Biofuel as a Replacement for Petroleum.
This essay examines the current status of the replacement of Petroleum with Biofuel.
It examines the world proven reserves of oil, world consumption of petroleum, world consumption of refined petroleum products, world duration of oil reserves, most common biofuel, ethanol compared to petroleum, extraction of ethanol, producers of ethanol, ethanol crops, embodied energy in sugar cane crop and ethanol production, dominant ethanol crops with annual yield, ghg saving and embodied energy, sugar cane to petroleum consumption comparison and issues, the effect of petroleum production reduction and the number of vehicles worldwide
Finally conclusions are drawn.
World Proven Reserves of Oil.
1.665 trillion bbl (1 January 2016 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2017-01-17)
World Consumption of Petroleum.
93,500,000 barrels per year.
Source: CIA World Factbook (2017-01-17)
Source: http://world.bymap.org/OilConsumption.html
World Consumption of Refined Petroleum Products.
92.79 million bbl/day (2014 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook (2017-01-17)
If 1 barrel of oil is 158.987 litres.
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/search?
93,500,000 x 158.987
1.48e+10 litres of gasoline per year consumed.
Alternatively at 756.3 litres per capita consumption.
Source: CIA World Factbook (2017-01-17)
Source: http://world.bymap.org/OilConsumption.html
Given a world population of 7,500,000,000
Source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Total 5.67225e+12 litres per year consumed.
World Duration of Oil Reserves.
17,943 days. 49 years. At current consumption. Peak. 25 years.
2017 to 2066
Peak. 2042.
Most Common Biofuel.
‘Ethanol fuel is the most common biofuel worldwide, particularly in Brazil.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel
Ethanol Compared to Petroleum.
The Energy Content of Ethanol per unit volume to Energy content of Petroleum per unit volume.
2/3: 1
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
The Ethanol volumetric Consumption to Petroleum Volumetric Consumption
30% : 1%
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
Mixing Ethanol and Petroleum assists Petroleum to burn more efficiently.
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
Extraction of Ethanol.
Fermenting Starch crops, reacting vegetable oil and animal fat with alcohol or by treating plant oil or animal fat with hydrogen can all produce biofuel.
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
Producers of Ethanol.
World Production of Ethanol.
24,570 gallons; 93,008 litres; of Ethanol in 2014.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_by_country
Source: Data Source: Renewable Fuels Association. http://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1454098996479-8715d404-e546
The top 3 Country Producers of Ethanol are.
United States
14,300,000 gallons of Ethanol in 2014.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_by_country
Source: Data Source: Renewable Fuels Association.
Source: http://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1454098996479-8715d404-e546
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
Brazil
6,190 gallons of Ethanol in 2014.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_by_country
Source: Data Source: Renewable Fuels Association. http://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1454098996479-8715d404-e546
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-1/
EU
1,445 gallons of Ethanol in 2014.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_by_country
Source: Data Source: Renewable Fuels Association. http://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1454098996479-8715d404-e546
Ethanol Crops.
Sugar Cane, Bagasse, Miscanthus, Sugar Beet, Sorghum, Grain, Switch grass, Barley, Hemp, Kenaf, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes, Cassava, Sunflower, Fruit, Molasses, Corn, Stover, Grain, Wheat, Straw, and Cotton have all been tested as crops suitable for the production of Ethanol biofuel.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel Efficiency of common crops
Source (except those indicated): Nature 444 (7 December 2006): 673–676.
Embodied energy in Sugar Cane Crop and Ethanol Production.
‘In order to create ethanol, all biomass needs to go through some of these steps: it needs to be grown, collected, dried, fermented, and burned. All of these steps require resources and an infrastructure. The ratio of the energy released by burning the resulting ethanol fuel to the energy used in the process, is known as the ethanol fuel energy balance (sometimes called "Net energy gain") and studied as part of the wider field of energy economics.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_energy_balance
Source: Green Dreams J.K. Bourne JR, R. Clark National Geographic Magazine October 2007 p. 41 Article
Environmental Issues
'The findings of Zah et al. are striking. Most (21 out of 26) biofuels reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 30% relative to gasoline. But nearly half (12 out of 26) of the biofuels—including the economically most important ones, namely U.S. corn ethanol, Brazilian sugarcane ethanol and soy diesel, and Malaysian palm-oil diesel—have greater aggregate environmental costs than do fossil fuels.'
Source: 4 JANUARY 2008 VOL 319 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org
Source: R. Zah et al., Ökobilanz von Energieprodukten: Ökologische Bewertung von Biotreibstoffen (Empa, St. Gallen, Switzerland, 2007).
Source: A figure summarizing the findings of (6) is available as supporting material on Science Online.
'Not all biofuels are beneficial when their full environmental impacts are assessed; some of the most important, such as those produced from corn, sugarcane, and soy, perform poorly in many contexts. There is a clear need to consider more than just energy and greenhouse-gas emissions when evaluating different biofuels and to pursue new biofuel crops and technologies.'
Source: 4 JANUARY 2008 VOL 319 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org
'Not all biofuels are beneficial when their full environmental impacts are assessed. Some of the most important such as those produced from corn, sugarcane, and soy, perform poorly in many
contexts. We need to consider more than just energy and greenhouse-gas emissions when evaluating different biofuels and to pursue new biofuel crops and technologies. Governments
should be far more selective about which biofuel crops they support through subsidies and tax benefits.'
