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The Architecture of Climate Change 10,000BC to 2016.
This essay examines the nature of the Architecture of Climate Change from 10,000BC to 2016.
Theory
The essay proposes that humans have to radically alter the nature of their society in order to adapt and survive climate change.
Definitions
Architecture
In the context of this essay Architecture refers to ‘ideas’, ‘relationships’, ‘ entanglements’, ‘interactions’, ‘inputs’ and ‘outputs’.
Method
The essay compares data over 12,016 years from 10,000BC to 2016.
For each year it compares major changes in technology, population numbers, human use of natural energy sources; oil, coal and peat, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar pv, biofuels and waste and other renewables; in energy percentage of total energy per year and gCO2eq/kWh per fuel type and total gCO2eq/kWh per person per year in relation to total CO2 emissions.
The percentage of each type of energy source is calculated.
The main type of energy source used by humans since 10,000BC is calculated.
The total energy used by humans is calculated
The total CO2 emissions are calculated.
The recorded mean temperature of the Earth change over recorded time is allowed for.
The total amount of the main fuels used is calculated
The total emissions of the main fuels used is calculated.
The ratios of energy, main energy used and emissions per main energy type are calculated.
The amount of natural carbon emissions are calculated.
The natural processing rate of the carbon cycle is established.
The timescales for natural and human influenced emissions are calculated.
The influence; natural or human; over the temperature of the Earth over 12,016 years is calculated.
Conclusions are drawn.
Data is displayed in spreadsheet form attached to the essay.
References are included in the essay and spreadsheet.
Years
The data examined covers 10,000BC to 2016. 12,016 years.
Human Milestones
10,000BC.The end of last Ice Age.
Glaciers are retreating. Ice is melting into oceans. The oceans are increasing in volume. The Oceans are absorbing more solar energy. Gases in the ice are being released into the atmosphere. Less solar energy is reflected back into space as the ice cover diminishes. The land under the ice is being exposed. The albedo of the Earth is changing. The Earth is absorbing more solar energy. The pressure on the surface of the Earth is decreasing as the ice layer depth diminishes. The pressure variation of the oceans is increasing as they get deeper. Volcanic activity is increasing. Natural greenhouse gases are being released to the atmosphere.
The result of all these processes is that the mean temperature of the Earth is increasing.
10,000 BC
Neolithic Nomadic tribes are forming cultures and societies.
Oil lamps are replacing biofuel; wood, pitch; torches.
9,000 BC
Domestication of wheat is taking place around permanent settlements.
7,500 BC
The settlements become denser as the domestication of crops increases.
The first cities are formed.
6,000 BC
Animals are domesticated from the wild.
Communication methods are developed amongst humans.
Writing in the form of Ideograms is developed.
5,000 BC
The first city states and empires are formed out of the Middle East cultures around mound cities set along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
The use of natural building materials is developed.
Architecture; as idea; is created.
4,000 BC
The first power generation from coal and peat occurs.
1800
The end of the ancient biofuel era occurs after 8,200 years of biofuel and waste as an energy source.
The start of combined fossil fuel era occurs.
1846
Kerosene is invented.
1850
Commercial electricity generation starts to use oil.
1859
The first deep oil wells are drilled.
1878
The first hydro generation is developed.
1887
The first wind generators are developed.
1892
The first geothermal energy generation is developed.
1912
The first solar thermal energy generation is developed.
1914 to 1918
The First World War occurs.
1939 to 1945
The Second World War occurs.
1945
The end of the combined fossil fuel era occurs after 145 years.
The start of the combined fossil fuel and nuclear generation era occurs.
The main energy sources at the start of this period are coal and peat.
The main energy source at the end of this period is oil.
1951
The first hydrogen bomb tests are carried out.
1954
The first nuclear reactors are developed to generate energy.
The first solar photovoltaic crystalline cells are developed.
1956
The first commercial nuclear reactors to generate energy are created.
The first commercial geothermal plants to generate energy are created.
1965
Oil becomes the main energy source.
1973
The first world oil crisis occurs.
