Electric vehicles, carbon emissions, energy, resource
and environment depletion?
Electric vehicles are considered a technology that can reduce human carbon emissions and energy, resource and environment depletion.
Is this currently the case ?
This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test this question.
Current Assets
The key assets that our current society is trying to manage are Energy, Resources and Environment. All are depleting. Using any of them causes the others to deplete.
Current opinions
'EVs could start delivering substantial carbon savings by 2020. But we need lots of them – at least 1.7 million EVs by 2020 and 6.4 million by 2030 – if they are to make a serious dent on car emissions.'
Source: World Wildlife Fund Electric Avenues Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK March 2011
Effects of producing Electric Cars on Energy, Resources and Environment.
The following is a list of all costs and generating requirements for EVs per year
2013 - Energy
Population = 63,395,574
Number of EV.s = 1,690,651
Production Energy / EV = 787,644 kWh
Lifetime Energy / EV = 196,911 kWh
Total Energy / EV = 984,555 kWh
Standing Charge total = £1241
Tarrif Elec/Kwh Total = £147,683
Total standing charge + tariff = £148,924
Total Elec Revenue all EVs/year = £251,778,509,524
Total Production and lifetime generating
kWh for all Evs / year = 1,664,538,895,305 kWh generating capacity
= 1,664,538,900 MWh capacity
Total Production and lifetime generating
Cost for all Evs / year £181/MWh = 1,664,538,900 x 181
= £301,281,540,900
Loss of state revenue over 20 years = £301,281,540,900 - £251,778,509,524
= £49,503,031,376
2020 - Energy
Population = 63,746,151
Number of EV.s = 1,700,000
Production Energy / EV = 792,000 kWh
Lifetime Energy / EV = 198,000 kWh
Total Energy / EV = 990,000 kWh
Standing Charge total = £1241
Tarrif Elec/Kwh Total = £148,500
Total standing charge + tariff = £149,741
Total Elec Revenue all EVs/year = £254,559,700,000
Total Production and lifetime generating
kWh for all Evs / year = 1,683,000,000,000 kWh generating capacity
= 1,683,000,000 MWh capacity
Total Production and lifetime generating
Cost for all Evs / year £190/MWh = 1,683,000,000 x 190
= £319,770,000,000,000
Loss of state revenue over 20 years = £319,770,000,000,000 - £254,559,700,000
= £319,515,440,300,000
2030 - Energy
Population = 70,000,000
Number of EV.s = 6,400,000
Production Energy / EV = 2,981,647 kWh
Lifetime Energy / EV = 745,412 kWh
Total Energy / EV = 3,727,059 kWh
Standing Charge total = £1241
Tarrif Elec/Kwh Total = £559,059
Total standing charge + tariff = £560,300
Total Elec Revenue all EVs/year = £3,585,920,000,000
Total Production and lifetime generating
kWh for all Evs / year = 23,853,177,600,000 kWh generating capacity
= 23,853,177,600 MWh capacity
Total Production and lifetime generating
Cost for all Evs / year £190/MWh = 23,853,177,600 x 212
= £5,056,873,651,200
Loss of state revenue over 20 years = £5,056,873,651,200 -
£3,585,920,000,000
= £1,470,953,651,200
2050 - Energy
Population = 77,000,000
Number of EV.s = 7,040,000
Production Energy / EV = 3,279,812 kWh
Lifetime Energy / EV = 819,953 kWh
Total Energy / EV = 4,099,765 kWh
Standing Charge total = £1241
Tarrif Elec/Kwh Total = £614,965
Total standing charge + tariff = £616,206
Total Elec Revenue all EVs/year = £4,338,090,240,000
Total Production and lifetime generating
kWh for all Evs / year = 28,862,345,600,000 kWh generating capacity
= 28,862,345,600 MWh capacity
Total Production and lifetime generating
Cost for all Evs / year £190/MWh = 28,862,345,600 x 212
= £6,118,817,267,200
Loss of state revenue over 20 years = £6,118,817,267,200 -
£4,338,090,240,000
= £1,780,727,027,200
Sources:
EV refers to Electric Vehicle.