Source: How Green are Biofuels ? Jörn P. W. Scharlemann & William F. Laurance Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado 0843-03092, Balboa, Ancón, Panama
Dominant Ethanol Crops with Annual Yield, GHG saving and Embodied Energy
The dominant crops for Ethanol are corn, sugar cane, soy and palm oil.
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/quizzes/biofuels-quiz-part-2/
Corn as a crop for the production of Ethanol.
Annual Yield 3100–4000 L/ha
330–424 g/acre
GHG 10%–20% saving compared to Petroleum
Greenhouse Gases
Input energy 1
Output Energy 1.3
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_energy_balance
Source: Green Dreams J.K. Bourne JR, R. Clark National Geographic Magazine October 2007 p. 41 Article
Sugar Cane as a crop for the production of Ethanol.
Annual Yield 6800–8000 L/ha
727–870 g/acre
GHG 87%–96% saving compared to Petroleum
Greenhouse Gases
Input energy 1
Output Energy 8
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_energy_balance
Source: Green Dreams J.K. Bourne JR, R. Clark National Geographic Magazine October 2007 p. 41 Article
Soy as a crop for the production of Ethanol.
Annual Yield 530L/ ha
56 g/acre
Source: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/update55_6.xls
Source: Chapter 2, "Beyond the Oil Peak," in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006).
GHG not available saving compared to Petroleum
Greenhouse Gases
Palm Oil as a crop for the production of Ethanol.
Annual Yield 4805L/ha
508 g/acre
Source: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/update55_6.xls
Source: Chapter 2, "Beyond the Oil Peak," in Lester R. Brown, Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006).
GHG not available saving compared to Petroleum
Greenhouse Gases
Sugar Cane
World Production.
1,877,105 TMT (2015 est)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarcane#Cultivation
Source: Food And Agricultural Organization of United Nations: Economic And Social Department: The Statistical Division
Allowing for 75 tons of raw sugar production per hectare (Brazil)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugarcane#Cultivation
Source: Food And Agricultural Organization of United Nations: Economic And Social Department: The Statistical Division
Allows for 1,877,105 / 75 hectares of production.
25,028 hectares globally of sugar cane land area.
At an annual yield of 6,800 litres per hectare over 25,028 hectares globally.
The annual litres of Ethanol produced globally at these rates is 170,190,400 litres of Ethanol globally.
The annual fuel ethanol production by country 2014 to 2016 estimated the world production at 24,570,000,000 gallons, 93,007,567,533 litres.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_by_country
Sugar Cane to Petroleum Consumption Comparison and Issues.
To match the litres of gasoline. 5.67225e+12 litres per year consumption.
5.67225e+12 / 170,190,400
Ethanol production would have to increase by 33,328 times the current production amount.
This would need an additional 33,328 x 25,028 hectares of land
An additional 834,133,184 hectares of land globally.
Brazil has a land area of 851,600,000 ha.
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/search?
Therefore 98% of Brazil would be needed for Sugar Cane production to give the planet enough Ethanol to achieve current gasoline consumption levels.
The Effect of Petroleum Production Reduction
The number of people involved in the petroleum industry will decline up to 2050.
The number of people employed indirectly by being connected to petroleum products will decline up to 2050.
The Number of Vehicles Worldwide
The total number of passenger and commercial vehicles globally in 2015 was estimated at
1,282,269,627
Source: http://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/
1,015,000,000
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle
The total number of vehicles globally was estimated at
90,843,939
Source: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/
The number of cars produced has been increasing since 2005.
Each vehicle will need to be adapted to biofuels.
Given the land area required to produce sufficient biofuels such as Ethanol using Ethanol at the levels of petroleum is not feasible.
The number of vehicles globally must reduce if Ethanol is used as a fuel source.
Conclusions
The world reserves of oil are running out and will end by 2066 at the current consumption levels.
To combat global warming all fossil fuels including oil are also planned to be phased out by 2050.
All refined petroleum products, including fuels; will therefore be phased out by 2050.
Alternatives to fossil fuels are needed. Biofuels are one option.
Biofuels have however potentially greater aggregate environmental costs than do fossil fuels.
Not all biofuels are beneficial when their full environmental impacts are assessed.
The most common current biofuel is Ethanol.
As an energy source Ethanol is less efficient than petroleum by about one third.
A larger volume of Ethanol per annum will be needed to take the place of all petroleum products.
Additional farmland will be needed in the future to feed the increasing world population.
A percentage of this land area will be needed for alternative biofuels to replace petroleum products.
Of the crops used to produce Ethanol examined Sugar Cane has the best for annual yield and GHG; greenhouse gas savings; and embodied energy input to output ratio.
Increasing the percentage of land devoted to Biofuels to produce enough Ethanol to meet the levels of current Petroleum product consumption is not viable.
The amount of Petroleum products must be reduced to ensure enough land remains for food production for increasing populations.
The number of people involved in the petroleum industry will decline up to 2050.
The number of people employed indirectly by being connected to petroleum products will decline up to 2050.
The numbers of aircraft, ships, boats, consumer products based on petroleum will also decline up to 2050.
The replacement of Petroleum with Biofuel will change the nature of human society on Earth up to the year 2050.
Ian K Whittak
Website
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
29/07/2017
14/10/2020
1829 words over 6 pages
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