Article 037 - The Future of Communications after Energy Depletion

The Future of Communications after Energy Depletion

If energy levels are reduced by a global reduction in the allowed use of fossil fuels then will the communications and internet survive up to 2050.

This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.

Global Population 2013:                                         7,095,217,980

Global population by 2020                                      7,641,549,764

Global population by 2050                                      9,982,971,669

Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013

Global Energy

Global Electricity production                                   21,330,000,000,000 kWh

66.6% from fossil fuels                                                               3006 kWh/person

Global Electricity consumption                               19,540,000,000,000  kWh

Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013                                          2753 kWh/person

Global Energy post 2020

Allowing for 34% reduction in 2020

Global Electricity production                                   14,077,800,000,000  kWh

                                                                            1842 kWh/person

Global Electricity consumption                                12,896,400,000,000  kWh

Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013                                           1688 kWh/person

Allowing for 80% reduction in 2050

Global Electricity production                                    2,815,560,000,000  kWh

                                                                             282 kWh/person

Global Electricity consumption                                 2,579,280,000,000  kWh

Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013                                            258 kWh/person

Communications: Global

Telephones - main lines in use:                                1,200,000,000  (2011)

Telephones - mobile cellular:                                    6,000,000,000 (2011)

Telephone system:   

general assessment: NA

domestic: NA

international: NA  

Internet users:                                                        2,100,000,000 (2010)

Source: CIA Global Fact book 2013

Energy in Communications

£202 per phone per year                                     £1,212,000,000,000 per year

1 kWh per phone per year                                  6,220,800,000 kWh per year

Analysis

This is approx. 0.03% of the 2013 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.03% of the 2013 personal electricity consumption.

This is approx. 0.05% of the 2020 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.06% of the 2020 personal electricity consumption.

This is approx. 0.24% of the 2050 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.40% of the 2050 personal electricity consumption.

Conclusion

This indicates that even when the reduction in global and personal energy is allowed for mobile communications will still be available up to 2050 at the current 2013 technology energy levels.

Energy Use by the Web

Internet energy consumption                                         170GW to 370 GW

Internet energy to produce all internet components          16,000,000,000 kW

Source: The Energy and Emergy of the Internet Barath

Raghavan and Justin Ma ICSI and UC Berkeley                                 170,000,000 kW

                                                                                  to 370,000,000 kW

Total                                                                           16,370,000,000 kW

                                                                                  2 kW/person in 2013 

                                                                                  2 kW/person in 2020

                                                                                  1.6 kW/person in 2050

Analysis          

This is approx. 0.08% of the 2013 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.07% of the 2013 personal electricity consumption

This is approx. 0.13% of the 2020 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.11% of the 2020 personal electricity consumption

This is approx. 0.63% of the 2050 global electricity consumption and approx. 0.62% of the 2020 global electricity consumption

Conclusion

This indicates that even when the reduction in global and personal energy is allowed for internet communications will still be available up to 2050 at the current 2013 technology energy levels.

Ian K Whittaker

Website: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles

Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com

01/10/2013

14/10/2020

463 words over 2 pages