary over the whole planet due to need, climate, geography, resources and manufacturing ability.
What then are the actual practicalities of solar energy in Britain ?
Non-exhaustible.
In terms of human lifetimes the sun is an infinite source of potential energy.
In terms of geographic location and weather the sun is a temporary source of potential energy.
In Britain there may be 10 days of potential sunshine to allow the photovoltaic panels to operate at optimum energy transfer.
In terms of resources photovoltaic panels are dependant on fossil fuel extraction, to be manufactured, distributed, installed and operated.
These are vary rare in Britain and so currently all photovoltaic resources and panels are imported.
The Manufacture and Economic and Energy costs of photovoltaic panels
A 50MW, 5,000 sqm, solar panel plant capital cost
= $50,000,000
= £31,545,741
Source: http://www.solar-facts-and-advice.com/monocrystalline.html
Interest on capital cost
= $2,625,000
= £1,656,151
To produce 1Kg of Silicon (from silica) requires
230-235MJ or 63,900 to 65,300 watt-hours.
= 65.3 kWh
Source: http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html
It takes 250 pounds weight (113kg) of polysilicon
to make a single boule of photovoltaic quality silicon.
= 7,378 kWh/boule ingot
Source: http://www.solarworld-usa.com/solar-for-home/solar-101/making-solar-panels
The manufacture of electronic grade silicon used
approximately 200 kWh/kg
= 22,600 kWh/boule ingot
Source:http://www.csudh.edu/oliver/smt310handouts/solarpan/pvpayback.htm
Total cost for 1 boule ingot of electronic grade silicon
= 30,043 kWh/boule ingot
Wafering, cutting, squaring cost of photovoltaic quality silicon
Each mm of crystal yields 2.5 wafers
Each boule ingot measures 2 feet, 600mm.
Each boule ingot yields 1500 wafers.
Etching, diffusing, stringing into panels.
Allowing each panel to use 60 cells
Allowing approx. 25 photovoltaic panels per boule ingot.
Allowing for 30,043 kWh/boule ingot or 25 photovoltaic panels
= 1202 kWh/boule ingot or per photovoltaic panel
Framing, inspection and shipping.
Transport, Sales, Purchase, installation, use, lifespan of 25 years.
Total world installed photovoltaic panel energy and manufacturing
Source: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (2013).
"Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017".
= 102.2 GWpeak
= 102,200,000 kWh
= 102,200,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels
= 4,088,000 boule ingots to make wafers
= 461,944,000 kg/silicon to make boule ingots
= 1 No 50MW photovoltaic plant
= 1 No 50,000,000 w photovoltaic plant
= 1 No 50,000 kW photovoltaic plant
= 2044 No. 50 MW, photovoltaic plants output globally in 2013
Speed of extraction, manufacture, installation and use of photovoltaic panels in terms of output potential
Source: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (2013).
"Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017".
= 24 GW in 2009
= 24,000,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels / year
= 40.7 GW in 2010
= 40,700,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels / year
= 58% increase on previous year
= 71.1 GW in 2011
= 71,100,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels / year
= 57% increase on previous year
= 100 GW in 2012.
= 100,000,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels / year
= 71% increase on previous year
This allows for approx. 2GW per year increase in extraction, manufacture, installation and use of photovoltaic panels per year.
At an output of 50 MW (50,000 KW) per plant
= 50,000 photovoltaic panel output per plant / year
= 137 panels / day (approx 1/3 the rate of a car plant production)
= 6 panels / hour
Global electricity percentage output by photovoltaics
Global electricity use in 2013
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013 (2009 est.)
=19,540,000,000,000 kWh
Total world installed photovoltaic panel energy and manufacturing
Source: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (2013).
"Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013-2017".
= 102,200,000 kWh
Percentage of global electricity via photovoltaics
= 0.0005 %
Potential of Global electricity production by photovoltaics
Total surface area of the Earth
= 510,072,000 sq km
= 510,072,000,000,000 sq m
Total land area of Earth
= 148,940,000 sq km
= 148,940,000,000,000 sq m
Potential solar radiation allowing for day and night
= 50% of earth surface
= 255,036,000,000,000 sq m
Solar radiation over 1 sq m at surface
= 1000 w/sq m
Potential power over 50 % of earth surface
= 255,036,000,000,000 x 1000
= 255,036,000,000,000,000 w
= 255,036,000,000,000 kw
= 255,036,000 Gw
If this energy was collected by pv panels. Allowance 12% efficiency for current solar pv panels
= 30,604,320 Gw
Comparing this to the total energy requirement of Earth in electricity
Electricity - production:
Source: CIA World Factbook
= 21.33 trillion kWh (2010 est.)
