The Future of Communications after Energy Depletion
If energy levels are reduced by a global reduction in the allowed use of fossil fuels then will the communications and internet survive up to 2050.
This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.
Global Population 2013: 7,095,217,980
Global population by 2020 7,641,549,764
Global population by 2050 9,982,971,669
Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013
Global Energy
Global Electricity production 21,330,000,000,000 kWh
66.6% from fossil fuels 3006 kWh/person
Global Electricity consumption 19,540,000,000,000 kWh
Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013 2753 kWh/person
Global Energy post 2020
Allowing for 34% reduction in 2020
Global Electricity production 14,077,800,000,000 kWh
1842 kWh/person
Global Electricity consumption 12,896,400,000,000 kWh
Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013 1688 kWh/person
Allowing for 80% reduction in 2050
Global Electricity production 2,815,560,000,000 kWh
282 kWh/person
Global Electricity consumption 2,579,280,000,000 kWh
Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013 258 kWh/person
Communications: Global
Telephones - main lines in use: 1,200,000,000 (2011)
Telephones - mobile cellular: 6,000,000,000 (2011)
Telephone system:
general assessment: NA
domestic: NA
international: NA
Internet users: 2,100,000,000 (2010)
Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013
Energy in Communications
£202 per phone per year £1,212,000,000,000 per year
1 kWh per phone per year 6,220,800,000 kWh per year
Analysis
This is approx. 0.03% of the 2013 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.03% of the 2013 personal electricity consumption.
This is approx. 0.05% of the 2020 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.06% of the 2020 personal electricity consumption.
This is approx. 0.24% of the 2050 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.40% of the 2050 personal electricity consumption.
Conclusion
This indicates that even when the reduction in global and personal energy is allowed for mobile communications will still be available up to 2050 at the current 2013 technology energy levels.
Energy Use by the Web
Internet energy consumption 170GW to 370 GW
Internet energy to produce all internet components 16,000,000,000 kW
Source: The Energy and Emergy of the Internet Barath
Raghavan and Justin Ma ICSI and UC Berkeley 170,000,000 kW
to 370,000,000 kW
Total 16,370,000,000 kW
2 kW/person in 2013
2 kW/person in 2020
1.6 kW/person in 2050
Analysis
This is approx. 0.08% of the 2013 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.07% of the 2013 personal electricity consumption
This is approx. 0.13% of the 2020 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.11% of the 2020 personal electricity consumption
This is approx. 0.63% of the 2050 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.62% of the 2020 global electricity consumption
Conclusion
This indicates that even when the reduction in global and personal energy is allowed for internet communications will still be available up to 2050 at the current 2013 technology energy levels.
Ian K Whittaker
Website: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
01/10/2013
14/10/2020
463 words over 2 pages