1980
The end of the combined fossil fuel and nuclear generation era occurs after 35 years.
The first fossil fuels and renewable energy generation era begins.
1981
The first solar thermal energy generation plant is created.
1988
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC is established to scientifically examine the theory of global warming.
The start of the use of renewable energy occurs.
1991
The first wind farm is created.
1997
The first successful fusion energy tests are carried out.
2016
The first fossil fuels and renewable energy generation era is 36 years old.
The data indicates an increasing use of natural environment, resource and energy by humans to artificially evolve; design; develop technology over the last 12016 years.
Human Population
10,000 BC to 2016
The population of the Earth increases from 4,000,000 in 10,000BC to 7,466,964,280 in 2016.
This is an increase of 7,462,964,280 people in 12,106 years.
This is an average increase of 621,086 people per year.
In energy eras the population increase is
10,000BC to 1800AD. 8,200 years. Increase of 787,000,000 people. Average 95,975 per year.
1800 to 1945. 145 years. Increase of 1,300,000,000 people. Average 8,965,517 per year.
1945 to 1980. 35 years. Increase of 2,140,000,000 people. Average 61,142,857 per year.
1980 to 2016. 36 years. Increase of 3,026,964,280 people. Average 84,082,341 per year.
The human population is increasing in number.
There is an increasing global population on the same; or diminishing due to sea level rise; land area.
There are larger population increases for each energy era since the end of the Biofuels and Waste era.
As energy sources increase in number the human population increases.
Human Dominant Energy Types
In terms of dominant energy type as a percentage of the total energy use per year.
10,000BC to 2016
The dominant energy type is biofuel and waste. Duration 8,200 years.
The second dominant energy type is oil. Duration 51 years.
The third dominant energy type is coal and peat. Duration. 10 years.
2016
The current dominant energy type is oil.
In energy eras the dominant energy types are.
10,000BC to 1800AD. 8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste.
1800 to 1945. 145 years. Biofuels and Waste.
1945 to 1980. 35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil
1980 to 2016. 36 years. Oil.
Humans have been using fossil fuels to produce energy for the last 12,016 years.
They are still using a fossil fuel; oil; as the main energy source in 2016.
Renewable energy is not yet the dominant energy source.
The results indicate a society that is totally dependent on fossil fuels.
The gradual phasing out of fossil fuels by 2020 by 34% is unlikely.
The phasing out of fossil fuels by 2050 by 80% is unlikely.
The phasing out of fossil fuels by 2030; to ensure the temperature of the Earth does not exceed a 2 deg C increase due to the emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels; is unlikely.
Any increases in energy will; to comply with the laws of thermodynamics; have to be formed from a larger source of energy input to achieve less energy output.
A replacement energy source at or above the energy value of fossil fuels is not yet available.
Fusion energy could be available by 2035.
Human Average Total Energy Production Per Person Per Year.
In energy eras the average energy production per person per year is.
10,000BC to 1800AD
8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste. Average 8.0E-02kWh/person./year.
1800 to 1945
145 years. Biofuels and Waste and limited fossil fuels. Average 6.5E+03 kWh/ person./year.
1945 to 1980
35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil and limited nuclear and fossil fuels. Average 1.4E+04 kWh/ person./year.
1980 to 2016
36 years. Oil, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Average 2.0E+04 kWh/ person./year.
The amount of energy production per person per year has been increasing 10,000BC to 2016AD.
This data also indicates that variations in population over time change the energy production per person per year.
Human Average Total Energy Production Per Year.
In energy eras the average total energy production is.
10,000BC to 1800AD
8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste. Average 4.4E+5kWh/year.
1800 to 1945
145 years. Biofuels and Waste and limited fossil fuels. Average 8.5E+12 kWh/year
1945 to 1980
35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil and limited nuclear and fossil fuels. Average 5.2E+13 kWh/year.
1980 to 2016
36 years. Oil, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Average 1.2E+14 kWh/year
The average total energy production per year has been increasing from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
The data indicates the influence of the main energy source on the total energy production per year.