CIA World Factbook and population increases
Electricity Generation Costs July 2013 ‘levelised cost’ average cost over the lifetime of the plant per MWh of electricity generated. Table 2: Levelised Cost Estimates for Projects Starting in 2013, 10% discount rate, £/MWh. Table 4: Levelised Cost Estimates for Projects Starting in 2019, 10% discount rate, £/MWh Table 6: Levelised Cost Estimates for Projects Commissioning in 2014, 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030, 10% discount rate, £/MWh, highs and lows reflect high and low capital cost estimates
en. wikipedia.org_wiki_Charging_station
en.wikipedia.org_wiki_Electric_vehicle_network
WWF World Wildlife Fund Electric avenues Driving home the case for electric vehicles in the UK March 2011
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0001:0015:EN:PDF.
Impacts of Electric Vehicles – ‘Deliverable 1 An overview of Electric Vehicles on the market and in development Report Delft, April 2011
Assume number of EVs by population to EV ratio of 37 to 1 see also WWF numbers for Ev’s
Assume lifespan charge rate 3.3kW for 8 hours 26.4 kW/day 150,000 mile lifespan
Assume for 20 miles / day, 7500 days, 20 year lifespan for EV and battery
Assume travel energy, 20kWh battery, 100 miles maximum travel distance
Assume a 80% - 20% production to lifetime cost and energy split
Assume 0.17p/day standing charge = 20 x 365 x 0.17p = £0.17 for electricity costs
Assume 0.15p /kwh incl vat. Tarrif for electricity costs
2013- 2050 - Resources
This quote summarises a current view
‘The average Electric Vehicles will weigh 1,289 kg, 83 kg lighter than the average European car today (1,372 kg3) ‘
Source:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:140:0001:0015:EN:PDF.
Impacts of Electric Vehicles – ‘Deliverable 1 An overview of Electric Vehicles on the market and in development Report Delft, April 2011
The average electric vehicle will save on materials if compared by weight to current vehicles.
However it is still a manufactured consumer item.
Therefore it must be considered a resource depletion product.
2013- 2050 – Environment
This quote summarises a current view
‘Therefore, unless countries with power generation of a high CO2 intensity significantly decarbonize their power generation, BEVs may only slightly reduce or in some cases may even increase the CO2 emissions coming from automobile transport. To construe this as an argument against BEV adoption is to miss the larger picture. Instead, this should be viewed as an added incentive to reduce the CO2 intensity of the power generation mix so that the potential CO2 emissions reductions gains from BEV adoption can be maximized.’
Source:
Modeling theCO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries Reed T.Doucette n, Malcolm D.McCulloch Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford,Thom Building, Parks Road, OxfordOX13PJ, United Kingdom R.T. Doucette, M.D. McCulloch / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 803–811
Conclusion
Fossil fuel sources are being reduced by 24% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050 globally to try and control the ongoing increase in climate change temperatures caused by human activity.
This reduction in fossil fuels will reduce generating capacity for electricity to need only levels.
Renewable energy sources are being manufactured using the remaining allowable fossil fuel energy reserves to replace the current global fossil fuel generation system.
Other products that are not energy generators are becoming luxuries.
Electric Cars are a consumer luxury product.
They cannot save ongoing energy use by being manufactured since the existing fossil fuelled manufacturing plants are manufacturing them.
They cannot save energy use during there lifetime currently since the renewable sector is not large enough to generate power to charge them.
They are lighter than current vehicles but still use depleting resources to be manufactured.
They can be a way to reduce carbon emissions and so assist the control of human activity related global warming if they can be manufactured on a need basis through re-newables.
They have a carbon footprint that cannot be recovered without loss of more energy resources to power recycling.
The electric car is therefore a technology that needs to be developed now if it is to be part of the future activity of human life. If it is not manufactured now then the ability to manufacture will reduce and the technology lost.
Humans need a passive form of transport.
This is related to their settlement size, its location and their personal needs.
Electric cars have yet to be amalgamated into this framework.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
10/10/2013
14/10/2020
1323 words over 4 pages