= 21,330,000 Gw
Electricity - consumption:
Source: CIA World Factbook
= 19.54 trillion kWh (2009 est.)
= 19,540,000 Gw
This means that the total solar irradiance of 50 % of Earth would be just about sufficient to power the Earth in its current technological, economic, and population level using current solar pv panels.
Fossil fuels need to be burnt to allow solar pv panels to be produced.
Batteries would need to be produced to store the solar energy to make it efficient and allow for use at night.
Solar pv panels are not an option for powering the Earth currently.
Feasibility and Economics of the use of photovoltaics in Britain
If photovoltaics were to be adopted as the sole source of energy in Britain the following would need to be allowed for.
Power Consumption 2013
Britain’s electrical power consumption in 2013
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
= 325800 GW
= for a population of 63,395,574 people
= 5139 kwh / person / year in 2013 since fossil fuel use must reduce
= 5 x 1 kw panels x 63,395,574
= 316,977,870 1 kW photovoltaic panels
= At 50,000 photovoltaic panel output per plant / year
= 6339, 50MW plants output for 1 year to achieve total photovoltaic use in Britain
= $333,589,875,000, £210,466,798,105 capital and interest investment excluding ongoing material, labour, transport, energy costs.
Power Consumption 2050
Britain’s electrical power consumption in 2050
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
= 325800 GW
= for a population of 77,000,000 people
= 4231 kwh / person / year in 2050 since fossil fuel use must reduce
= 4 x 1 kw panels x 77,000,000
= 308,000,000 1 kW photovoltaic panels
= At 50,000 photovoltaic panel output per plant / year
= 6160, 50MW plants output for 1 year to achieve total photovoltaic use in Britain
= $324,170,000,000, £204,523,659,304 capital and interest
investment excluding ongoing material, labour, transport, energy costs.
In terms of cost per number of dwellings in Britain.
Number of Dwellings
= Total number of dwellings in Britain
Source: ONS 2011
= 26,300,000
Solar Panels
= Total cost for 200w solar panel
= £200 x 3 per house £600 incl vat
= Total cost for all houses to have solar panels
= £15,780,000,000
Batteries
= 1110 kwh/yr = 3kwh/day / 3000 watts/day / 12v /250Ah/day
= 500Ah/day storage allowance
= 5/110Ah batteries trickle charged in parallel.
= £150 x 5 = per house
= £750 incl vat
Total cost for all houses to have batteries
= £19,725,000,000
Total cost of solar panels and batteries
= £35,505,000,000
Installation cost allowance 10% of total cost
= £3,550,500,000
= Allowance for complete installation
= £39,055,500,000
This equates to approx 3% of total GDP of Britain in 2013
which was £1,455,057,510,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
If the carbon free economy reduction in use of fossil fuels are allowed for at the percentages required by international agreements to achieve a 2 deg C climate change between 2020 and 2050 then the economy will be running at a level of 66% of its current GDP by 2020 and 20% of its current GDP by 2050
In 2020 the economy GDP would be = £498,018,927,444 by 2020
The cost of solar panels then equates to 8% of total GDP of Britain in 2020.
In 2050 the economy GDP would be = £99,603,785,488
The cost of solar panels then equates to 39% of total GDP of Britain in 2050.
Conclusions
Photovoltaic panels are not a totally inexhaustible energy solution if applied to the climate of Britain.
There is a massive shortfall in the needed speed of extraction, manufacture, installation and use of photovoltaic’s globally to meet population increases.
Current photovoltaics are moving over to film production photovoltaics to shorten the production time, energy and materials used in an attempt to reduce costs and increase sales. The use of aluminium frames has been curtailed in favour of a bonded photovoltaic system. This frameless approach needs no development costs unlike the paint on film process and so has been more successful.
Photovoltaics are dependant on imports and exports. Imports and exports will reduce as fossil fuels deplete making the installation of photovoltaics less possible.
Photovoltaics require a massive capital investment. They do not create strong independent economies.
Photovoltaics will not meet the required global demand in 2050 as an alternative energy source.
The more manufacturing of photovoltaic’s is increased the more fossil fuels will need to be used in the extraction, manufacture, installation and use of them.
The amount of fossil fuel use exceeds the potential of photovoltaics as an energy source.
Photovoltaic’s use fossil fuel reserves and so are not a clean energy system.
Photovoltaic’s are not easily installed or retrofitted on existing property due to local climate, weather, service suitability, and orientation of buildings.
The true use of solar power is in passive systems, requiring only the correct design, materials and placing of openings in a dwelling or workplace.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
23/09/2013
14/10/2020
1606 words over 6 pages