Any increases in energy; to comply with the laws of thermodynamics; necessitate a larger source of energy input to achieve less energy output.
Increasingly denser energy sources are therefore being used by humans from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
Human Average Total CO2 Emission Per Year in gCo2eqkWh
In energy eras the average total CO2 emission per year are.
10,000BC to 1800AD
8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste. Average 1.0E+14 gCo2eqkWh/year.
1800 to 1945
145 years. Biofuels and Waste and limited fossil fuels. Average 2.7E+24 gCo2eqkWh/year.
1945 to 1980
35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil and limited nuclear and fossil fuels. Average 9.8E+25 gCo2eqkWh/year.
1980 to 2016
36 years. Oil, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Average 5.4E+26 gCo2eqkWh/year.
The CO2 emissions from human use of energy sources have been increasing from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
Any increases in energy; to comply with the laws of thermodynamics; necessitate a larger source of energy input to achieve less energy output. This in turn necessitates more carbon emissions. Increasingly denser energy sources are therefore producing more carbon emissions from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
Human Total CO2 Emissions in Tons
In energy eras the CO2 emissions in tons are.
10,000BC to 1800AD
8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste. Remains steady at approx. 1.0e+8 tons
1800 to 1945
145 years. Biofuels and Waste and limited fossil fuels. Increases by 2.0E+9 tons.
1945 to 1980
35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil and limited nuclear and fossil fuels. Increases by 9.0E+9
1980 to 2016
36 years. Oil, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Increases by 1.0E+10
The data in tons of CO2 emissions is limited.
The data does indicate an increase in total CO2 emissions from 1800 to 2016.
The interpolated and recorded data indicates that total CO2 emissions in tons has been increasing from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
Human Rate of Total CO2 Emissions in Tons
In energy eras the rate of CO2 emissions in tons are.
10,000BC to 2016AD. 12,016 years.
7.00 E+21 tons of emissions from 10,000 BC to 2016 over 12,016 years.
A rate of 5.8e+17 tons of emissions per year
1800 to 2015. 2015 years.
3.6E+10 tons of emissions from 1800 to 2015 over 215 years.
A rate of 2.E+08 tons of emissions per year.
From 10,000BC to 2016AD the rate of emissions is 5.8e+17 tons of emissions per year.
From 1800 to 2015 the rate of emissions is 2.E+08 tons of emissions per year.
If the rate of emissions from 1800 to 2015 is used from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
The total emissions would be 2.E+12 tons.
Therefore the rate of emissions from 1800 to 2015 is faster than that from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
Mean Temperature in Deg C of the Earth
In energy eras the mean temperature of the Earth is.
10,000BC to 1800AD.
8,200 years. Biofuels and Waste. Unknown.
1800 (1880) to 1945.
145 years. Biofuels and Waste and limited fossil fuels. Decreases by 0.09 deg C.
1945 to 1980
35 years. Coal and Peat and Oil and limited nuclear and fossil fuels. Increases by 0.01 deg C
1980 to 2016
36 years. Oil, fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. Increases by 0.72 deg C
The data on mean temperature is limited.
The recorded data begins in 1880 and runs up to 2016.
The recorded data indicates that the mean temperature of the Earth has been in a rising pattern since 1880 up to 2016.
The data indicates that the mean temperature of the Earth has risen by 1.2 deg C since 1880 up to 2016.
The Carbon Cycle Timescales of the Earth
There are two types of Carbon Cycle. Fast and Slow.
Fast
‘The time it takes carbon to move through the fast carbon cycle is measured in a lifespan. The fast carbon cycle is largely the movement of carbon through life forms on Earth, or the biosphere. Between 1015 and 1017 grams (1,000,000,000 to 100,000,000,000 metric tons) of carbon move through the fast carbon cycle every year.’
Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page3.php
Slow
‘The Slow Carbon Cycle. Through a series of chemical reactions and tectonic activity, carbon takes between 100-200 million years to move between rocks, soil, ocean, and atmosphere in the slow carbon cycle.’
Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/page2.php
Amount of CO2 on the Earth
These are the carbon ‘ pools’ of the Earth.
Atmosphere, Oceans (total), Total inorganic, Total organic, Surface layer, Deep layer, Lithosphere, Sedimentary carbonates, Kerogens, Terrestrial biosphere (total), Living biomass, Dead biomass, Aquatic biosphere, Fossil fuels (total), Coal, Oil, Gas and Other (peat).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle#Terrestrial_biosphere
Source: Falkowski, P.; Scholes, R. J.; Boyle, E.; Canadell, J.; Canfield, D.; Elser, J.; Gruber, N.; Hibbard, K.; Högberg, P.; Linder, S.; MacKenzie, F. T.; Moore b, 3.; Pedersen, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Seitzinger, S.; Smetacek, V.; Steffen, W. (2000). "The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System". Science. 290 (5490): 291–296. Bibcode:2000Sci...290..291F. doi:10.1126/science.290.5490.291. PMID 11030643.
Each part per million by volume of CO2 in the atmosphere thus represents approximately 2.13 gigatonnes of carbon. 2,129,999,999 metric tons.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
Source: "Conversion Tables". Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 26 September 2012. Retrieved 12 February 2016.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle#Terrestrial_biosphere
Source: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html
The total amount of carbon in these pools can be calculated.
15,126,532 gigatons of carbon.
15,126,532,000,000,000 metric tons.
75,045,252 gigatons of carbon.
8e+16 metric tons of carbon.
Rate, Processing Ratio, Rate Per Year of Processing Carbon by Natural Cycles of the Earth
The time to process the total amount of Carbon on Earth can be calculated.
Rate for a full slow carbon cycle is 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 years.
Processing Ratio 8e+16 metric tons of carbon in 200,000,000 years.
Rate per year of processing 400,000,000 metric tons per year.
Humans have outputted a rate of 5.8e+17; 580,000,000,000,000,000 metric tons; per year.
5.8e+17 / 400,000,000
1,450,000,000 times the natural process rate.
In 12,016 years; to match the human timescale from 10,000BC to 2016AD; the Earth could process
400,000,000 x 12,016
4,806,400,000,000 metric tons of carbon in 12,016 years.
Humans have outputted a rate of 5.8e+17 tons of emissions per year.
Over 12,016 years from 10,000BC to 2016AD this equates to.
5.8e+17 x 12,016
6.96928e+21 tons of carbon in 12,016 years.
6.96928e+21 / 4,806,400,000,000
1,450,000,000 times the natural process rate.
Humans are taking resources from the fast carbon cycle and converting them into energy in a human lifetime. This carbon; including CO2; is then put into the slow carbon cycle and processed by the Earth over 200,000,000 years.
Humans are outputting carbon more carbon than the amount the Earth can process per year.
They have been doing this for 12,016 years from 10,000BC to 2016AD.
The rate of carbon output has increased from 1800 to 2015.
The natural slow timescale to process the carbon remains as 200,000,000 years.
To remove the human influenced amount of carbon would take the Earth
6.96928e+21 / 400,000,000
92,146,435,000,000 years to process.
To remove the human influenced amount of carbon would take the Earth 92,146,435,000,000 years to process.
To remove the human influenced amount of carbon would take the Earth 1.74232e+13 years
17,423,200,000,000 years to process.
Humans have to achieve the removal of this carbon by the year 2050. 32 years.
This is unlikely to be achieved.
Conclusions
The data when compared indicates that humans influence on environment, resources and energy through artificially evolution; design; development of technology, human milestones, human population, human average total energy production per person per year, human average total energy production per year, human average total co2 emission per year in gco2eqkwh, human total co2 emissions in tons, human rate of total co2 emissions in tons, mean temperature in deg c of the Earth have all been increasing for the last 12,016 years.
The relationship of co2 and the ‘greenhouse’ effect related to global warming can be inferred from this data.
The normal human body temperature range is typically stated as 36.5–37.5 °C.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_temperature
Humans cannot survive very long below 36.5 deg C or above 37.5 deg C. 40 deg C is life threatening.
An environmental temperature increase or drop of 1 to 2 deg causes health issues.
Currently the data indicates humans are forcing the temperature of the Earth to rise by
0.8 to 2.6 deg C by 2050 and 1.4 to 5.8 deg C over pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=29
Humans are threatening their own existence by the nature of their society.
The duration that CO2 remains in the atmosphere will increase as more CO2 is emitted by human use of fossil fuels to generate energy. Since humans are; from the data; still dependant on fossil fuels to survive and outputting more carbon than the Earth can process then the duration CO2 remains in the atmosphere must increase and so the increase in global temperature cannot be reduced in a short time period of 32 years by 2050.
If the carbon emissions continue at the current rate then the mean temperature of the Earth will increase and melting of the ice on Earth becomes more likely. The amount of natural CO2 emitted from the melting of the polar ice cap, the Greenland ice sheet and the permafrost on the Earth by the effects of human forcing of the mean temperature of the Earth would increase the amount of time CO2 remained in the atmosphere and also increase the ‘greenhouse’ effect on the temperature of the Earth and so further reduce human survival ability.
Humans have to radically alter the nature of their society in order to adapt and survive climate change.
They have to achieve what the Earth would do in 17,423,200,000,000 years in 32 years.
References
Source: Data for 1750 to 1900 are from the UN report "The World at Six Billion"
Source: Data for 1950 to 2015 are from a UN data sheet "World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision". UN Population Division.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_estimates
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources
Other renewable is taken as the same as lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions as coal since it could need a fossil fuel to be created and so has the highest g/Co2eq/kWh
Source: www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2008/2008wpds.aspx
Source:http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Electricity-Generation-by-Energy-Source#tspQvChart 1980 to 2008
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.PETR.ZS 1975
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.COAL.ZS 1975
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS 1975 nat. gas
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS 1975
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS 1975
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power#First_nuclear_reactor 1942, 1954, 1956
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power#History
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy#History and links to each renewable energy type
The total energy use for 10,000BC to 1800 is estimated from the year 1800 energy use since between these dates the fuel type remains as biofuels and waste and only the population changes.
From this energy amount the energy per person based on the populations from 10,000 BC can be extrapolated.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#History 1870
Source:https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/yearbook/Series_J_No_1.World_Energy_Supplies-1929-1950.pdf 1949
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption#Energy_supply,_consumption_and_electricity 1973 IEA info
Source: https://www.iea.org/statistics/ IEA Headline Energy Data CO2 emissions 1973 tp 2017
Source:http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WorldEnergyBalances2017Overview.pdf 2015
Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html 2017 world
Source:https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Resources-Full-report-2016.10.03.pdf 2015,2016
Source: http://extraconversion.com/energy/tonnes-of-coal-equivalent 1949
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels 4000 BC coal use
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#Consensus_begins_to_form,_1980–1988
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-and-changing-energy-sources Global total energy production – long-run view by source 1800 to 2016 to tal energy use
Source: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions
Source:https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Global-CO2-emissions-by-region-since-1751.png
Total CO2 emissions in tons are calculated from the EPA calculator converting total kWh/year into carbon emissions.
Source: https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Oil
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermonuclear_weapon
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
Baseline kWh and CO2 emissions calculations for 10,000 BC interpolated from later values
2.9E+10kWh for 4,000,000 people in 10,000 BC
7250 kWh / person / year
20 kWh / person / day
Allowing 4.5kWh/kg to 4.28 kWh/kg 4.390 kWh/kg average energy and mass for wood
Source: https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fuels-higher-calorific-values-d_169.html
4.5 kg of wood would give 20 kWh / day / person
burning of 1 kg of wood will generate 1.65 to 1.80 Kg of CO2.
Source: http://www.kaltimber.com/blog/2017/6/19/how-much-co2-is-stored-in-1-kg-of-wood
4.5 x 1.80 = 8.1 kg of CO2 / person / day emissions
8.1 x 356 = 2956 kg of CO2 / person / year emissions
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
22/02/2018
14/10/2020
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